英伟达股价飙升破200美元:GTC大会引爆AI革命,市场情绪高涨 Amit Kukreja 2025-10-28

市场狂热:AI 引领股市创下激动人心的一天

今天真是个了不得的日子。对于股市,尤其是人工智能(AI)领域来说,我们可能从未经历过如此激动人心的一天。今年确实有过一些疯狂的日子,但就 AI 相关的更新而言,今天绝对是无与伦比的。

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What a day. What a day, folks. I don't know if we have had a more exciting day in the stock market, particularly for AI. We've definitely had some crazy days this year, but when it comes to AI updates, what a day. What a day, ladies and gentlemen.

全球市值最高的公司英伟达(Nvidia)股价达到了200美元。它不仅突破了200美元大关,而且当我和 Tanner 结束 GTC(GPU Technology Conference: 由英伟达主办的全球人工智能技术大会)直播时,股价还在198美元,随后一度冲高至203美元,目前稳定在201美元左右。天哪,这太惊人了。

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The most valuable company on the planet, Nvidia. $200. Not only did it break 200, it was 198 when Tanner and I finished our GTC stream. It's at 203. Well, it hit 203. Right now, it's at 201. I mean, my goodness, dude.

今天有太多东西需要分析和讨论。此外,我们还有一大批公司发布财报。在接下来的15分钟里,我们将迎来海量的财报数据。财报发布后,我们会更深入地探讨今天发生的其他事件。

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There's a lot to analyze, a lot to talk about today. We got a bunch to get into. And so, we will get into all that. Not to mention, we got a bunch of earnings. So, in the next 15 minutes, we will have a ton of earnings to look through, all the results on those earnings. And then after those earnings, we'll get into more of what happened today.

各大科技股市场表现概览

看一下其他股票的表现:Palantir 回到了190美元。特斯拉上涨1.63%。Robinhood 曾触及148美元,现报147美元。SoFi 表现不错,从最低的28美元强势回升至31.50美元,看起来能在31美元以上收盘,这将是一个积极的信号。AMD 当天基本持平。

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You got Palantir right here back to 190. Tesla up 1.63%. Robinhood touched 148 right now at 147. SoFi nice recovery fell all the way to 28 right back to 31.50. So getting a $31 close which looks like will happen in the next 10 minutes is definitely going to be productive. AMD slightly flat on the day.

标普500指数一度达到688.91点,显然是受到了英伟达的提振。苹果公司市值也曾一度达到4万亿美元,但现在有所回落,大约两小时前还在4万亿的水平。微软则稳稳守住了4万亿美元的市值。今天一开盘,微软就宣布他们正式持有 OpenAI 27%的股份,这是一笔价值1350亿美元的股权投资。这则消息也为今天一系列重磅发布拉开了序幕,最终由英伟达的行动画上句号,这些都是市场期待已久的消息。

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And then you got the S&P 500 that did hit 688.91 obviously being helped by Nvidia. Apple also hit 4 trillion at one point. It's losing 4 trillion now. It was at 4 trillion about two hours ago. 269 right here. And then Microsoft is holding 4 trillion. Microsoft started off the day by saying they officially have a 27% stake in OpenAI. That's a $135 billion equity stake. And that kind of started a bunch of the announcements that we got today. Kind of capping it off with Nvidia basically making the moves that everyone was waiting for Nvidia to officially make. That was said today.

黄仁勋的重磅炸弹:5000亿美元收入指引

现在,我们来深入分析一下英伟达的情况。首先,我们会观看 Karp 和 Jensen 的访谈,但要先过一遍财报。访谈视频大约11分钟,财报结束后我会播放完整片段。如果你现在就想看,可以去我的推特,链接在描述里。

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Now, why is Nvidia up? There's a lot to analyze, a lot to go through. We're going to talk about what's happening with Nvidia. The number one thing for everyone to remember, and yes, we will watch the Karp Jensen interview. I want to watch the full interview, but we're going to get through earnings. And so after earnings, I'll play the entire clip. It's about 11 minutes. You guys can watch it. If you really want to watch it right now, it's on my Twitter. Twitter's in the description. So, if you want to leave the stream right now, go watch the interview first. It's on Twitter. But we will watch it all together after earnings.

英伟达给出了业绩指引——虽然不能说是正式的,但这是黄仁勋(Jensen Huang)在舞台上亲口说的,所以华尔街基本把它当作正式指引来解读。他预测将实现5000亿美元的收入,而且不是在未来六个季度,而是在未来五个季度,这一点彻底改变了游戏规则。我认为,当这个澄清消息公布后,股价才真正开始飙升。当他最初说5000亿时,股价从193美元涨到196美元;而在过去一小时,当市场明确了他指的是五个季度后,股价直接冲上了200美元。

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Nvidia guided, I don't want to say formally guided, but Jensen said it on stage, so I guess the street is taking it in as formal of a way as you can imagine. $500 billion dollars of revenue over not the next six quarters apparently it's over the next five quarters which really changes things and I think when that clarification was announced that is when the stock really started getting a move when he said 500 billion it went from 193 to 196 and then over the past hour when it was clarified that he meant five quarters we bumped up to 200.

