黑石集团的成功秘诀
Niola Tangan: 大家好,我是挪威主权财富基金(Sovereign Wealth Fund: 由政府拥有和管理的投资基金)的首席执行官Niola Tangan。今天我邀请到了Jon Gray。
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hi everybody I'm niola tangan the CEO of the Norwegian Sovereign wealth fund and today I'm here with John Gray.
Niola Tangan: Jon Gray是黑石集团(Blackstone)的联席总裁,此前曾担任房地产部门负责人。在他的领导下,黑石的房地产部门已成为全球最大的房地产投资机构,管理资产从约50亿美元增长到3000多亿美元。
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now John Gray Co Blackstone previously the head of real estate hair and Incredibly under his leadership blackstone's real estate division has become the biggest in the world you grew it from some 5 billion to more than 300 billion.
Niola Tangan: 您以在房地产领域完成了一些世界顶级的交易而闻名,例如将希尔顿酒店(Hilton Hotels)私有化后又重新上市。
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and you are known for some of the best deals in real estate the world has ever seen such as the Hilton hotel which you took off market and I'm back on the market.
Niola Tangan: 哇,干得好。
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and and uh wow well done.
Jon Gray: 很高兴能和您在一起,Niola。您今天没打领带。
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great to be here with you Nikolai and you're taking off the tie today.
Niola Tangan: 我没打领带是因为我看了您的节目,不想穿得太正式。
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I took off the tie because I watched your stuff and I didn't want to be overdressed.
Jon Gray: 太棒了。
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that's great.
Niola Tangan: 简而言之,黑石集团为何能取得成功?
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now in short why has Blackstone been successful?
Jon Gray: 我认为我们成功有几个原因,最主要的是我们从未忘记自己的使命,那就是为客户提供服务。
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I think we've been successful uh for a couple of reasons the main one is we've never forgotten what our mission is which is delivering for our customers.
Jon Gray: 这意味着要提供超额回报(Premium Returns: 高于市场平均水平或基准的投资收益)。如果您投资于私募市场(Private Markets: 交易不公开进行,资产流动性较低的市场),而不是流动性市场(Liquid Markets: 资产可以快速买卖的市场),我们就必须提供超额回报。
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and that means delivering premium returns if you invest in private markets instead of liquid markets we have to deliver a premium.
Jon Gray: 正因为我们所有业务部门都高度专注于此,虽然我们并非总能做到完美,但这种对回报的专注对我们长期的成功至关重要。
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and because we focus intensely on that across all our different business units doesn't mean we've always gotten it right but that focus on returns has been so important to our success over time.
Niola Tangan: 那么,您需要为客户赚取多少钱才能让他们满意呢?
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and how much money do you need to make for your clients for them to be happy?
Jon Gray: 这取决于风险回报策略。如果您投资于私募股权(Private Equity: 对非上市公司股权进行投资),或房地产私募股权等领域,您就需要产生显著的超额回报,因为您承担了更大的风险,资金被长期锁定。
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it depends on the risk return strategy so if you're in things like private Equity or real estate private Equity then you need to produce meaningful premiums because you're taking on larger risk the the capital's tied up for a long period of time.
Jon Gray: 您可能希望产生500个基点(Basis Points: 衡量利率或收益率变动的单位,1个基点等于0.01%)的超额回报。但如果是投资级私人信贷(Investment Grade Private Credit: 对信用评级较高的私人公司提供的贷款),可能只需要150或200个基点。
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you might have to you want to produce 500 basis points of excess return let's say but if you're talking about investment grade private credit then maybe it's 150 or 200 basis points.
Jon Gray: 但您肯定需要产生超额回报。
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but you definitely have to produce a premium.
Jon Gray: 换句话说,您不能把钱存在银行赚3%的利息,而是需要提供5%的回报。
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the other thing I'd say which means that instead of putting money in the bank at 3% you need to deliver 5%.
Niola Tangan: 是的,您需要这样做。
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yes that's what you need to do.
Jon Gray: 对于更高回报的股票,也许您需要为客户提供15%的净回报,而不是10%。
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and for higher returning equities instead of producing 10 maybe you need to produce 15 net to the customers.
Jon Gray: 另一个我们成功的因素,这要归功于Steve Schwarzman,就是我们一直致力于保持创业精神,寻找新的投资地域,为客户提供新产品,并开发新客户。
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the other thing I'd say to Our Success this is really a credit to Steve schwarzman who you know it's been the push to be entrepreneurial and find new geographies to invest new products to deliver to customers new customers.
Jon Gray: 这个地方充满了持续的活力和不安分,总想着我们能做得更多,能更好地服务客户。
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it's a constant sort of energy restlessness in this place that we can do more we can serve our customers better.
Jon Gray: 这种提供丰厚回报和活力的结合,造就了今天的黑石集团,管理着超过一万亿美元的资本,市值超过2000亿美元。
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and the combination of delivering great returns and this sort of dynamism That's What's led to this place today that has over a trillion one of capital and north of a $200 billion market cap.
Jon Gray: 我33年前加入公司时,它管理的资产还不到10亿美元,所以这是一个巨大的变化。
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I joined a firm 33 years ago that managed less than a billion dollars here so it's been a dramatic difference.
Jon Gray: 但我们从未忘记什么才是最重要的。当然,我还要补充一点,就是人才。在投资行业,拥有优秀的人才才是关键。
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but again we've never lost sight of what's mattered and I would add to that of course the people I mean if you know it in the investment business it's who you've got in the building that makes all the difference.
Niola Tangan: 您提到需要有创业精神,我想Steve说过创业精神是无法传授的。那么,您会招聘有创业精神的人吗?
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you said that you needed to be entrepreneurial I think Steph said that uh you can't teach entrepreneurialism so would you hire people who entrepreneurs then?
Jon Gray: 我认为两者兼而有之。我认为你无法真正教会那些极具创业精神的人,比如Steve,这种精神似乎是与生俱来的。
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you know I would say I think it's a little bit of both I don't think think you can really teach people who are extreme entrepreneurs somebody like Steve where it's sort of born into his DNA.
Jon Gray: 但如果你把人们带入一种文化,并鼓励他们,告诉他们:“嘿,去坐飞机,寻找新客户,思考新的投资方式,寻找新市场”,那么这种精神就会被培养出来。
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but if you bring people into a culture and you encourage this yeah and you say to them hey get on that plane find that new customer think about a new way of investing capital a new market then it sort of breeds this it's encouraged.
Jon Gray: 这就是我感觉这里弥漫的氛围:不仅渴望在我们正在做的事情上取得成功,还思考如何扩展它,而这种扩展又会为我们最初的业务带来更多益处。
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and that's what I feel like's in the water here there's a desire to not only succeed at what we're doing but thinking about how we can expand it and that as we EXP anded it brings more benefit to the original business we started with.
优秀企业的特征与投资哲学演变
Niola Tangan: 我想您说过,周期是不可避免的,但您想找到“灰色公司”并长期持有它们。那么在您看来,一个好的企业应该具备哪些特征呢?
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I think you've said that um um Cycles are inevitable uh but you want to find the gray companies and and own them for the long term so in your mind what's a good business what what are the characteristics characteristics of a good business?
Jon Gray: 它应该在一个正在增长的大市场中,而不是一个小众市场。
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um it's in a large Market that's growing as opposed to the little nichy market.
Jon Gray: 这是一个拥有某种护城河(Moat: 商业中指企业抵御竞争对手的能力,如品牌、专利、规模优势等)的企业,无论是实体护城河还是使其与众不同的品牌。因此,它通常拥有更高的利润率。
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it's a business that has some mode around it either a physical moat or something that makes it special a brand and as a result you have higher margin generally higher margin businesses.
Jon Gray: 这是一个通常资本密集度(Capital Intensity: 衡量企业投资于固定资产的程度)较低的企业。
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say something about a company it's a business generally with less Capital intensity.
Jon Gray: 有时也有资本密集度很高但很棒的企业,但我们更喜欢资本轻型(Capital Light)的企业。
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sometimes there are highly Capital intense businesses that are great but you love businesses that are capital light.
Jon Gray: 我们喜欢拥有经常性收入(Recurring Revenues: 持续稳定产生的收入,而非一次性收入)的企业,而不是每年都必须重新开始。它们不依赖于单一客户或政府政策的突然变化。
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you love businesses that have recurring revenues as opposed to having to start over every year they're not exposed to one client or the government stroke of a PR pen risk um.
Jon Gray: 而且,业务本身还有拓展到相关领域的潜力。
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and there's a potential to do things adjacent to the business.
Niola Tangan: 给我举一个例子,您见过的最好的企业是什么?
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and I so tell me give me one example what's the best buiness you've seen?
Jon Gray: 我担任希尔顿酒店(Hilton Hotels)董事长已经17年了,您一开始也提到了它。全球旅游是一个巨大的增长业务,但它并非资本密集型。
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well I've been the chairman of Hilton Hotels you brought it up at the beginning uh for 17 years and it's Global Travel is an enormous growth business but it's capital in sensive it's not the way they do it.
Jon Gray: 以前,希尔顿拥有并租赁酒店,但今天,像希尔顿这样的公司是管理公司和特许经营商。
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so the way the business used to be they used to own the hotels and lease it today what a company like Hilton is is a management company and a franchise or.
Jon Gray: 实体房地产由第三方投资者拥有,他们只按收入百分比或利润百分比收取费用。这使得他们无需大量资本就能实现增长。
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so the physical real estate is owned by Third parties investors and they just get paid as a percentage of revenues maybe a percentage of the bottom line and that allows them to grow without a lot of capital.
Jon Gray: 黑石集团也类似,当然还有品牌的强大力量,这是一种网络效应。一旦您成为希尔顿的常旅客,您就会在全球的DoubleTree、Waldorf或Hampton Inn酒店入住。
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Blackstone similarly and of course the power of the brand there's a network effect once you become a frequent traveler with Hilton you're going to stay at a Double Tree or a waldorf or a Hampton in around the world.
Jon Gray: 然后其他酒店业主也会建造酒店并希望与这个系统合作。
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and then other owners of hotels are going to build and want to affiliate with the system.
