Jason: All right everybody, welcome back to the number one podcast in the world. It's the All-in podcast. With us today, Chimoth Polyatia, David Saxs, and our fifth bestie, Mr. Brad Gersonner is here. I think David Freeberg is suffering from some socialist related flu. He's very sick of reading about socialists, but he'll be back next week with two incredible interviews.

Brad: You guys see those Spencer Pratt ads? Wow. It's one of the best political ads I've ever seen.

Sacks: Whoever that social media team is is on fire. If you get a good social media team and a good ad production team, I think it's nextgen because these things go crazy. And Spencer Pratt, if he wins this election, which I think he's going to in Los Angeles, the reason is what Brad said. Those ads are incredible. Well, he's also quite a good debater. He's up against Karen Bass, who's the mayor, who is basically extremely leftwing. And then there's someone who's a city council woman who's even further to the left of Karen Bass. I mean, she's often like Fidel Castro territory. Pratt pointed out that this council woman is actually in charge of all these homeless programs already.

Jason: He eviscerated her. And he basically made the key point, which is, look, the problem here is not lack of housing. It's an addiction issue, and it's a mental illness issue.

Jason: All right, let's get to the dot. Elon just leased all of Colossus 1, his data center. Shocking to Dario and Anthropic. Chamath on last week's pod, you said Elon and Dario should do a deal tomorrow. It happened 5 days later. Because of Anthropic's obvious compute constraints, Anthropic just added over 220,000 Nvidia GPUs, over 300 megawatts of energy. The deal is already having an impact. Claude has now doubled the Claude code rate limits, removed peak usage caps for paid users. Elon made a great bet on compute and built up those data centers really fast and that is now paying off. Let's talk about the emergence of Elon Web Services EWS. He is now in the hyperscaler competing against Google Cloud, Amazon Web Services and Azure.

Chamath: I think the deal is fantastic. First, as I mentioned a couple weeks ago, Anthropic and OpenAI's revenue performance has nothing to do with demand. It is entirely to do with the supply constraints that exist in data centers and specifically in power. If they had infinite power, I think that their revenues would probably be even more parabolic. The thing that they really need is more compute and more power. The second thing is the opportunity for Elon. When people try to red team the SpaceX valuation, the biggest element is the on-the-c value around the orbital data centers. By actually landing a bunch of terrestrial capacity, he now has this structural core business that will effectively subsidize his ability to train Grock. He built to a level of scale and secured power before most people. It has now become the critical asset. And now he's kind of kingmaking.

Brad: Yeah. First we know that there's nobody better on planet Earth than Elon at converting electrons to tokens. I estimate that this is going to generate in this year an incremental 4 to 5 billion of revenue. And that will subsidize all that he's investing to build the next generation of Groth. Remember too that he has three facilities, Colossus, Macro hard, and Macro harder. H100's great for inference to anthropic. He's monetizing it in a big way. Now he becomes an immediate competitor in the hyperscaler. I want to dispel this myth, these are not organic local protests. This is highly organized activists. In Texas, where you're building the most data centers in the country, electricity costs are going down.

Sacks: Let's just honestly and accurately assess where the state of this AI market is at right now and Anthropic's place within it. So for the last 3 years, Anthropic has been growing at a rate of 10x a year. In April, they went from 30 to 44 billion of ARR. Nobody in Silicon Valley has ever seen anything like it. It's pretty much a foregone conclusion that they will hit that forecast of 10x this year exiting the year. Call it roughly 100 billion of ARR. And now the only question is whether they hit a trillion in 2027. They'll easily be the most valuable tech company in history.

Sacks: Unless something about their current trajectory changes anthropic will be the most powerful monopoly ever created in human history. Dario calls it AGI. I call it the biggest monopoly in human history. Imagine if John D. Rockefeller was way better at public relations, and instead of calling his company Standard Oil, he called it safe oil. He called for the creation of a new government agency to regulate the safety of his product. People would have gotten so wrapped up in this debate over safe kerosene that they would have missed what was really going on, which is that Rockefeller was building the richest, most powerful monopoly of all time. I do think that a lot of the the safetiest policies are basically calling for a form of regulatory capture.

Brad: It's ridiculous to think of this as a monopoly. We're talking about annual run rate revenues, but on a gap basis, they're doing about the same revenue as OpenAI. Google, Amazon, these companies are producing hundred billion dollars of free cash flow to justify their incremental investment. At the same time, you have these two startups that are still fledgling. The last thing I want to be doing is seeing people talk about this and throwing roadblocks into the way of the competition.

Jason: The White House allegedly, possibly is considering, according to reports, an FDA for AI that would vet new models for safety. New York Times reported Trump is considering an executive order to create an AI working group. According to the report the catalyst was Anthropic's mythos model which reportedly spooked people really nervous at the White House.

Brad: Actually, I don't think they're slightly different positions. I talked to Kevin last night, and he said I was only bringing it up to say that we want them to show us the models so that we can coordinate them. But he does not think that we're going to move to an approval regime. The approval regime is a disaster. We don't want to put the Washington in the position of picking winners and losers when it comes to these models.

Chamath: I think that there's a pretty profound vibe shift with respect to tech, tech oligarchs, and particularly the AI. That vibe shift has already happened on Main Street, and I think that that's starting to seep into Washington. We suffer from two things. Number one is we have horrible messaging. And two, the idea that there's going to be a few winners and many, many, many potential losers. I'd give the community, the tech leaders a Dminus, trending to an F.

Sacks: Look, I think there's several things going on here. The first one is there's a lot of fake news. This whole idea of an FDA for AI, I don't think any senior official supports it. There is a legitimate thing happening here with let's call it mythos or cyber. We do need there to be a hardening of systems. We should be getting these tools in the hands of our cyber security industry.

Chamath: Do you think that the models should have a KYC rapper going forward? KYC for the audience is know your customer. Before you can use mythos you have to identify yourself.

Sacks: Yeah, look, I think that before giving your API for a super powerful model, you should not give that to a company or an actor. You don't know who they are. So, yeah, some basic KYC makes sense. What they're trying to do is use that issue to try and create a permanent new infrastructure in Washington.

Jason: There's no reason why Nvidia, SpaceX, Anthropic when they go public couldn't give a portion of the IPO to every American citizen. We should really look deeply at the minimum wage and study what happened in New Zealand, Sweden when they raised it. We should opt in to trying to raise the minimum wage company by company.

Sacks: AI ranked 29 out of 39. It is certainly not top of mind for voters. What is top of mind for voters? Number one, cost of living. Number two, the economy. And we know that AI is deflationary. It was 75% of GDP growth in Q1. We're seeing a construction boom, a blue collar boom.

Chamath: To be very clear and blunt, there is literally not a cintilla of evidence that AI has helped lift the operating margins of the S&P 500. There's going to be an important fork in the road, probably two or three years from now. One path will be opex shrinks, hence margins increase. We have kind of call it 500 days where you just got to be net long. The people that are paying for all these tokens need to see an actual benefit.

Jason: We had a great show, everybody. We all learned. We workshopped some stuff. Let's leave it where it is. I want to congratulate Elon and Dario on their recent deal. We have the best competitive framework in the country. America for the win.