顺便说一句,这个预测不包括中国的收入。黄仁勋表示,能获得中国市场的收入当然很好,但他对未来五个季度5000亿美元的预测完全没有计入中国部分。此外,另一个重点是,黄仁勋基本确认了实现这一收入增长的轨迹是可持续的。而华尔街对他们未来五个季度的预期仅为3800亿美元。这意味着英伟达的指引比市场预期高出了整整1200亿美元。因此,英伟达股价大涨了5%,今天市值增加了2500亿美元。

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By the way that is excluding China revenue. Jensen said it would be very nice to get China revenue but my forecast of 500 billion over the next five quarters has nothing to do with China revenue. On top of that, the other thing that's really important about this is Jensen basically said the trajectory for us to be able to get to this revenue growth is sustainable. And the street has them at 380 billion. So you're talking about a $120 billion increase in what the street was expecting over the next five quarters. And as a result, you got Nvidia right here pumping 5%. Nvidia has added 250 billion market cap to its overall valuation today.

关于中国市场,黄仁勋的原话是:“重返中国对英伟达来说将是一个巨大的红利。我暂且假设中国市场收入为零。我相信特朗普会与中国达成一份好协议。美国需要更多能源来维持产业增长。AI 行业并非泡沫,它在未来五个季度代表着5000亿美元的机遇。”

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What Jensen said on China was quote, "A return to China would be a huge bonus for Nvidia. I assume the China market will remain at zero for now. I'm confident Trump will reach a good deal with China. The US needs a lot more energy to sustain industry growth. The AI sector is not in a bubble. It represents a $500 billion opportunity over the next five quarters."

估值讨论:现在是卖出时机吗?

那么,我们应该减仓吗?几个小时前 Tanner 问了这个问题。我不想听起来过于亢奋,我知道我们现在都很兴奋,因为有这么多重磅消息。但如果这是一个5000亿美元的机会,而市场的预期只有3800亿,我认为英伟达的股价还会继续上涨。

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So, I mean, look, should we be trimming our positions? You know, Tanner asked that question a couple hours ago. I mean, I don't want to sound super euphoric, right? And I get that all of us sound super excited right now because we're all bowled up and we got all these big announcements, but I mean, if this is a $500 billion opportunity and the street has them at 380. I think Nvidia is going higher.

别忘了,从远期收益来看,英伟达仍然是估值偏低的科技公司之一。如果英伟达的交易价格接近其真实估值——Tanner 认为大约在245到250美元之间——你可能会说,“哦,这是一个合理的估值”,而且它也不会比沃尔玛或好市多更贵。截至昨天,沃尔玛和好市多的估值仍然比英伟达高,考虑到它们的增长速度远不及英伟达,这简直是疯了。

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Nvidia, remember, Nvidia is still one of the more undervalued tech companies that's out there when you look at them on a forward earnings basis. If Nvidia was trading at anywhere near its actual valuation, I think Tanner has them around 245 to 250. You could say, "Oh, that's an appropriate valuation for Nvidia and it wouldn't be more expensive than or as cheap as Walmart or or Costco." I don't know about the forward projections right now. I have to look at them, but Walmart and Costco as of yesterday were still more expensive than Nvidia, which is insanity given they're not growing at those levels.

看看其他公司:微软上涨2%,Palo Alto Networks 上涨0.74%,CrowdStrike 也上涨3%,创下历史新高。从这个角度看,我不认为英伟达、AMD 或博通是卖出的时机。我认为所有这些半导体公司都在同步上涨。此外,明天我们还将迎来降息。博通股价也创下历史新高,达到374美元。如果降息伴随着潜在的市场融涨,那么情况可能会变得非常令人兴奋。我真的不认为在当前水平上卖出是容易的选择。英伟达市值达到5万亿美元的股价是204美元,目前我们是4.901万亿,还没到5万亿。

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Microsoft right there, that's up 2%. Palo Alto, that's up 74%. Then Crowd Strike is also up right here 3% all-time high. So from that perspective, I don't think Nvidia is a sell. I don't think AMD is a sell. I don't think Broadcom's a sell. I think all these semiconductors are moving with each other. Also, we got rate cuts coming tomorrow. Broadcom, look at that. All-time highs at 374. That one's moving as well. And if you got rate cuts coming along with a potential meltup, I mean, there is a world where this thing really gets exciting, then I just don't think it's the easiest sell at these levels. 5 trillion is going to be at 204. We're at 4.901 trillion on Nvidia and we are not at 5 trillion yet.

板块轮动与关键合作

为什么数据中心相关的股票在下跌?老实说,我不太清楚。它们早上确实有过一波上涨。我的一个逻辑推断是,人们可能正在卖掉这些股票,转而买入英伟达。比如 Grab 早上还在620美元,现在是593美元。Reddit 从220美元跌到214美元。Google 从270美元跌到26美元。很多股票都在下跌,可能是因为人们在进行板块轮动,想要更多流动性来购买像英伟达这样的公司。

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Now, why are the data center plays selling off? Honestly, I don't really know. I mean, look, they had a bit of a pump in the morning. One could argue and maybe someone has a better reason than I have, but my sort of logical reason here is that people are selling some of these plays to to pile into Nvidia. I mean, Grab was at freaking 620 in the morning. Now it's at 593. Reddit was at 220, now it's at 214. Google was at 270, now 26. I mean, you got a lot of names that are just selling off potentially because people are rotating and they just want more liquidity to be able to buy things like an Nvidia.