Jon Gray: 我认为黑石集团也类似,它是一个资本业务,基于品牌,并能够成长为一个快速增长的另类私人资本市场(Alternatives Private Capital Market: 指投资于股票、债券等传统资产以外的资产,如私募股权、房地产、对冲基金等)。
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and I'd say similarly with Blackstone it's a capital business it's based on brand and it's able to grow into a very fast growing Alternatives private Capital Market.
Jon Gray: 所以我喜欢那些不需要大量资本、拥有强大品牌,当然还能为客户提供服务的企业。无论是希尔顿还是黑石,这都是我们工作的核心。
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so I like businesses that don't use a lot of capital and have a really great brand and of course deliver to their customer in the case of Hilton or in the case of Blackstone that's core to what you do.
Niola Tangan: 我想,如果您在董事会任职17年,您一定在希尔顿酒店里度过了不少时间。
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I suspect if you've been on a board there for 17 years you spent a fair amount of time in Hilton Hotels.
Jon Gray: 确实如此。但功劳要归于首席执行官Chris Nasetta。
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I do that is absolutely true but the credit there goes with CEO Chris Netta.
Niola Tangan: 那么,黑石集团的投资理念随着时间是如何变化的?还是说你们寻找的都是同类事物?
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yeah now how has the investment philosophy changed over time for Blackstone or it the same kind of things you look for?
Jon Gray: 我会说,投资流程的严谨性一直保持不变。
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well I would say this the rigor of the process has stayed.
Jon Gray: 当我很久以前加入公司时,我们就有投资前委员会、备忘录和投资委员会的严格辩论,这些都保留了下来。
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so when I joined this place way back when we had you know pre-investment committees and and sometimes heads up memos and rigorous debates in the investment committee that has stayed.
Jon Gray: 随着时间的推移,它甚至变得更加完善,因为我们不再只做一两件事,而是拥有更广阔的视野。
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and that in some ways has gotten even more folsome over time and it's gotten better because we're not just doing one or two things we get this big much broader lens.
Jon Gray: 所以我会说流程保持不变。可能改变的是,最初我们可能更像是经典的价值投资者。
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so I would say the process is saved what has probably changed is at the beginning we were probably more classic value investors.
Jon Gray: 您可以投资任何东西,预测一系列现金流,然后进行估值。
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you could sort of invest in anything project out a series of cash flows and you know value this.
Jon Gray: 我认为我们已经转向了更具高信念(High Conviction: 对特定投资机会有强烈信心和深入研究)的投资方式:我们认为世界哪些领域会变得更好?哪些是好的“社区”?
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and I think where we've moved is more to being a little more High conviction what are the areas of the world that we believe are going to get better what's a good neighborhood you know phys physical goods are moving from retail the way we traditionally think about it to online so let's really lean into Global Logistics where we become the largest investor in the world.
Jon Gray: 实体商品正从我们传统认为的零售业转向线上,所以我们大力投入全球物流,并成为全球最大的投资者。
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physical goods are moving from retail the way we traditionally think about it to online so let's really lean into Global Logistics where we become the largest investor in the world.
Jon Gray: 人工智能(AI)和云迁移正在导致对数据中心(Data Centers: 集中存放计算机服务器和网络设备的设施)的巨大需求,所以我们也要投入其中,并投入支持它们的电力。
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what's happening in Ai and Cloud migration is leading to enormous demand for data centers and so let's lean in there let's lean into the power that's going to support that.
Jon Gray: 生命科学领域也是如此,我们看到基因组学、人工智能和大数据、精准医疗的发展。所以我们要拥有建筑物,拥有运营试验的公司,投资于三期药物本身。
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it's the same thing in life sciences what we're seeing there with genomics and Ai and Big Data precision medicine and so let's own the buildings let's own the companies that run trials let's run let's invest in the phase three drugs themselves.
Jon Gray: 所以我会说,基本的严谨性、对大量尽职调查(Due Diligence: 在交易或投资前对目标进行全面细致的调查)的关注依然存在。我们今天早上刚对一家我们考虑通过私募股权收购的大型上市公司进行了尽职调查。
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and so I'd say the the basic rigor the focus on doing tons of due diligence we just had one this morning on a large public company we're looking at buying in private equity.
Jon Gray: 辩论听起来非常相似,我们有更多的工具和更多能增值的人。
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and the debate sounds remarkably similar we have more tools at our disposal more people who can add value.
Jon Gray: 但我想说,我们变得更加意识到要努力在更好的地方购买更好的企业。
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but I'd say what we become more aware of is trying to buy better businesses in better places.
投资委员会的运作方式
Niola Tangan: 我很想深入了解一下投资委员会,我猜你们的做法可能与其他人有些不同。例如,您参加多少个投资委员会?
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I'd love to drill down on the investment committees which I think it's uh which I suspect you do a bit differently than other people so for instance how many investment committees do you sit on?
Jon Gray: 很多,两位数。我几乎参加了公司所有投资委员会。
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a lot like how many uh double digit number of investment committees but I'm I sit across pretty much all the firm's investment committees.
Jon Gray: 大多数人周末会做其他事情,而我则花周末时间阅读投资委员会备忘录,这就是我做的事情。
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I spend my weekends most people do other things I spend my weekends reading investment committee memos that's what I do.
Niola Tangan: 那么您大概参加了15个委员会?
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so you are let's say you are on what are you 15?
Jon Gray: 10到12个。
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15 committees 10 12 10 12 committees.
Niola Tangan: 好的,12个委员会。它们多久开一次会?
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okay 12 committees and how often do they meet?
Jon Gray: 大多数(并非全部)每周至少开一次会,或每两周一次。所以如果看我的日程表,会发现花在这些会议上的时间很多。
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most of them not all of them meet weekly at least every two weeks so it's a if you looked at my calendar there's a lot of time spent on those.
Jon Gray: 即使有时我出差无法参加,我也会阅读备忘录,如果我有非常强烈的意见或问题,我会发送我的评论。
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and even sometimes when I'm traveling I can't join I will read the memos I'll send in my comments if I have a very strong view or send my question so um.
Jon Gray: 所以,如果您问我一周内,尤其是在周末,花时间最多的事情是什么,那就是阅读这些备忘录。
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it's a if you said what do I probably spend the most time on during the week particularly the weekends is just reading these memos.
Jon Gray: 内容可以从一家日本制药公司到一家欧洲能源公司。
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and it can range from a Japanese pharmaceutical company to a European Energy company.
Niola Tangan: 这些备忘录有多长?
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how long are these memos?
Jon Gray: 我们尽量限制它们的长度,并且在缩短方面做得越来越好。我们努力将正文部分控制在三页或更少,并将整个备忘录控制在20页以内。
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we try to limit them we're getting better at trying to keep them shorter we try to keep the text up front to sort of three pages or less and then try to keep the overall memo less than 20 Pages.
Jon Gray: 可能会有很多图表。我想说,在投资委员会的流程中,我们越来越意识到,重要的不是第58页的脚注,而是开头的几段。
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it can be a lot of graphs and charts I'd say we've come to realize more and more in the investment committee process that that it's less about page 58 in the footnote and more about those first couple paragraphs.
Jon Gray: 是的,我们投资的那个“社区”,标的业务的质量,以及围绕技术去中介化(Technological Disintermediation: 技术使得中间环节被消除或减少)、劳动力成本风险、政府监管风险等主要因素。
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yeah that neighborhood we're investing in the quality of the underlying business and then what are the big factors around technological disintermediation risks on labor costs risks on government regulation.
Jon Gray: 在某些方面,这迫使人们真正关注大局。
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in some ways forcing people to really focus on the big stuff.
Niola Tangan: 是的,是的。那么您现在要参加投资会议了?
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yeah yeah so now you're are you coming to an investment meeting?
Jon Gray: 是的。
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yes.
Niola Tangan: 你们会讨论多少个投资项目?
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how many Investments are you discussing discussing?
Jon Gray: 这取决于团队。在信贷部门,数量会更高,因为交易量更大,可能讨论三四个。
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depends on the group in credit it'll be a higher volume because you're doing more volume so those you might do three or four.
Jon Gray: 对于私募股权或房地产私募股权,可能只有一个,最多两个,数量会少一些。
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for private Equity or real estate private Equity those might be one maybe two but it tends to be a smaller number um.
Jon Gray: 好消息是,在我们的投资委员会中,通常有负责交易的合伙人,他们是该团队的高级合伙人,然后还有我们少数几个人。
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and and the good news is remember in our investment committee there are the partners generally who are working on the transaction they're the senior Partners in that group and then a handful of us.
Jon Gray: 坐在这里的人并不总是相同的。我们有首席投资官(CIO: Chief Investment Officer, 负责管理投资组合和投资策略)职能,还有一些业务部门内部的首席投资官。所以我们力求兼顾各方。
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and it's not always the same people who are sitting across these we have a coci function we have some cios within business units so we're trying to get the best of all worlds.
Niola Tangan: 房间里会有多少人?
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so how many people would you be in the room?
Jon Gray: 这取决于团队,可能从10到25人不等。我们经常希望交易团队发言。
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oh it depends on the group it could range from 10 to 25 people often times we want the deal teams to speak up.
Jon Gray: 在许多委员会中,我们会让房间里最年轻的人发言:“嘿,你觉得怎么样?”因为我们希望他们能清楚地表达自己的信念。
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we we'll go around in many of these committees and ask the most Junior people in the room hey what do you think because we want them to articulate why they have conviction.
Niola Tangan: 那么,我现在25岁,刚从商学院毕业,很幸运被您聘用。我正在向您,大名鼎鼎的Jon Gray,展示我的投资案例,所以我非常紧张,对吧?这很可怕。我已经工作了三个月。我做了电子表格吗?
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so now I'm I'm 25 right spright out of business school you know very lucky being hired by you and I'm presenting my investment case to you know the Big John Gray so I'm pretty nervous right it's scary scary I've been working for three months gee have I done spreadsheets yeah.
Niola Tangan: 那么我来到这里,我是否应该开始会议并告诉您为什么应该购买?它是如何运作的?
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and so I come here and then do I start the meeting and tell you why you should buite well does it work?
Jon Gray: 是的,它会这样运作:我们不是最有耐心的一群人。所以通常情况下,也许年轻人会开始发言。
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yeah the way it would work is we're not the most patient group of people so often times maybe the young person will start.
Jon Gray: 也许最年轻的人不会是发言者,可能是30岁出头的主管。但年轻人会坐在他旁边。
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it's probably the the youngest person may not be the one talking it may the principal somebody let's say early 30s but the young people will be sitting there next to him.
Jon Gray: 通常他们会开始发言,但通常的运作方式是备忘录已经发出,然后会有一系列问题,人们会深入探讨。
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and often they'll start talking but the way it tends to work is the memo will have come out and there'll be a series of questions people are really Drilling in on.
Jon Gray: 比如:“这家公司总体看起来不错,但它受益于一次收购,我们看到资本支出(Capex: Capital Expenditure, 资本性支出,用于购买、改善或延长固定资产寿命的支出)和营运资本都在增加。”
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you know this company it looks good overall but it's you know it's been helped by an acquisition and what we're seeing is the capital intensity the working capital and the capex are going up.
Jon Gray: 所以会有大量的问题。因为人们已经阅读了材料,他们通常会直接切入问题的核心。
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and so there've been a flurry of questions and so often times because people will have read the materials they'll immediately go to the heart of the issue.
Jon Gray: 所以我们希望人们,我们努力确保大家多说“请”和“谢谢”,并对团队表示感谢。但这是一个真正的“求真”过程。
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so hopefully people and what we we try to do is make sure a lot of please and thank yous and be appreciative to the group but there's a really sort of a truth-telling exercise.
Jon Gray: 我们还会让团队对我们投资的每个项目进行业务质量记分卡(Scorecards: 一种评估工具,用于衡量和跟踪绩效),有时我们可能会反驳说:“你给这个打了绿色,但它看起来更像是黄色或红色。”
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we also have you know we have the teams do business quality scorecards on each of the things we're investing in and sometimes we may push back and say you gave that a green that really feels like a yellow or red.
Niola Tangan: 记分卡就像一个核对清单?就像飞行员起飞飞机时,必须记住打开燃油之类的东西?
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but scorecard is like a tick list so as if you were a pilot and take off a plane and you have to remember to turn on the fuel and that kind of stuff?
Jon Gray: 我会说,它更多地关注利润率、资本密集度、管理质量以及弱点。
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I'd say it's a little more of the margin the capital intensity the quality of management um what are the weak weaknesses.
Jon Gray: 投资委员会的工作通常是找出“哪里不对劲”或“我们应该担心什么?”结构是否错误?一致性是否错误?业务本身是否有问题?
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and the investment committee's job is generally to find you know what is not right about this or what should we be concerned about is the structure wrong is the alignment wrong is there something wrong with the business.
Jon Gray: 或者你也可以进来,说:“嘿,我觉得我们太保守了。这将是一场更激烈的竞拍,我们是否投入足够了?”
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or you could come in and say hey I think we're being too conservative this is going to be a more competitive auction are we leaning in enough?
Jon Gray: 我喜欢我们公司的一点是,在人们发现机会和行业领域的创业精神与投资流程的控制机制之间,存在着非常健康的平衡。
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and what I love about our firm is there's a really healthy balance between sort of the entrepreneurial Spirit of the people identifying opportunities and sectors and the control mechanism of the investment process.
Niola Tangan: 那么,你们提出的案例中,有多少百分比最终获得了积极的决策?
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so what percent of the cases you bring up actually go through to positive decision?
Jon Gray: 我认为这是一个演变过程,而不是每隔几个月就出现一笔交易,然后你决定是否通过。
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the way I think about it is it's an evolution as opposed to you know once every couple months a deal comes up and then you're like this.
Jon Gray: 通常在业务部门内部,这些业务的负责人或收购负责人会很早接触到这些项目,他们会筛选掉很多东西,并可能进行修改。
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typically within the business unit the people who are the leaders of those businesses will get these early on or the heads of Acquisitions they'll do screening and they'll kick out a bunch of stuff and they may make modifications.
Jon Gray: 他们可能会说:“看,我们不会在这种结构下做这个,或者我们必须拥有100%的股权,或者我们不能收购这个部门。”
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and say look we're not willing to do this under this structure or we have you know we have to Own 100% or we can't buy this division.
Jon Gray: 它可能会提交给一个投资前委员会,再次由更多的人和团队中的其他高级投资者参与。
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it may go to a pre-investment committee again with more people than in the group other senior investors in the group.
Jon Gray: 通常我看到这些项目时,已经接近流程的尾声了。所以通过的百分比会更高,因为你已经经历了这个质量控制过程。
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and generally when I'm seeing this is more towards the end of the process so there the percentage is higher because you've already it's like you're going through this Quality Control process.
Niola Tangan: 那么,您会说通过率是50/50,还是更高?
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so when you're would you say 50/50 or more than would go through?
Jon Gray: 我会说,当它到达我这里时,通过率会更高。但请记住,仍然可能会出现“嘿,这不适合我们,因为非经济原因”的情况。
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well I would say when it's getting to me it's a higher percentage but remember it can still be hey this doesn't work for us for non-economic reason.
Jon Gray: 我担心的是法律或媒体影响。我认为我们在这方面做得很好,但有时会有这些因素,也许还有定价问题。
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I'm concerned about the um you know legal or or press ramifications is this I think we do a good job of this but sometimes there are those maybe pricing.
Niola Tangan: 您必须举手同意才能通过吗?
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do you have to have a thumbs up for it to pass?
Jon Gray: 我们尽量以协商一致的方式进行。
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we try to do it in a consensus way.
Niola Tangan: 但如果你们不喜欢,它就不会通过,对吗?
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I mean I know but if you don't like it then it does not.
Jon Gray: 我很少那样做,因为我认为你需要有这种集体意识。
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I I I I try to do that rarely because I I think you want to have this group sense.
Jon Gray: 偶尔可能会有一些我个人觉得不合适的东西。我试图做的是发出我喜欢或不喜欢的信号,因为通常在一个基金或策略中,一笔交易并不能决定未来。
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every once in a while there may be something that I'm just like hey from my standpoint what I'm trying to do is signal things that I like like don't like because generally within a fund or strategy that one deal is not going to be determinative of the future.
Jon Gray: 但如果它是我不喜欢的业务类型,我就会发出信号:“嘿,让我们尝试做一些其他的事情。”
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but if it's a type of business that I don't love then I'm signaling hey let's try to do some other stuff.
Jon Gray: 但再说一次,如果这个团队已经夜以继日地工作了几个月,因为他们在这里工作非常努力,非常努力。
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but again if you had this team uh who've been working for months day and night because here they work around the clock right this poor they work very hard very hard.
Jon Gray: 他们在这上面投入了大量时间,然后你进来,只是觉得它行不通,这会让你感觉不好吗?
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so they've been spending uh you know a lot of time on this and then you come in and you just don't think it works does it make you feel bad bad or good or badly?
Jon Gray: 我会说,这个过程是更具迭代性的。如果这是一笔常规交易,在一个我们高度信任的领域,我们在这个地区或这个特定的软件领域做了很多工作,并且取得了巨大的成功,那么它通过的可能性就很大。
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I mean I what I'd say is again the process is more iterative if it's a regular way deal in a sector we have high conviction we've done a lot in this geography you know or we've done a lot in this particular area of software we've had a ton of great success in it you know the odds are it's going through.
Jon Gray: 如果我们在进行竞拍,我们正在讨论价格等等。
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and if we're in an auction we're debating price that sort of thing.
Jon Gray: 我认为团队真正做得好的是,当他们发现一些不寻常的东西,并且意识到它具有某种特点,让我或其他高级投资人员会说“嗯”时,他们通常会更早地进行预筛选。
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yeah what the teams have I think really do well is when you find something that's off the run and you realize it's got a feature to it that me or other senior investment folks are going to say uh then they'll pre-screen that earlier oftentimes.
Jon Gray: 所以这不像你站在椅子上,然后说“这个”或“那个”。这是一个更具迭代性的过程。
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so it's not nearly as much like you're up on some chair and you go up and you go this or that it's a much more iterative process.
Jon Gray: 再说一次,如果你在一个业务部门内部,交易团队和业务部门的高级合伙人都支持,我的看法是,除非我有一个非常强烈的理由,否则我不认为我应该说“不”。
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and again if you're within a business unit and the deal team's supportive and the senior Partners in the business are supportive my view is unless I've got a really strong reason I don't think I should be saying you you know no.
Jon Gray: 我可以强调一些事情。我认为这是一个共识驱动的过程。
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I can be highlighting things I view this as a consensus driven process.
Jon Gray: 另一个好处是,在许多交易中,我们有多个投资委员会。就像我今天早上提到的,我们有一个,我们收到了大量问题。
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and if the other nice thing is in a number of these deals we have multiple investment committees so we just did as I mentioned one this morning and we had a ton of questions.
Jon Gray: 所以我们告诉他们:“回去,在这四个领域深入挖掘,然后回来找我们,我们会再开一次会。”
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so we just said to them like go back these four areas you really got to dig in on this and come back to us and we'll have another meeting.
Niola Tangan: 但共识交易真的是最好的吗?我的意思是,假设现在Mark Zuckerberg从他的哈佛宿舍里出来,对你说:“嘿,Jon,你想投资这家公司吗?我正在连接一些人。”你点击了,你喜欢它。你真的认为你会说“是”吗?我敢打赌你会说“不”。
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but um consensus deals are they really the best I mean do you really let's say now Mark zuberg had come here you know yeah from his Harvard dorm room and hey John uh do you want to invest in this company I'm connecting some people here and there and you click and you like it do you really think you would have said yes I bet you would have said no.
Jon Gray: 是的,最好的交易很难达成共识。
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yeah well it's it's it's difficult to get consensus for the best deals.
Jon Gray: 我会说,在我们的业务中,这在早期风险投资中尤其困难,因为它更多是一种直觉。
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what I would say is in our business that's particularly hard in early stage VC because it is much more of a gut thing.