英伟达今天也提到了许多公司,包括 CrowdStrike、Uber、Nebius Core,当然还有 Palantir。这些公司今天波动较大。我们将在财报后讨论 Palantir,目前股价为189.75美元。黄仁勋和 Karp 几年来首次同台,谈论他们的新合作关系。看到这一幕真的很酷。

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Or any of the companies that Nvidia mentioned, which by the way, you got the Crowdstrike mentioned, you got the Uber mentioned, you got the Nebius Core mentioned, even though those are more data center place and that's why they're more volatile today. And you finally got the Palantir mentioned. We are going to be talking about that after these earnings. Palantir 189.75. Jensen and Karp finally were seen together for the first time in a couple years actually talking about their new partnership. There they are together right there on CNBC. We're going to listen to that later. But it is really cool to see that happening.

我觉得黄仁勋今天就像圣诞老人,他提到了整个 AI 产业链中可能受益的每一家公司,这也是为什么英伟达能获得如此强劲的势头。如果我们能收于200美元以上,那将是非常看涨的信号。即使收在198或199美元,我认为也已经非常了不起了。但看起来市场有动力推动股价收于200美元以上。今天在200美元价位有百万股的卖单等着,所以买盘压力巨大。成交量达到了2.62亿股,而平均成交量是1.58亿股,说明今天有更多人入场。

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And I kind of think Jensen was like Santa Claus today and he kind of helped talk about every single company that could benefit in the overall AI stack and that's why you see Nvidia getting some momentum. I mean if we close above 200 that would be bullish. Yes, we're not at 203. Maybe we don't close at 201. If we can just get even like a 198 199 close, I think would be amazing. But it looks like the street has some momentum to close above 200. There were a million shares waiting to be sold at 200. So, tons of buying pressure coming in. 262 million shares of volume today. 158 million is the average. So, you got a lot more people coming in today.

有人提到,在 FOMC(Federal Open Market Committee: 联邦公开市场委员会,负责制定美国货币政策)会议前市场出现回调可能是件好事。我同意,你不想在会议前市场情绪过于高涨。一点回调能为会后的上涨留出空间。明天我们将迎来 FOMC 会议,这非常重要。

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Broccoli said red going into FOMC may be a good thing. I agree. You don't want to be all bowled up before FOMC. want a little bit of a pullback so that FOMC gives you some room to run and then tomorrow we are going to get FOMC which is going to be important.

盘后财报速览

好了,我们有哪些财报呢?我们将在讨论财报的同时,更多地谈论 AI 及其所有相关公告。财报发布大约会从4点持续到4点20分,届时我们应该能拿到所有数据,然后再回到 AI 的话题。今天发布财报的公司有:Visa、Enphase、Mondelez、Seagate、Bloom Energy、EA、Cheesecake Factory 等等。

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All right, so what earnings do we have? We'll talk a lot more about AI and all the announcements of AI as we get into the earnings. So earnings will probably be from like 4 to 4:20. We should get all the numbers and then we'll get back to AI bookings today. Visa, Nphase, Mandelus, Seagate, Bloom Energy, EA Cheesecake, and then a few more companies. Let me know in the chat if anyone owns any of the names that you're seeing right here on the screen.

为什么数据中心股票会下跌?我的理由可能不是最好的,即人们卖出它们去买英伟达,因为如果你看好英伟达,理论上也应该看好数据中心。所以,我也不确定。你也可以归咎于算法交易。我知道人们讨厌这个答案,但很多这类股票之前一起上涨,现在可能也一起被抛售,这并不奇怪。毕竟,这些股票今年都涨了很多,所以每次下跌时,总会有人想获利了结。

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Why else do people think data centers are dumping? Because I mean, again, my reason is probably not the best that people are selling to buy more Nvidia because technically data center plays if you're excited for Nvidia, right? So, I don't know. I mean, you could also chalk it up to ALGO. I know people hate hearing that response, but a lot of them ran together. They might be just getting sold off together, which is not that crazy. Again, all of these stocks are up a lot this year. So, you know, every time they get sold off, it's just important to remember they are up a ton. And there's always going to be people that potentially want to take some profits, especially if they see a little bit of the downside action.

人形机器人革命升温

另一则重大新闻是,机器人公司 Neo 今天正式开始销售机器人,售价为2万美元。这对英伟达来说也是一个催化剂,因为归根结底,这些机器人都将由英伟达的芯片驱动。

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NEO, the robot company, they are officially selling robots today for $20,000. That was another big piece of news, which is another catalyst for Nvidia because at the end of the day, robots are going to be powered with these chips. Here is the video that they put out today showing that these robots are officially for sale.