Jon Gray: 我们所做的大部分工作都有现金流、有历史数据。我们对大多数行业的发展都有自己的看法。
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so much of what we do there are cash flows there are histories we do have views about what's happening in many most sectors.
Jon Gray: 我发现,当我说共识时,交易的驱动者是有一个真正相信它并成为其拥护者的人。
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I found that the deals when I say consensus the driver of the deal is not there's somebody who's the champion who really believes in that yeah.
Jon Gray: 他们的工作就是说服那些持怀疑态度的人,我们也有人做到了。
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and it's their job to convince the people who are skeptical and we've had people do that.
Jon Gray: 比如,我们是如何成为数据中心最大投资者的?三年前,我们有一些人倡导了一笔大型数据中心交易,结果证明这是一个明智的决定。他们能够为此提出充分的理由。
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I mean the how did we become the biggest investor in data centers we had some people who championed a large data center transaction three and a half years ago and it turned out to be a brilliant decision to do that and they were able to make the case for this.
Jon Gray: 所以,我认为我们公司在评估风险方面做得很好。我们并非总是正确,而且在早期阶段进行投资会更困难。
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so um I think we as a as a firm do a good job evaluating risk we don't always get it right and it is harder when you're going earlier stages.
Jon Gray: 但在我看来,大多数时候我们都做对了。我们努力避免犯下真正的大错误,避免结构性缺陷,或者避免投资那些不符合我们质量标准的企业。
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but it feels to me like most of the time we're we're getting it right and what we're trying to do is avoid really big mistakes something that's structurally flawed or if we think a business just doesn't meet sort of that quality standard.
决策风格与数据连接
Niola Tangan: 您是哪种类型的决策者?是模式识别/直觉型,还是分析型?或者您如何在两者之间切换?
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what what kind of decision maker are you are you a pattern recognition SL gutfield kind of guy or analytical or how do you shift between the?
Jon Gray: 我认为你必须两者兼备,对吧?因为数据会告诉你一些东西。
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I think you've got to be both right because the data tells you something right.
Jon Gray: 我的意思是,你当然可以看一家企业,然后说:“在过去20年里,这家企业的收入每年增长4%。”这会告诉你一些信息,听起来更像是一个长期基础设施资产。
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I mean certainly you can look at a business um you could say you know over the last 20 years every year the the revenue of this business has grown 4% that tells you something sounds more like a long-term infrastructure asset.
Jon Gray: 你需要深入了解,阅读备忘录并查看数据。
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um and you want to look at what's happening under under the hood you want to read the memo and look at the numbers.
Jon Gray: 另一方面,过去并不能预示未来。过去不会告诉你数据中心需求会在两年半内增长20倍。
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on the other hand the past doesn't tell you the future the past wouldn't tell you that data center demand would go up 20 fold in two and a half years.
Jon Gray: 过去也不会告诉你,美国过去20年持平的电力使用量,未来会因为电气化而突然每年增长4%。
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the past wouldn't tell you that power usage which in the United States has been flat for 20 years is all of a sudden going to go up by 4% a year going forward because of the electrification.
Jon Gray: 所以我认为你需要有量化的一面,但也需要有直觉的一面,告诉你:“看,这感觉真的很好。”
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so I think you need to have both a quantitative side to you but then an instinctual side that says look this really feels good.
Jon Gray: 顺便说一句,另一个很难用纸面表达的领域是管理团队的能力。
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and by the way the other area where it's really hard to put on a piece of paper is management teams abely.
Jon Gray: 因为如果你看很多行业,有五家公司,其中一家发展到巨大规模,三家原地踏步,一家倒闭了,但它们都拥有完全相同的条件。
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because if you look in so many Industries right there are five players in the industry and one has grown to enormous size three have treaded water one went out of business and they all had the exact same conditions.
Jon Gray: 我们在另类投资业务中也看到了同样的情况。所以这本质上是直觉。
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we've seen the same in the Alternatives business so that is by definition instinctual.
Jon Gray: 所以你必须真正努力去理解,我们是否有合适的“马”,或者这是一个很棒的企业,你需要“换马”,而且潜力比你预期的要大得多。
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and so you've got to really try to understand do we have the right horse or it's a great business and you need to change horses and the potential is a lot greater than you expect.
Niola Tangan: 我实际上为了信息披露(Disclosure: 公开透明地提供信息)的目的,做了一个关于决策的硕士论文,采访了欧洲20位最优秀的投资者,看看他们怎么说。
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I actually uh uh for the sake of f disclosure here I did a master um thesis on decision-making and interviewed the 20 best investors in Europe to see what did they say.
Niola Tangan: 结果是,最优秀的投资者会在分析和直觉之间切换。没有人愿意承认这是直觉,但当你称之为模式识别(Pattern Recognition: 通过识别数据中的规律和趋势来做出决策)时,他们都觉得好多了。
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well uh so the best ones move between analysis and gutfield now nobody wants to admit when it's called gutfield but when you call it pattern recognition they all think is much better.
Niola Tangan: 你需要有相当资深的经验才能使用它,因为你需要处于一个能够真正信任自己直觉的位置,而不需要大量的分析来支撑。
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uh you you need to be pretty senior to use it because uh you need to be in a position where you actually can trust your gutfield where you don't have to back it up with a Lo of analysis.
Niola Tangan: 当然,没有人会相信别人的直觉。但这是一个引人入胜的事情。
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and of course nobody else nobody trusts anybody else's gutfield but it's it's it's a fascinating thing.
Jon Gray: 我确实认为,如果你把投资归结为本质,它就是模式识别,就是连接点。
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I I do think if you think of investing boil it down it is pattern recognition it's connecting dots.
Jon Gray: 所以我们的竞争优势在于拥有230家公司、13000处房地产。我们正在获取所有这些数据。
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so our competitive Advantage is 230 companies 13,000 pieces of real estate and so we're getting all this data.
Jon Gray: 如果你能以某种方式连接这些数据,然后将其转化为投资,那么你在使用直觉方面就有了优势。
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so if you can connect that data in a way and then transmit that into investment then you have an advantage in using your gut.
Niola Tangan: 让我们谈谈如何连接所有这些点。你们拥有所有这些公司,所有这些房产。你们是否有系统的方法来组织从这些地方获得的信息和信号?
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let's move on to that how do you connect all these dots right you you own all these companies you own all these properties do you have a systematic way of organizing the signals and the information you get from this?
Jon Gray: 我很想说我们有某种超级计算机能给我们所有答案,但我们没有。
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I'd love to say we have some Whopper supercomputer that gives us all the answers um we don't.
Jon Gray: 但我想说我们做得越来越好。我们现在正在努力从许多企业中提取关键绩效指标(KPIs: Key Performance Indicators, 衡量业务表现的核心指标),特别是那些规模较大的、基础设施、一些房地产投资组合公司以及我们最大的私募股权业务。
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but I'd say we're getting better and better so what we're doing now is trying to pull the kpis the key performance indicators from lots of businesses particularly the larger sized ones the infrastructure some of the real estate portfolio companies some of our biggest private Equity businesses.
Jon Gray: 这些数据能告诉你工资、通货膨胀方面的情况。然后你尝试尽可能广泛地分享这些信息,当然要遵守一些限制,有些信息必须匿名,等等,通过信息隔离墙(Chinese Walls: 金融机构内部为防止敏感信息泄露而设置的物理或制度障碍)。
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that give you data about what's happening in wages what's happening in inflation and then you try to share that um as broadly as you can subject to limitations some things have to be anonymous and so forth across Chinese walls.
Jon Gray: 定期收集这些数据并分享。我们每季度对我们的公司进行调查,我们会问首席执行官们,他们在趋势、成本、收入方面看到了什么?他们认为第三季度会发生经济衰退吗?
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so capture that data on a regular basis and share it we do surveys on a quarterly BAS basis of our companies where we'll ask do the CEOs what are they seeing in terms of Trends costs revenues do they think a recessions coming in the third quarter?
Jon Gray: 我们问:“你看到经济衰退了吗?”只有16%的美国首席执行官看到了。他们现在看到了什么?他们看到了一个相当不错的经济。
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we asked you know do you see a recession only 16% of us CEOs see that what do they see now they see a pretty good economy.
Jon Gray: 我会说,我们的欧洲首席执行官们看到了一个更艰难的环境,但我们的美国首席执行官们(甚至在选举前)看到了一个相当不错的环境。
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I would say now our European CEOs see a much tougher environment but our us cosos this is even pre-election saw pretty good environment.
Jon Gray: 他们普遍认为通胀正在下降。所以对他们中的大多数人来说,他们感觉相当不错。
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they generally see inflation coming down and so for most of them they feel pretty good.
Jon Gray: 消费者方面确实存在一些弱点,其中一部分是由于疫情繁荣和大量定价,现在正在逆转。
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there is weakness on the consumer side a little bit some of that was there was some covid boomed and a lot of price and some of that's reversing.
Jon Gray: 但我想说,他们中的大多数人看到了一个相当不错的商业环境和下降的通胀,这对他们的利润率有所帮助。
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but I'd say most of them see a decent pretty decent business environment and declining inflation which has been helpful for their margins.
规模优势与风险
Niola Tangan: 拥有如此大的规模有什么优势吗?
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are there any advantages of being as big as you are?
Jon Gray: 我会说,规模一直是我们的招牌。首先,我们拥有所有这些信息,这使我们能够以差异化的方式看待事物。
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I'd say the I mean look scale has been our calling card so one it's I've got all this information and allows us to see things in a differentiated way.
Jon Gray: 我们当然在我们的租赁住房投资组合或美国最大的港口业务中看到了通胀。所以信息肯定是一个优势。
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we certainly saw inflation across our rental housing portfolio or the biggest ports business in the United States so definitely the information.
Jon Gray: 它使我们能够在公司和我们投资的公司都拥有资源。所以我们可以拥有50多名数据科学家,我们可以拥有人才管理方面的人员。
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it allows us to have resources both at the firm and at our companies so we can have 50 plus data scientists we can have people on talent management.