更多的人形机器人出现了,这显然是很多人期待已久的革命。我很好奇它在家庭中的实用性如何?它真的能做很多事吗?比如洗碗、洗衣服?如果它真的那么厉害,售价2万美元或每月500美元,那人们不禁会问,特斯拉、Figure 和 Apptronik 这些公司在做什么?

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More humanoid robots. Obviously, this is the revolution a lot of people have been waiting for. I wonder how productive it's going to be in the home. Can it actually do a ton of stuff? Uh, can it actually, you know, wash the dishes and do the laundry? If so, and if it's actually 20,000 early access or $500 a month, if it actually is legit, I mean, one could argue what the hell is going on with Tesla? What the hell is going on with Figure? What's going on with Apptronik, right?

Figure 的 CEO Brett Adcock 今天也出席了 GTC。如果这家我不太了解的 Neo 公司推出的机器人真的名副其实,那竞争就激烈了。当然,我认为 Brett 和特斯拉的目标是工业应用场景,比如亚马逊和沃尔玛的工厂,而不仅仅是家用。我不知道 Neo 的机器人能否在亚马逊的工厂里工作,但这个领域的竞争确实在白热化。

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All these guys are talking about this humanoid robot revolution. Brett Adcock, CEO of Figure, was at GTC today. If this Neo company, which I don't know much about, but if they're launching these robots and they're like legit, I don't know. Now granted, I think Brett and Tesla are going for industrial use cases like an Amazon and Walmart, etc., not just like only being in the home. At least that's what they publicly said. That's one of the core things they want to focus on. I don't know if that NEO thing is going to be able to work inside of an Amazon factory, but it is heating up. It is absolutely heating up.

Neo 不是一家中国公司,它来自 1X Technologies,是一家挪威公司,成立于2014年。所以这是一家挪威公司,但他们确实有一款正式上市的机器人。

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Neo is not a Chinese company I think. I don't think they're Chinese. There's a bunch of humanoid robot companies that are Chinese. No, no, it's from 1x Technologies. It's Norwegian. This company is Norwegian. Yeah. Founded in Norway in 2014. Okay. So, this one is not a Chinese company, but they do have a robot that officially is out there.

GTC 大会亮点与市场收盘

这是我见过的最棒的 GTC 大会之一。我大概看过过去一年的三届,但这届是最好的,因为它宣布的合作规模空前。黄仁勋谈到的另一个重要合作是与美国能源部(DOE)的合作。他们将与能源部共同建造七台新的超级计算机,这与 AMD 昨天宣布的10亿美元合作项目类似。黄仁勋宣布他们将与能源部进行更多投资。这看起来预示着更多的合作和更广阔的增长前景,英伟达将与众多公司合作,共同发展整个 AI 生态系统。

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And this was one of the best GTCs I've ever seen. I think I've watched three of them over the past year. This was the best one due to the scale of partnerships that they announced. Another big partnership that Jensen talked about was the DOE. So they now have seven new supercomputers they're going to be building with the Department of Energy. Same thing that AMD announced yesterday. It was a $1 billion partnership. Jensen announced that they're going to be investing even more with the DOE. So, it just looks like a lot more partnerships, a lot more growth trajectory that's baked into Nvidia and a ton of different companies that they're going to be working with to develop this entire AI ecosystem.

市场收盘了。英伟达收盘价为201.20美元,成功站上200美元大关,这绝对是令人难以置信的。Robinhood 收于146美元,Palantir 收于189美元。特斯拉今天上涨了1.8%,收于460美元,表现不错。

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All right, we are done for the day. Here we go. Nvidia, she gets the $200 close. She gets the $200 close. 201.20 for Nvidia. Absolutely incredible to see. Robin gets the 146 close. Palantir gets 189. Tesla, not sure why Tesla ran today, but Tesla did run up 1.8% 460. So, not too bad.

盘后财报深度解读

好了,让我们来看看财报。对于这些公司,即使你不持有它们的股票,我们关注的也是营收和利润是否超出预期,尤其是利润,也就是 EPS(Earnings Per Share: 每股收益,衡量公司盈利能力的关键指标)。如果 EPS 超出预期,意味着利润率在提高,这对公司是更好的。

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All right, earnings. Let's get into it. What do we got? What do we have? Even if you don't own these names, we're looking for beats on the top and the bottom. More importantly, the top. More importantly, the top. If we can, or sorry, the bottom, the EPS. If we can beat on EPS, that means margins are increasing, and that is better for companies.

  • Bookings:营收和利润双双超预期。EPS 同比增长19%,营收同比增长13%。因此股价有所上涨。
  • Co-Star (CSGP):营收和利润双双超预期。这是一家为商业地产行业提供信息分析和营销服务的美国公司,市值330亿美元,盘后上涨4%。
  • Enphase:尽管 EPS 和营收都以两位数的百分比超预期,但股价却在下跌。盘后一度下跌9%,现在跌幅收窄至7%。
  • Bloom Energy:营收和利润双双超预期。EPS 同比增长了惊人的1600%,营收也超预期21%。股价盘后开始上涨。
  • Electronic Arts (EA):EPS 大幅超预期54%,但营收略微低于预期3%。市场似乎可以忽略营收的小幅失利,因为 EPS 的表现太抢眼了。
  • Seagate:营收和利润双双超预期。EPS 同比增长65%,营收同比增长21%。盘后股价上涨2%。
  • Visa:营收和利润均超预期,但幅度不大。营收同比增长12%,EPS 同比增长10%。股价盘后下跌1%。
  • Mondelez(奥利奥母公司):营收和利润双双超预期。他们表示,由于在生成式 AI 模型上的投入,广告成本削减了4000万美元。
  • Cheesecake Factory:EPS 超预期,但营收未达预期。尽管如此,营收仍同比增长5%。
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Bookings beats on the top and the bottom 4% and 3% 4% on EPS, 3% on revenue. EPS is up 19% year-over-year. Revenue is up 13% year-over-year. That is why bookings is getting a bit of a move right there. Co-Star. This is CSGP. It looks like they have a beat on the top and the bottom is a $33 billion company beat by 21% on EPS. CSGP Co-star is an American provider of information analytics and marketing services to the commercial property industry. That stock up after hours 4%. Enphase is dumping. That is a real dump. Enphase is down 7%, 9% now after hours. Beat by 36% on EPS, 90 versus 66. Beat by 11% on revenue, 410 versus 369. Really? They're going to dump it on a double beat. Bloom Energy, ticker symbol BE. Wow, a double beat. 50% EPS 15 cents versus 10 cents. EPS is up, 1600% year-over-year. Revenue 519 versus 428 beat by 21%. EA, we have a This is our first miss. Uh EA did have a little bit of a beat. EPS 54% beat. 54 cents a share versus 35 cents expected. Revenue very slight miss by 3%. I think the streak can overlook that revenue miss, but the EPS beat is the story. We got Seagate 2.60 versus 2.40. That's another beat on the bottom line and then a beat on the top line. 2.6 versus 2.55 billion in revenue. EPS is up 65% year-over-year. Visa 2.98 versus 2.97. That's a beat by 1 cent. And then 10.72 versus 10.62. That's a beat by 1%. Revenue is up 12% year-over-year. EPS is up 10% year-over-year. Visa is down 1%. Mandles is down. This is the company that owns Oreo. They beat on the top of the bottom. 73 cents versus 71 cents expected. We got cheesecake. EPS 68 cents revenue missed. even though revenue is still up 5% year-over-year.

一个明显的趋势是,很少有公司在 EPS 上表现不佳,而且很多公司的 EPS 都实现了两位数的超预期增长,这显示了整个市场的利润效率。

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You're just not seeing a trend in companies not beating by EPS and you're getting some of that momentum. The EPS beats, I mean, very few companies are not beating by EPS. And that's what matters, I would say, more than revenue. Revenue is more a function of demand. EPS is more so a function of internal efficiencies. A lot of these companies are proving that they deserve capital as they're beating on EPS, which is very, very, very nice to see.

深度访谈:黄仁勋与Karp谈AI、制造业与未来

以下是 CNBC 对英伟达 CEO 黄仁勋和 Palantir CEO Alex Karp 的访谈节选。

主持人: Alex,我想从你开始。Palantir 的 CEO,你能解释一下这是否意味着没有人类干预吗?以 Lowe's 为例,这会如何运作?

Alex Karp: 首先,我很高兴能和一位被许多人认为是我有生以来最伟大的企业家之一、一位爱国者同台。我们有一款名为 Ontology 的产品,你可以把它想象成你企业的数字代表,包括安全模型。它能弥补大型语言模型的不足,让你能将决策权下放到一线,无论是否有人参与。在 Lowe's 和其他企业的案例中,它能实现决策自动化,比如你的供应链如何运作,如果发生变化会怎样,如何在可能出现中断的情况下将最便宜的商品送到正确的地方。

我认为我们合作的特别之处在于,我们能将效率提升两倍,未来甚至更快。你会得到更快、更便宜的解决方案,并且因为可以进行更精细的控制。宏观上我最兴奋的是,这对我们国家意义重大:因为这些技术,你可以在美国进行制造业,让工人更强大、更优秀,并且有更多的竞争。你可以使用开放权重的模型、开源模型,可以使用任何超大规模云服务商,也可以选择不使用。这对美国、对工人、对工业都好得多。

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>> Well, first of all, I'm delighted to be on the stage with what many people I believe to be one of the great entrepreneurs of of my lifetime and a patriot. Um and it means a lot to me to be here. Um so we we have a product called Ontology. You could think of it as a essentially a digital representative of your enterprise including security model which essentially takes the disabilities that have large language models and allows you to move decision-making to the front line with people without people depending on how you're doing it. um in the context of Lowe's and and other enterprises allows you to essentially automate decision- making like how would your supply chain work how would it work if it changed uh how do you get the cheapest good to the right place given that there may be disruption but in general what's very very special I believe about our our partnership is we're going to be able to move 2x and I think in the future even faster so you get a much much faster and actually because you can control it in a more granular way much faster much cheaper and then the macro thing that I'm actually most excited about which for our country is because of that you can do manufacturing in America you can make the workers stronger and better and you have more competition because you can use open weight models open source models you can use you can use any hyperscaler you can decide not to use a hyperscaler this is much much better for America much better for workers much better for industry it's cheaper it's faster and obviously they have one of the world's top tech teams and we work very well with them.