Jon Gray: 我们在采购方面拥有巨大的规模优势,我们可以将这些优势带给我们收购的公司。
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we have enormous scale on purchasing and we can bring those to bear at the companies we buy.
Niola Tangan: 但是你们不需要一万亿美元来负担这些吧?
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yeah but you don't need you don't need a trillion dollars to afford that.
Jon Gray: 不,但这绝对有帮助。
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no but definitely helps.
Niola Tangan: 那么,产生回报会更困难吗?
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but is is it is it more difficult to generate returns?
Jon Gray: 我不这么认为,因为在私募市场中,规模是一个优势。
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I don't believe so because in private markets it's an advantage.
Jon Gray: 另一点,我想说的是,如果你考虑流动性市场,你非常了解它。如果你想购买价值100万美元的股票,而我想购买价值10亿美元的股票,你就有优势,因为我会影响股价。
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the other thing and what I'd say on that is if you think about a liquid Market something you know a lot about if you want to buy a million dollars a stock and I want to buy a billion you've got the advantage because I'm going to move the stock price.
Jon Gray: 在私募市场中,情况恰恰相反。所以当亚洲最大的数据中心公司AirTrunk在今年夏天以160亿美元的价格出售时,我们能够自己开出支票,这就是一个竞争优势。
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yeah it's the exact opposite in private markets so when air trunk the biggest data center company in Asia was up for sale that we bought this summer for $16 billion that because we could write the check ourselves was a competitive Advantage.
Jon Gray: 当我们开出30亿美元的贷款支票,并且能够自己完成时,这也是一个竞争优势。
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when we're writing a check for a three billion doll loan and we can do that by ourselves that's a competitive Advantage.
Jon Gray: 在所有不同的活动中,包括二级市场也是如此。所以对我们来说,能够进行大型交易是一个竞争优势。
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same thing in secondaries all our different activities so for us being able to do big transactions is a competitive Advantage.
Jon Gray: 拥有所有信息和所有资源也是一个竞争优势。
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having all the information all the resources a competitive advantage.
Jon Gray: 另外,我想说的是,我们越来越成为一个全方位服务的资本解决方案提供商。
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and then the other thing I'd say is we become increasingly sort of a fullservice capital solution provider.
Jon Gray: 所以如果你来找我们说:“我想要高级投资级债务”,我们可以从我们的保险公司提供。我们可以做夹层融资(Mez),我们可以做优先股(Preferred Equity),我们可以做少数股权(Minority Stakes),我们可以做控股,涵盖所有范围。
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so if you come to us and say I want senior investment grade debt we can give you that from our insurance companies I we can do Mez we can do preferred Equity we can do minority Stakes we can do control the whole range of things.
Jon Gray: 这使我们能够与企业和其他另类投资公司进行更深入的讨论。所以我们发现规模是一个优势。
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and so it allows us to have much more robust discussions with corporates and other alternative firms so we're finding scale as an advantage.
Jon Gray: 风险在于你会失去创业精神。你最终会得到一个非常官僚的投资流程,人们停止创新。我们绝不能让这种情况发生。
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the risk is that you lose the entrepreneurial Spirit yeah that what you end up with is a very bureaucratic investment process people who stop innovating and we just can't allow that to happen.
Jon Gray: 我们必须确保这里的人们每天都充满活力和动力,并且我们通过真正的精英管理制度(Meritocracy: 凭能力而非背景决定晋升和奖励的制度)来奖励他们,奖励他们发现新机会、承担风险、创造丰厚回报。
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we've got to make sure people wake up here every day with a ton of energy ton of dynamism and that we're rewarding them in a real meritocracy for finding new opportunities for taking risk for generating great returns.
Jon Gray: 但如果你能驾驭规模并保持这种活力,对我来说,那就是我们的“秘制酱料”。
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but if you can harness the scale and keep that dry to me that's a special sauce.
数据中心与房地产投资
Niola Tangan: 您多次提到了数据中心,它一直是你们的主题之一,对吗?
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you have mentioned data centers a couple of times and um it's been one of your themes right?
Jon Gray: 是的。
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yes.
Niola Tangan: 数据中心是大型超大规模云服务商(Hyperscalers: 指提供大规模云计算服务的公司,如亚马逊AWS、微软Azure、谷歌云等)存放所有计算机的地方,简单来说。现在需求巨大,但供应也大量涌入。您担心其前景吗?
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and data centers is where the big uh hyperscalers uh you know have all their computers to put it simply now uh massive demand but also massive Supply coming on are you worried about the outlook for that?
Jon Gray: 近期我不担心。原因之一是需求巨大,对吧?计算能力,将那些英伟达GPU(Nvidia GPUs: 英伟达公司生产的图形处理器,广泛用于人工智能和高性能计算)整合在一起,云迁移,以及现在的人工智能,需求简直是巨大的。
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I'm not in the near term the the reason why one is obviously the demand is enormous right the the compute power putting those Nvidia gpus together um what's happening Cloud migration and now ai it's just enormous.
Jon Gray: 当你阅读财报电话会议摘要,听那些最大的科技公司发言时,他们都全力投入,并且看到了潜力。所以我看到了需求。
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and when you read the earnings called and I read a summary and you listen to the biggest tech companies they are all in and they see the potential so demand I see.
Jon Gray: 但Niola,您的观点完全正确,我们曾在19世纪的铁路建设中看到过,也曾在蜂窝网络建设中看到过,人们倾向于过度建设。
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but your point Nikolai which is totally right is we saw it with railroads back in the 19th century we saw it with the build out of cell what tends to happen is people overbuild.
Jon Gray: 是的,在某个阶段,这肯定会发生。
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yeah and at some stage for sure it will happen here.
Niola Tangan: 是的。您认为这会在什么时候发生?
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yes the difference when when do you think it will happen?
Jon Gray: 有两个限制因素,使得这种情况不太容易出现您预期的泡沫风险。
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there are two limiting factors which have made this much less prone to the bubble risk that you would expect.
Jon Gray: 一个是,你不会出去建造一个20亿美元的投机性数据中心(Speculative Data Center: 指在没有长期租约或客户承诺的情况下建造的数据中心)。没有人能让这种经济模式奏效。
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one is you do not go out and build a$2 billion speculative data center nobody can make those Economics work.
Jon Gray: 所以你实际上需要一份长期租约才能这样做,这限制了投机。
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so you actually need a long-term lease in place to do this so that's limiting.
Jon Gray: 第二个原因是,因为你需要电力,而全球的电力供应日益紧张,与租户的谈判比你预期的要平衡得多。
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the second thing is because you need power and power around the world is increasingly insured Supply yeah the negotiation with the tenant is much more balanced than you'd expect.
Jon Gray: 所以,如果你有一个经过批准的场地,你有建造的专业知识,并且能够获得电力,你就可以与当今世界上最大、增长最快的公司签订长期租约。
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so if you've got a site that is approved you have the knowhow how to build and you have access to power you can sign a long-term lease with the biggest and and you know fastest growing companies in the world today.
Jon Gray: 所以这保护了它。但正如您所说,我们必须不断问自己:“这是一个好‘社区’吗?它是否被过度投资了?”
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so that has protected it but to your point we have to constantly ask ourselves this is a good neighborhood is it getting you know over invested in?
Jon Gray: 因为好的“社区”是有价值的,但如果你支付过高的价格,或者在一个好“社区”里购买了一个糟糕的企业,你仍然可能会亏钱。
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because my great neighborhoods are valuable but if you pay way too high a price or you buy a bad business in a good neighborhood you could still lose money.
Jon Gray: 今天,我会说,如果你有一个规模玩家,我们在美国拥有最大的,在亚洲拥有最大的,在欧洲拥有最大的电力土地储备,并且你拥有专业知识和主要科技公司的信任,而且你已经安排好了电力供应,我认为你处于一个非常有趣的位置。
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today I would say if you have a scale player and we have the biggest in the US the biggest in Asia with the biggest powered Land Bank in Europe and you have the knowhow and the confidence of the major tech companies and you've gone out there and arranged to get power I think you're in a pretty interesting spot.
Jon Gray: 所以我们仍在积极投入,但我们也在以多种衍生方式进行:发电、输电、各种备用电源。我们正在帮助像Corweave这样的公司,我们正在进行融资,我们正在为其他公司的数据中心提供融资。
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so we're still leaning in but we're also playing it on a bunch of derivative ways power generation power transmission all sorts of backup power we're helping companies like cor weave we're doing financings we're financing other people's data centers.
Jon Gray: 这就是“好社区,淹没区”理论。我们觉得这还有很长的路要走。
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it's this good neighborhood flood the Zone Theory we feel like this has a long way to run.
Niola Tangan: 你们已经有一段时间避开写字楼和购物中心了。您认为现在是时候重新进入了吗?
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you've avoided Office Buildings and shopping centers for a little while now do you think it's time to go back in?
Jon Gray: 我认为这很有趣。我们昨天宣布了一笔小型购物中心交易,以我们的标准来看很小。
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I think it is interesting um we announced uh yesterday a small shopping center deal small by our stand standards.
Jon Gray: 它是以超市为主力店(Grocery-anchored: 指购物中心或零售地产以大型超市作为主要吸引顾客的租户)的,不是大型区域购物中心,而是便利零售。
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grocery anchored not big Regional malls but think convenience retail.
Jon Gray: 因为我们认为它代表了良好的价值,而且现在没有人建造购物中心。对我们来说,这意味着即使电子商务发展,新供应的缺乏也带来了机会。
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because we thought it represented good value and no one's building shopping centers these days and that to us means the lack of new Supply even as e-commerce happens I think there's an opportunity.
Jon Gray: 我们喜欢以超市为主力店的购物中心,它们更难转向线上,资本支出(Capex: Capital Expenditure, 资本性支出,用于购买、改善或延长固定资产寿命的支出)也更少。
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we like grocery anchored harder to move online less capex.
Jon Gray: 然后关于写字楼,我想说,你需要专注于最优质的写字楼。
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and then on Office Buildings I would say um you want to focus on the best quality Office Buildings.
Jon Gray: 它们的价值已经大幅下跌。我们很久以前就基本退出了写字楼市场,因为我们担心资本密集度。
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I mean the values have fallen very very significantly we left Office Buildings for the most part a while ago because we were worried about the capital intensity.
Jon Gray: 我们不知道疫情会到来,人们会停止来办公室。但你需要拥有最优质的建筑。
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we didn't know covid was coming people were going to stop coming to the office but you need to own the very best quality buildings.
Jon Gray: 我会说,以大幅折扣购买这些建筑是很有趣的,但我们会选择性地这样做。
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and I would say buying those buildings at a significant discount is interesting but we'll do that selectively.
私募股权与私人信贷的演变
Niola Tangan: 你们也从事私募股权,并且将其发展成一个非常大的业务。在我们这个世界的一些人对私募股权有些怀疑。
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you're also in private equity and you built this up to be a very very big business some people in my part of the world are a bit skeptic skeptical when it comes to private Equity what what are they right are they wrong what?
Jon Gray: 那么,他们是对还是错?
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what what are they right are they wrong what?
Jon Gray: 嗯,显然作为最大的私募股权投资者,我们不认为他们是对的。
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well obviously as the biggest private Equity investor we don't think they're right.
Jon Gray: 我想说,让我们从另一个角度开始:对私募股权持怀疑态度的原因是什么?
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I I'd say I think let's let's start the other way what are the what are the reasons to be skeptical to private Equity?
Jon Gray: 怀疑的原因在于这个业务是如何开始的,对吧?如果你回到80年代,当时使用了大量的杠杆(Leverage: 借入资金进行投资,以放大潜在回报,也放大风险)。
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the reasons to be skeptical or why the business or how the business started right if you went back in time it was in the 80s there was a lot of Leverage used.
Jon Gray: 你经常购买大型上市公司的部门,它们是工业公司。所以杠杆,他们借了大量的贷款。
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you were often buying divisions of bigger public companies they were were industrial companies so leverage I they took on a lot of loans.
Jon Gray: 回报通常来自于削减成本,解雇工人。你并没有太多地提升业务,也没有多少运营专长(Operational Expertise: 在日常业务管理和执行方面的专业知识)。它主要是金融套利(Financial Arbitrage: 利用市场定价差异获取无风险利润)。
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lot of loans for money in the bank they were the the return often came from taking out maybe some cost firing workers you weren't enhancing the business that much you didn't have much operational expertise it was mostly Financial Arbitrage.
Jon Gray: 如果你快进到今天的业务,它已经非常不同了。
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if you flash ahead to what the business is today it's very different.
Jon Gray: 看看我们今年做的两笔最大交易:SmartSheet,一个工作流软件业务;或者Tropical Smoothie,一个快餐特许经营业务。
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and you look at the two biggest deals we did this year uh smart sheet which is a workl flow uh software business or um we did a large business Tropical Smoothie in the fast food franchising business.
Jon Gray: 这些都是快速增长的企业。我们使用的杠杆只是过去的一小部分。
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these are fast growing businesses the amount of Leverage we use is a fraction of what was done in the past.
Jon Gray: 回报将通过增强增长、引入我们的资源来帮助这些公司更快增长来实现。这就是你如何产生超额回报的方式。
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the returns are going to come by enhancing growth bringing in our resources to help these companies grow faster and that's how you're going to generate excess returns.
Niola Tangan: 那么你们会招聘人员吗?
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so you hire so these companies will hire people?
Jon Gray: 是的,他们会招聘人员。你会给他们更多资源来增长,你可能会将他们扩展到国际市场。
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well they will hire people you'll give them more resources to grow you might expand them internationally.
Niola Tangan: 你们会提供什么样的专业知识帮助他们?
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and what kind of expertise do you help them with how you?
Jon Gray: 通常可能是他们的市场进入策略,可能是他们如何组织销售,可能是他们的质量控制,可能是他们的营销。
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often times it could be things like their go to market strategy it could be how they organize themselves to to sell it could be their quality control it could be their marketing.
Jon Gray: 你正在将所有这些规模工具带给公司。所以我想我们业务的起点是一个金融活动,它已经变成了一个更注重运营增长的业务。
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you're bringing all these tools to Bear of scale to the company and so what I think we're the business started which was a financial exercise and it's become a much more operational growth oriented business.
Jon Gray: 如果你看看我之前提到的希尔顿,我们收购它时和今天的样子简直是天壤之别。
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and and if you look I mentioned Hilton before what Hilton was when we bought it versus what it is today is night and day.
Jon Gray: 它不仅为员工和投资者做得很好,而且它可能也是可持续发展(Sustainability: 满足当代需求而不损害后代满足其需求的能力)和多元化(Diversity: 组织中包含不同背景、经验和特征的人员)方面的领先公司。他们作为一家企业做得非常出色。
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and it's not just it's done a great job for its employees for its investors but it's also probably the leading company on sustainability on diversity they've done a terrific job as a business.
Jon Gray: 所以我想人们脑海中可能存在一种观念,有时媒体会因为私募股权赚了很多钱,那些故事并不好,他们很少讲述有人如何接手一家企业并真正发展它,创造机会和就业的故事。
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and so so I think people have in their minds that I think sometimes the Press because there's been a lot of money made in private Equity those stories are not great and they're rarely telling the stories of how somebody has taken a business and really grown it and created opportunity and created jobs.
Jon Gray: 所以我认为我们所做工作的性质,我们有一个“职业发展路径”计划,我们尝试从服务不足的社区招聘人员到我们的公司。
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and so I think the nature of what we do you know we have a career Pathways program where we try to hire people from underserved communities at our companies.
Jon Gray: 我们有一个计划,在我们一些最大的公司中分享一部分回报。
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um we have a program where we share some of the rewards at some of our largest companies.
Jon Gray: 我认为私募股权过去的样子和今天的样子非常不同。所以这也是我认为回报和回报溢价能够持久的原因之一。
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I think what private Equity was and what it is today are very different and so that's part of the reason why I think the returns and the return premium is enduring.
Niola Tangan: 现在,你们也涉足私人信贷,也就是向公司贷款,有点像进入银行的市场,对吧?这个市场也一直在爆炸式增长。为什么这个市场增长如此之快?
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now um you also into private credit which is lending money to companies kind of in a you know going into the market of of banks right and that's been exploding as well why why has that gone up so much that market?
Jon Gray: 我想说有几点。首先,这已成为我们按资产管理规模(AUM: Assets Under Management, 基金或公司管理的资产总额)计算最大的业务,达到4300亿美元。
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so I I'd say a couple of things first that has grown to be our largest business by AUM it's 430 billion doll um.
Jon Gray: 我们与其他一些参与者略有不同。我们只是一个第三方管理人(Third-party Manager: 为客户管理资产的独立公司),所以我们没有成为保险公司,也没有像银行那样借钱然后赚取溢价。
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and we do it a little differently than some of the other players we're just a third party manager so we haven't become an insurance company been like a bank where you borrow money and then make a premium.
Jon Gray: 我们只是像在私募股权或房地产领域一样,作为第三方管理人来做。这个业务之所以爆炸式增长,我会给出三个原因。
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we're just doing it like we do in private Equity or real estate as a third party manager the reason the business is exploding I'd give you three reasons.
Jon Gray: 第一,你基本上是将投资者——养老基金、捐赠基金、个人投资者、主权财富基金——直接与借款人连接起来,并消除了大量的发起(Origination: 贷款或证券的创建过程)、证券化(Securitization: 将非流动性资产打包成可交易证券的过程)和融资成本。
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one is you're essentially bringing the investor pension fund endowments individual investors Sovereign wealth fund right up to the borrower and you're taking out a lot of origination securitization financing costs.
Jon Gray: 这基本上是一个“从农场到餐桌”的模式,最终投资者获得了更高的回报。他们为此牺牲了一点流动性,但获得了更好的体验。
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it's basically a farmtable model and that ends up with the investor getting a higher return they trade away a bit of liquidity for that but they get a better experience.
Jon Gray: 所以如果你从事持有到期业务,你会获得更高的回报。
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so if you're in the hold to maturity business you get a higher return.
Jon Gray: 第二点,从借款人的角度来看,由于银行通常从事分销业务,他们会告诉借款人:“你的贷款价格是基准利率加300个基点,但如果我无法以这个水平出售,我可以将你调整到加400个基点。”
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the second thing I'd say is from the borrower standpoint because banks are often in the distribution business they'll say to the borrower the price is 300 over on your loan but if I can't sell it at this level I can Flex you to 400 over.
Jon Gray: 而我们经营的是一个“存储”业务,而不是“移动”业务,所以你给借款人提供了更多的确定性。
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and because we're running a storage business not a moving business you're giving more certainty to the borrowers.
Jon Gray: 最后一点,这对金融系统非常有帮助,那就是我们正在进行期限匹配(Duration Matching: 投资组合的资产和负债期限相匹配,以降低利率风险)。
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the final thing which is really helpful for the financial system is we're duration matching.
Jon Gray: 如果你考虑一下在美国破产的First Republic银行,他们拥有700亿美元的超优抵押贷款(Super Prime Mortgage: 指信用评级极高、违约风险极低的抵押贷款)组合,几乎没有违约。
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so if you think about First Republic which went bust here in the US they had a $70 billion super Prime Mortgage book that had almost no defaults at all.
Jon Gray: 但他们破产了,因为20年期抵押贷款与2022年的存款期限不匹配。
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but they went bust because the 20-year mortgages were against 20 22 deposits.
Jon Gray: 如果这些抵押贷款由一家人寿保险公司持有,就不会有问题。
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yeah if they had been held by a life insurance company those mortgage loans there wouldn't have been an issue.
Niola Tangan: 您认为私人信贷未来会受到更多监管吗?
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do you think private credit will be more regulated going forward?
Jon Gray: 我认为,如果私人信贷是我们正在做的那种,即简单地将贷款直接放到保险公司的资产负债表上,就像他们长期以来对抵押贷款所做的那样,我认为人们可能会更多地关注。
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well I I think if the private credit it's what we're doing which is simply taking loans and directly putting them on insurance company balance sheets like they've done with mortgage loans for a long time I think people will may look more.