主持人: Jensen,关于这次合作,硬件由谁采购?是像 Lowe's 这样的公司需要预付成本,购买你们的 GPU,然后与 Palantir 合作吗?

Jensen Huang: 首先,Palantir 的 Ontology 平台能取得如此成就,成为全球增长最快的企业平台,这本身就令人惊叹。它为企业提供了我们都想要的东西:智能和快速做出正确决策的能力。现在,我们将首次用英伟达的加速计算为其注入超强动力。英伟达的 CUDA 加速计算将被整合进去,我们将在其之上部署英伟达的 AI 库和我们共同开发的开源模型,并将其融入 Ontology 平台。你可以在任何云端、本地甚至私有云中运行它。如你所知,英伟达无处不在。

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>> First of all, it's amazing to think that the Palantir ontology platform has achieved all of this and they're the fastest enterprise growing platform in the world. Um in a lot of ways it gives enterprises what we all want which is intelligence and and the ability to make good decisions fast. and and now we're going to supercharge it with Nvidia's accelerated computing for the first time. And so Nvidia's CUDA accelerated computing is going to get integrated. We're going to be able to put uh Nvidia's AI libraries on top of that and open source model that that we're working on together in into the ontology platform and you'll run it in the cloud any cloud or you run it on prem or even a private cloud. And so, as you know, Nvidia runs everywhere. And so, you could buy a server from HP or Dell. Uh, you could be in another country and you want to set up your own private cloud. We got no trouble with that. And and so, it doesn't matter. We run everywhere. And Palantir runs everywhere.

主持人: 那么,AI 效率是否会取代劳动力?

Alex Karp: 当你说人类不必参与决策回路时,并不意味着在某些情况下人类就不需要参与。例如,40年前,我们的制造业岗位是现在的40倍。现在你可以创造更多的制造业岗位,这些都是工人阶级。你可以建造过去无法建造的东西,而这些工人变得比过去更有价值。在国防领域,有些情况人类必须参与;而在防御等情况下,人类则不应参与。我们的合作让所有这些用例对工人、制造业、国防和进攻都更有利。

Jensen Huang: 每当一个企业变得更有效率,能更快地行动,它的业务就会增长,就会雇佣更多的人。所以,那种认为 AI 会抢走工作的想法,我认为它会改变每个人的工作,这是肯定的。但我认为它会使公司更有效率。我们今天因为 AI 而更有效率,我们正在雇佣更多的人。

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>> Uh you know it's interesting when you say humans don't have to be in the loop that doesn't inherently mean there aren't cases where humans need to be in the loop. For example, 40 years ago, we had 40x more manufacturing jobs than we have now. So it's like you can make more manufacturing jobs which are humans, working-class humans. You can build things you couldn't build in the past. And those humans become more and more valuable than they were in the past. In the defense context, you have situations where humans have to be in the loop. Offense situations where humans shouldn't be in the loop like defense. Our collaboration makes all those use cases better for workers, for manufacturing, for defense, for offense. >> Whenever a business is more productive, whenever they can move faster, their business grows, they hire more people. And so, so I think this this idea that that AI uh is going to take jobs is going to change everyone's job. That's for sure. But I think it's going to make companies more productive. We're more productive today because of AI. We're hiring more people.

主持人: 你与白宫关系密切,他们是否担心工人的问题?

Jensen Huang: 看看特朗普总统在做什么。我与他的第一次通话、第一次会面,谈的都是“美国制造”,将制造业迁回美国。这创造了大量的就业机会。我们正在谈论的是 AI 工业革命,所有这些 AI 工厂都创造了大量工作岗位。他正处于创造就业的模式中,将制造业带回美国。

Alex Karp: AI 对工人阶级极其有利。现在你可以争论它对顾问是否有利,那是一个非常不同的话题。但你会看到制造业的回归。AI 是第一项缩小了技术鸿沟的技术。过去所有不知道如何编程的人,现在都确切地知道如何编程了。它就叫 AI。

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>> Look, look at what President Trump is doing. The first thing he my first phone call, my first meeting with them, it's manufacturing in America. Move manufacturing back to United States. It creates tons of jobs. If we could move manufacturing the core technology, we have better security, national security. We have create more jobs. Second, because we're talking about the AI industrial revolution, all of these AI factories creates a ton of jobs. And so we're we're really he's really in the job creation mode bringing manufacturing back to United States. >> AI is is is exceedingly good for working-class workers. Now you could argue is it good for consultants and people that that's a very different debate. But you're going to see remanufacturing. >> Everybody knows how to use an AI because AI is smart. And so AI is the first technology that has closed the technology divide. Everybody who didn't know how to program computers in the past, they know exactly how to program a computer now. It's called AI.

主持人: 关于中国,你认为会获得更多许可吗?