Jon Gray: 但我认为这有所不同。现在,随着私人信贷参与者越来越多地成为保险公司,承担更多的年金,发行更多的债务,他们可能会受到更多关注。
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but I think that is different now as private credit players become more and more insurance companies take on more annuities issue more debt they probably will be more focused.
Jon Gray: 我会说,我们的竞争对手正在这样做,而且他们做得很好,他们的资产负债表期限比银行更长。
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now I would say our competitors are doing that I think are doing a very good job and they are they do have a longer duration balance sheet than a bank.
Jon Gray: 如果你真的思考一下,融资失败和爆仓的原因来自于过多的杠杆和期限不匹配。
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and if you really think about it the the mistakes in financing blow up come from too much leverage yeah and mismatch duration.
Niola Tangan: 您认为这些产品会向私人客户开放吗?目前只有大型机构才能接触到私募股权和私人信贷。
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do you think these things will be available for private clients for retail clients so far it's like big Institution who have had access to private equity and priv private credit?
Jon Gray: 实际上,我们为个人投资者提供的非投资级私人信贷,也就是我们通过业务发展公司(BDCs: Business Development Companies, 投资于中小型私营公司的公开交易公司)向私募股权管理人提供的贷款。
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well we actually non-investment gr private credit what we do in our bdcs lending to private Equity managers that we do for individual investors.
Jon Gray: 我们有一个产品,目前总资产管理规模达600亿美元,是该领域最大的参与者。
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we have we have a product that today has 60 billion of total AUM it's the largest player in that space.
Jon Gray: 我们还有一个公开交易的BDC,您可以购买Blackstone Secured Lending。所以个人投资者可以接触到更高收益的产品。
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we also have uh public BDC that you can buy Blackstone secured lending so individuals can access it for higher yielding um.
Jon Gray: 在过去四年里,我们通过这些产品做得非常好。我认为它们会随着时间增长。
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and we've done very well having these products for the last four years I think they'll grow over time.
Jon Gray: 在投资级方面,我认为个人投资者还需要一段时间才能获得接触,但我想他们最终也会。只是不会有相同的流动性。
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on the investment grade side I think it'll be some time before individuals get access but I think they will as well there there just won't be the same kind of liquidity.
公司文化与人才招聘
Niola Tangan: 您毕业后就直接加入了这家公司,对吗?
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you joined this firm straight off the school right?
Jon Gray: 是的。
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yes.
Niola Tangan: 我们差不多同时上了同一所学校。我想我们甚至可能在同一时间。您是92年毕业的吗?
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we happen to go uh to the same school pretty much at the same time I think even I think we may have been at the same time did you graduate 92?
Jon Gray: 是的,是的。
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yeah yeah.
Niola Tangan: 但我不知道您是否在图书馆,而我不在,或者反过来。也许您比我更多地在图书馆。我不确定。
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but uh I don't know whether you were in the library and I was not or the other way around uh perhaps you were more in the library than me I'm not sure.
Jon Gray: 我在那里见过你。
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saw you there actually.
Jon Gray: 不,我不知道是不是在图书馆。我可能既在图书馆,也在兄弟会。我很幸运在那里遇到了我的妻子。她也是同班同学。
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no I don't I don't know if it was in the library I I'm probably a bit of Library bit of the fraternity house I was fortunate I met my wife there so she was also a class.
Niola Tangan: 她看起来很像你。
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she looked off to you.
Jon Gray: 是的。
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yes.
Niola Tangan: 那么,当您加入时,它还是一家小公司,对吧?现在它规模巨大。核心文化有什么不同?
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now um when you joined it was a small firm right uh now it's huge um how is the corer culture different?
Jon Gray: 我认为这可能是让公司保持成功的原因,就是它仍然保持着一种小公司的心态。当我加入时,大约有75人。
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you know I think that's the thing that's probably kept the firm and kept it so successful is that there is still sort of a small firm mentality when I joined it it was something like 75 people um.
Jon Gray: 但我们仍然保持着惊人的紧密联系。显然,公司规模更大了,流程也更多了,但我们努力保持“一个公司,一种文化”的理念。
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but we still stay remarkably connected obviously it's bigger there's more process but we try hard to keep sort of this one firm one culture idea.
Jon Gray: 每周一我们都会举行一个叫做“Blackstone TV”的内部Zoom会议,讨论我们对市场的看法,我们在哪里投资,经济状况如何。
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every Monday we do something called Blackstone TV which is an internal Zoom call where we talk about what we see in markets where we're investing Capital what what's happening in the economy.
Jon Gray: 然后我们还有一个摄影比赛。
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and then we have a photo contest so.
Niola Tangan: 你们会录制它吗?还是每个人都参加现场Zoom会议?
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but also do you do you record it or is everybody on is it a live Zoom call?
Jon Gray: 是现场直播。我们最近才开始录制,因为澳大利亚和加利福尼亚的人们理所当然地抱怨说这有点疯狂。
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it's live we just started recording it because the people in Australia in California rightfully said this is a little crazy um.
Jon Gray: 但我们基本上是鼓励每个人都收听。
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but we basically are trying to encourage everybody to tune in.
Niola Tangan: 会议持续多久?
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and how long is it for?
Jon Gray: 45分钟。
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it's for 45 minutes.
Niola Tangan: 每个人都能发言吗?
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can everybody speak?
Jon Gray: 不,我们有特邀演讲者。所以我们是在与世界对话,但我们会邀请公司不同部门的嘉宾来谈论。
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no we have guest speakers so it's we're we're talking to the world but we bring guests in from different parts of the firm talking about it.
Jon Gray: 它的目的是让人们了解我们在做什么,了解使命,并了解公司为何成功,如何应对挑战,以及我们为社区回馈了什么。
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and it's it's designed for people to understand what we're doing understand the mission and have a sense of you know why the firm's succeeding how it's dealing with challenges talk about some of the things we do to give back in communities.
Niola Tangan: 贵公司有多少比例的人会观看?
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What proportion of um the people here actually watch it?
Jon Gray: 专业人士的比例相当高。我们并没有强制要求,但它确实旨在让每个人都感受到集体的使命感。
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pretty high percentage of the professionals we don't really make it it's not so optional it's really designed to be a way so that everybody feels a collective sense of mission here.
Niola Tangan: 是的,我们也是如此。我们每周一开会,半小时。我们公司一半以上的人会收听。
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yeah well so we do exactly the same we have a Monday meeting we do half an hour everybody you know we have more than more than half of the people in the v tunes into that.
Jon Gray: 是的,我认为这很酷。它让我们专注于我们为什么在这里。
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yeah I think it's a cool thing I mean you it focuses in on why we're there.
Jon Gray: 如果你回过头来看那些关于好“社区”的想法,或者当你看到一些事情时,如果我们在通胀数据或经济数据中看到一些东西,最好的沟通方式是什么?
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and if you think about going back to some of these ideas about good neighborhoods or when you see things if we see things in our in inflation data or economic data what's the best way to communicated its scale than to get on there and say we see this and this is influencing how we're seeing things?
Jon Gray: 就是通过这种规模化的方式,上去说:“我们看到了这个,这正在影响我们看待事物的方式。”
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its scale than to get on there and say we see this and this is influencing how we're seeing things?
Jon Gray: 比如,我们认为通胀正在下降,我们认为美联储会因此降息。这些是我们18个月前就开始说的事情。
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you know we think inflation's coming down we think the FED will thus you know lower rates things we started saying 18 months ago.
Jon Gray: 让我们在“一切安全”信号出现之前进行投资。最好的“扩音器”方式是什么?就是一次全公司的Zoom会议,所有专业人士都收听。
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let's invest before the all clear sign and what's the best sort of bullhorn way to do that well an all firm Zoom call with all your professionals tuned in.
Jon Gray: 但再说一次,这又回到了这种文化理念:让人们说:“哦,这个地方工作的人都很好,他们关心他人,他们关心社区。”
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but again it's back to this cultural idea of having people say like oh there are nice people who work at this place they care about others they care about communities.
Jon Gray: 你试图给人们一种感觉,他们是更宏大目标的一部分。
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it's it's um you're trying to give people a sense that they're part of a broader purpose.
Jon Gray: 显然,您正在管理一个国家的财富,我相信为您工作的人,不仅仅是您一个人,而是一个庞大的团队,他们都有一种使命感。
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obviously you're managing the the wealth of a country and I'm sure the folks who work for you not alone with a big team yes but but everybody has a sense of mission.
Jon Gray: 所以我认为你正在努力灌输共同的价值观以及你如何看待世界。
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and so that's what I think you're trying to inculcate Shared values and how you're seeing the world.
Niola Tangan: 你们招聘什么样的人?
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yeah what kind of people do you hire?
Jon Gray: 我们努力招聘那些显然很聪明、有上进心的人。
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we try to hire people who are obviously smart hire people who are driven um.
Jon Gray: 我想如果你问我最重要的一个品质,你已经说过了,这不是一份朝九晚五、一周五天的工作。这里的大多数人都非常努力工作,你需要一个真正关心工作的人。
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I think if you ask me one quality that's the most important one you said it this is not a 9 to five five day a week job most of the people here work very hard and you need somebody who really cares.
Niola Tangan: 你们如何筛选出上进心?
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how do you use how do you screen for drive?
Jon Gray: 你会了解他们以前在哪里工作,或者他们做什么。有时会有一些迹象。
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you know obviously you're you're finding out where they used to work or what they do sometimes there are telltale signs.
Jon Gray: 比如那些从事体育运动、早上五点起床的人;那些父母是移民,为了进入精英学校而付出非凡努力的人。
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you know people who are in athletics getting up at 5: in the morning people who've you know came here as their parents were immigrants and to get to some elite school they had to do extraordinary things to to get to where they have.
Jon Gray: 我不知道,你只是想了解一个人是否真的非常关心他们所做的事情。
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I don't know you're trying to get a sense of somebody who just really cares a lot about what people who do.
Niola Tangan: 工作时间最长的人是否做得最好?