Jensen Huang: 重要的是,我们需要赢得全世界的开发者,而中国有非常多的开源开发者。不让他们基于美国技术进行开发是一个错误。我们都同意希望美国获胜,问题只在于我们的策略是什么。我听过最好的框架之一来自 David Sacks,他谈到想象五年后,我们希望美国技术在全球的市场份额是多少?是80%还是20%?他和我一样相信,我们希望世界建立在美国的技术标准之上。AI 是我们的优势,我们不能失去它。我们拥有芯片、基础设施、技术、模型和人才。

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>> well you know I think the the the important thing to take away is that that we need to win developers all over the world and there are so many open source developers in China I think it's a it's a mistake not to have them build on American tech so that's number one number two we all agree um that that we want America to win the only questions what's our strategy in doing so and and one of one of the best frameworks that I I uh I've heard uh is is David Sacks talking about imagine five years from now where do we want suppose American technology was around the world where do we want American technology market share to be do you want it to be 80% or you want it to be 20%. and and he believes and I as I believe that that um uh we want the world to be built on American tech standards. We want the same thing that happened in the in the good old days when when we first started wireless technology and it's no longer built on American standards and we really want to go back to those days and AI is ours to lose just as Alex was talking about earlier. We have the chips, we have the infrastructure, we have the technology, we have the models, we have the people. This is ours and we have and we will have the power. that this is ours to lose and we just got to get on top of it and make it happen.

Alex Karp: 重要的是,中国业务已经不在英伟达的预测中了。如果发生任何变化,都将是锦上添花。

Jensen Huang: 是的,我们假设为零。如果总统创造了奇迹,那对国家来说将是一个额外的红利。

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>> And the important thing is is China is out of Nvidia's forecast. If anything happens, >> you said zero, right? >> At zero. And if if the president pulls pulls out a miracle and it'll just be a bonus for the country.

分析师视角:为何英伟达股价创历史新高?

以下是与半导体行业分析师 Jose Najarro 的对话节选。

主持人: 你认为今天股价创下历史新高的原因是什么?

Jose Najarro: 毫无疑问,是他们给出的关于 Ruben 和 Blackwell 芯片的半万亿(5000亿)美元可见性数字。我还需要重看一遍主题演讲来消化,但这个5000亿美元的数字是推动股价上涨的最重要因素。它表明分析师们仍然严重低估了 AI 芯片的潜力。这让我再次觉得,我对 AI 市场的看好程度还远远不够。

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>> Uh, I mean, easily, easily that number they gave with the Reuben and uh, Blackwell numbers of uh, half a trillion visibility. I mean, I I still I'm going to rewatch um, the keynote because these keynotes, we hear a lot of great things. Um but to digest them and to kind of put them in perspective of what kind of total addressable market they can hit. Um it takes some time for me. But this $500 billion figure from the keynote was the most important thing um in my opinion that really dropped jumped the stock. It shows that analysts are still very under estimating what this can do in forms of AI chips and this is visibility. Uh this to me I I feel like every time I come here I say I'm not bullish enough. And reasons like this this continues to show me that I'm not bullish enough in the AI market.

主持人: 除了5000亿这个数字,从技术角度看,你认为 GTC 上还有什么让华尔街如此兴奋?

Jose Najarro: 这次 GTC 超出了我的预期,是我最喜欢的一届之一。除了收入数字,第二件事是他们宣布赢得了与美国政府机构合作的多个大型超级计算机项目。七台超级计算机,其中一些配置了高达10万个 Blackwell GPU,需求非常惊人。第三件有趣的事是他们发布了所谓的 NVQ Link,这是一种连接 GPU 和 QPU(量子处理单元)的能力。这正是英伟达成为 AI 领域核心玩家的关键——他们的 NVLink 技术。如果 NVQ Link 在量子领域能起到类似作用,一旦市场爆发,将为他们创造巨大的护城河。

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>> This was probably one of my favorite GTC's in the wild. Um, maybe because I was coming with low expectations and they kind of uh uh blew it out the waters. Uh, some interesting things that I uh I found I have my notes here. So obviously the number one was like that revenue number. I think that was crucial. Uh the second thing I would say is they they announced some massive supercomputer wins with the United States governments or US agencies. Seven supercomputers is pretty amazing. I saw some crazy 100,000 blackwell GPUs in some of them. Uh so the demand there is wild. Um the third thing that I found pretty interesting and it's they announced what called what is called NVQ link. Uh so it's the ability uh to kind of connect GPUs and QPUs. This is what actually has made Nvidia kind of like a core component or the main player in the AI space is their envy link. If the NVQ link is something similar for the quantum space, I think this could if that market picks up and becomes a massive revenue opportunity that creates that moat there.

市场展望:我们是否足够乐观?

以下是与市场分析师 Steven Fiorillo 的对话节选。

主持人: 你今天休息,有什么感悟?

Steven Fiorillo: 我得出一个结论:我们还不够乐观。甚至有一种可能,我们周五就能看到标普500指数达到7000点。我甚至要说,如果本周市场表现良好,我将把我的年终目标上调到7200点。因为如果本周我们能安然度过,我看不到任何能让市场下跌的因素。你有降息预期,还有五大科技巨头的财报,如果它们业绩爆表,我们很容易就能达到7000点。

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>> come to a conclusion. We're not bullish enough. And how about this? There's a world where we hit 7,000 on Friday. There is also a world I can't believe I'm going to freaking say this with conviction, like not trolling. I can't believe I'm going to say it because if I say it, I can't take it back, right? I feel like the words that want to come out of my mouth is I have to raise my end of year target to 7,200 if this week goes well because and here's why. I don't see anything taking this market down if we get out of this week in the green. And here's why. Yay cut in the big five if they smash we're at just under 6,900. You don't have to. You could get two good days and be at 7,000 at this point.

主持人: 你认为有什么看空市场的理由吗?

Steven Fiorillo: 我一直在试图找出能打击市场的因素,但我找不到。唯一可能的是美联储突然说,“我们被吓到了,不降息了。” 此外,我不认为今年会有真正的税务亏损抛售季,因为没人愿意为这些收益交税。

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>> I've been trying to blow a hole in my theory about what could possibly take this market down. I'm not The only thing that I can see is if the Fed says, uh, we're shook. We're not cutting. I don't know that you get a real tax loss harvesting because nobody's gonna want to pay taxes on this stuff. How about that?

主持人: 你会卖掉任何英伟达的股票吗?

Steven Fiorillo: 不会。我曾考虑过卖掉10%去投资 QXO,但我没有。因为当你看到它的图表,听到黄仁勋的讲话,看到它的远期市盈率,再看看它的技术……我们是科技投资者,你怎么能看空它呢?机器人时代甚至还没真正到来。

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>> Are you selling any Nvidia? >> No, we I considered. I loosely considered today selling 10% to move it into QXO, but I didn't. >> Why? Why didn't you? >> Because of the damn chart. That's why. And I got a little greedy. >> Well, like dude, put in the chat if anyone's selling Nvidia. I like when you hear what Jensen says and you look at their Ford multiple and you look at the technology that like we're we're we're tech investors. When you see that, you're like, "How do I fade that?" Like, "How do I actually say?" >> Robots aren't even here yet.

主持人: 那么,你认为我们正处于哪个周期阶段?

Steven Fiorillo: 我们正处在1989年。我坚信我们还没离开派对。想想接下来需要发生什么:全面的机器人革新,全面的 AI 实施。这个发展跑道会是什么样子?可口可乐、沃尔玛、好市多,这些公司都还没有在仓库中使用机器人。未来5到10年,你会看到一场我们还没准备好的巨大变革。

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>> We're in 1989. I'm not going to stop saying it. I really don't think that we've left for the party yet. >> But it's not just about capex. Think about what needs to happen now. You need a full-on robotic overhaul. You full-blown AI implementation. Think about what that runway is going to look like. Coca-Cola, Walmart, Costco, none of these companies are using robotics in their warehouses. You're going to see a gigantic overhaul going over the next 5 to 10 years that we're truly not ready for or we're not allowing our minds to agree with, but it's happening.

主持人: 这引出了一个令人担忧的问题:劳动力市场。

Steven Fiorillo: 是的,我认为我们需要 UBI(Universal Basic Income: 全民基本收入,政府向所有公民定期发放的一笔固定收入)。我讨厌这么说,但告诉我替代方案是什么。想想未来,2035年,你将不再有 Uber 司机、卡车司机。人形机器人将负责装卸货物。麦当劳、汉堡王的工作,塔吉特的理货员,你认为这些工作在10年后还会存在吗?它们一旦被取代,就再也回不来了。这是一个可怕的世界,因为工作给了人类目标。我们从未见过这样的变革,这与工业革命截然不同,因为它正在人工创造智能。

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>> Yeah. Look, I think we need UBI. I really do. I hate saying it. Tell me what the alternative is. >> 2035, you now have nobody driving Uber. You have nobody driving Lift. You have nobody driving taxis. And potentially, you have nobody driving all the trucks there doing all the deliveries. Within that eight years, now you have humanoid robotics in the vehicles, trucking mainly to take care of all the deliveries, loading and unloading. So what about all those jobs? What about McDonald's, Wendy's, Burger King? You're telling me that that's not going to be automated? What about stocking shelves at Target? So you're telling me that all these shops are still going to exist in 10 years? And there's no way they're ever coming back once they're replaced? No, absolutely not. It is a scary world to think about. Like jobs at the end of the day provide humans something to do. We've never seen anything like this before. This is dramatically different than the industrial revolution. because what this is doing is quite literally creating intelligence artificially.

主持人: 面对这种未来,我们能做的唯一的事,就是投资这些公司。

Steven Fiorillo: 是的,你必须拥有资产。标普10000点会比人们想象的更早到来。我敢说,到2030年,我们会看到10000点。

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>> Like if Amazon's going to lay off 600,000 people, you got to have some Amazon stock. >> How about this? It may be crazy to say this. S&P 10,000 is coming sooner than people think. I'm gonna say it. I'm gonna say it. >> So, you went from 7,000 to 7,200 to 10,000. >> no. 10,000 by 2030.