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people who put in the longest hours do they do the best ha?
Jon Gray: 我不认为这是工作时间最长的问题,而是真正关心。
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I don't think it's the longest hours it's really about caring.
Jon Gray: 所以我会说,你真的关心你正在做的事情,没有人会检查你早上8:32是否在你的格子间里。但你真的关心你的演示质量,你的投资委员会材料质量吗?
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so I I would say you you really care about what you're doing and nobody's checking where you at your Cube at 8:32 a.m. but do you really care about the quality of the presentations the quality of your investment committee materials?
Jon Gray: 你身上有一种特质,让你想把事情做对。
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you there's something about you that makes you want to get it right.
Jon Gray: 但我还要补充一点,我们希望招聘那些相信团队合作的人,因为在私募市场投资中,有人必须筹集资金,进行投资,运行模型。
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but then I would add to this we want people who believe in team play because investing in private markets somebody's got to raise the money do the Investments run the models.
Jon Gray: 有人必须处理财务、法律,处理退出。我们需要相信团队合作的人。我们需要友善的人。
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somebody's got to do the finance the legal deal with the exit we need people who believe in team play we need people who are nice.
Jon Gray: 你还需要有情商(EQ: Emotional Quotient, 情绪智力),因为你不仅仅是在屏幕上交易,对吧?
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and you also need people with EQ because you're not just trading on a screen right?
Jon Gray: 你几乎所有的职能都与外部或内部的人打交道。所以你只是想找到那些真正有上进心、优秀、非常关心、有良好判断力且友善的人。如果你能找到这样的人,那真是太棒了。
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you you're dealing almost all our functions with people on the outside or internally and so you're just trying to get like really driven great people who care a ton who have good judgment and are nice and if you can find that that's amazing.
Niola Tangan: 您友善吗?
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are you nice?
Jon Gray: 我希望是,我努力做到。
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I hope to be I try to be.
Niola Tangan: 但您的工作不是友善,对吧?
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but I I would say this Nikolai that but your job is not to be nice right?
Jon Gray: 不,我认为我的工作是为公司争取最好的利益,要严格要求,但这并不意味着你不能善待他人。
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I mean no I think my job is to to want the best for the firm to be demanding but it doesn't mean you can't treat people well everybody up and down.
Jon Gray: 我会说,作为企业领导者,最重要的信号是你雇佣谁,你解雇谁,你提拔谁。
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and I would say this I think as Leaders of businesses the most important signal is who you hire who you fire who you promote.
Jon Gray: 所以如果你把一个重要的职位给了一个聪明但脾气暴躁、虽然能带来业绩却对每个人都很糟糕的人,那会发出一个非常强烈的信号。
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so if you give a big job to the brilliant jerk who puts points on the board but treats everybody terribly that sends a very powerful signal.
Jon Gray: 所以我认为努力寻找那些更友善、更高素质的人,同时他们又非常擅长自己的工作,这有助于你建立一个美好的文化。
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and so I I think trying to get people who are um nicer better quality human beings who also happen to be great at what they do I think that helps you build a wonderful culture.
Jon Gray: 如果你不这样做,人们就很难留下来,因为这不仅仅是经济回报。成功的人希望与他们真正喜欢的人在一起。
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and if you don't it's hard to get people to State cuz it's not just about financial rewards people who are successful they want to be around people they genuinely like.
职业选择与人生感悟
Niola Tangan: 我相信您最初想成为一名记者。您认为您会成为一名优秀的记者吗?
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I believe you initially wanted to become a journalist do you think it would have been a good one?
Jon Gray: 我不知道。
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I don't know um.
Jon Gray: 我不知道。我想我爱上了投资这件事。
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I don't know I think I think I fell in love with this investing thing so I I.
Jon Gray: 我的意思是,它有很多共同点,对吧?你需要非常好奇,寻找某种真相。
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I mean I I so the thing is that it has a lot in common right you need to be really curious search for some kind of truth.
Jon Gray: 我认为有很多相似之处,因为我有一个女儿在媒体行业工作,做播客。她做的很多事情都是写故事,与很多人交谈,阅读大量资料,努力获取事实,然后讲述一个叙事并得出结论。
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I think there's a lot of similarity cuz I have a daughter who who's in the media business and does podcasting and a lot of what she does is she's writing a story she's talking to a lot of people she's reading a bunch she's trying to get the facts and then she's telling a narrative and drawing a conclusion.
Jon Gray: 正如您所说,有很多相似之处。如果你问我最喜欢投资业务的什么,那就是这种智力上的兴奋,试图弄清楚世界将走向何方。
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and to your point there's a lot of similarity and if you said to me what do I love the most about the investing business it's this intellectual excitement to try to figure out where the world's going.
Jon Gray: 是的,分析一些东西并得出结论,你以某种方式看待世界,与其他人略有不同。
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yeah and to analyze something and come to a conclusion and you see the world somehow slightly differently than other people M.
Jon Gray: 结果是,你表达了一个观点,而且不像大多数其他工作,你事后真的会知道:我投入了100美元,我亏了吗?我拿回了100美元还是300美元?
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and as a result you express a view and unlike most other jobs you literally know afterwards I put $100 in that did I lose it did I get back a hundred or did I get back 300?
Jon Gray: 是的,我只是觉得这是你能做的最有趣的事情。
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yeah I just think it's the most interesting thing you could do.
Jon Gray: 你知道,你吃、开、穿的一切都是由某人制造的。它关乎心理学,关乎管理,关乎贪婪和宏观地缘政治。
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you know it's like everything you eat and drive and wear is made by somebody it's about psychology it's about management it's about greed and fair macro geopolitics uh.
Jon Gray: 你知道,一切都在变化,你正在全球各地做这件事。所以下周我会在中东,再下一周我会在亚洲。
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you know everything changes you're doing it around the world and so you know next week I'll be in the middle least the following week I'll be in Asia.
Jon Gray: 你在学习,你在与人交谈,你只是试图吸收尽可能多的信息,并试图将其转化为可操作的投资。
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you're learning you're talking to people you're just trying to take in as much information and you're trying to transform that into actionable Investments.
Niola Tangan: 谈到环游世界和行动,您是一个跑步者,您跑遍了世界各地,并且在LinkedIn上发布。
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talking about being around the world and action so you are a runner you run all over the world and you post on LinkedIn.
Jon Gray: 是的,告诉我您的经历。
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yes tell me about it.
Jon Gray: 这很有趣。当我旅行时,我经常会给我的家人,我的妻子和女儿发一段视频,说:“哦,我在这里,我在世界某个地方,你们可能已经忘了我是谁了。”
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I it's very funny so when I travel I I often would send my family uh my wife and daughters you know a clip saying oh here I am am I'm in some around the world you may forget who I am and whatever.
Jon Gray: 大约一年前我开始使用LinkedIn。我一开始做了一些公司化的内容,但对我来说并不那么有趣。
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and I got on LinkedIn about a year ago I thought you know I did sort of the corporatist stuff at the beginning and it wasn't that interesting to me.
Jon Gray: 我当时在悉尼,在歌剧院旁边跑步,我想:“哇,这太棒了!我喜欢这里。我们在这里有很大的业务,有很多客户。”
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and I was in Sydney jogging by the opera house and I was like wow this is amazing I love being here we have a big business here A bunch of people clients.
Jon Gray: 所以我直接拿起相机说:“我在悉尼,这个那个。”我把它发给我们的人,他们把它发到了LinkedIn上,然后突然之间,这个视频就火了。
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so I literally just took the camera and said I'm in Sydney this and that and I put it I sent it to our people and they put it on LinkedIn and all all of a sudden the thing sort of goes viral.
Jon Gray: 所以你不必那么聪明。就像:“哦,对最后一英里物流(Last Mile Logistics: 物流配送的最后阶段,从配送中心到最终客户)有需求,让我们购买更多的最后一英里物流。”
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so you don't have to be that smart it's like oh there's demand for Last Mile Logistics let's buy more Last Mile Logistics.
Jon Gray: 在这种情况下,对这种展示你跑步的LinkedIn人性化视频有需求,我就做了。
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in this case there is demand for you know these LinkedIn sort of human videos showing you jogging I do that.
Niola Tangan: 那么您在西雅图、加利福尼亚都跑过。您跑过最酷的地方是哪里?
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and so you do it in se you do it in California and what's the what's the coolest place you run?
Jon Gray: 我会说,我一直喜欢华盛顿特区。当我跑到林肯纪念堂时,它给我一种深刻的感觉。
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the coolest place I run you know I I would say I always love Washington DC when I jog up to seps to the Lincoln Memorial it has this sort of profound feeling to me.
Jon Gray: 在日本,有围绕皇宫御苑的5公里跑道。显然,欧洲的城市都有沿着水边很棒的跑道。
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um I love in Japan there's a 5k jog around sort of the Imperial Gardens where the Emperor's Palace is obviously the cities in Europe all have great runs along the water.
Niola Tangan: 您应该说奥斯陆。
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you're supposed to say Oslo.
Jon Gray: 我应该说奥斯陆很棒,因为奥斯陆那条通往议会的主要街道也是一条很棒的跑道。
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I should say Oslo is great CU that Main Street in Oslo what is that up to the parliament at the top is a great is a great run too.
Jon Gray: 但你知道,当你旅行时,其中一件事就是这对你的身体来说很辛苦。
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but it you know when you travel one of the things you know is it's just hard on your body.
Jon Gray: 所以如果你能起床出去跑两三英里,你就会对接下来的一天感觉好一点。
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yeah so if you can get up and go out and it doesn't you don't need to run a marathon you could run two or three miles and all of a sudden you feel a little better about the day ahead.
Jon Gray: 这很有趣,但我有点像创造了一个怪物。我开玩笑说总有一天我会“跳鲨鱼”(jump the shark,指事物达到巅峰后开始走下坡路),但目前我还会继续。
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and um this has been fun but I've sort of created a monster and I've joked at some point I'll jump the shark but for now I keep going.
给年轻人的建议
Niola Tangan: 绝对的,Jon。您对年轻人有什么建议?
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absolutely Joan what is your advice to young people?
Jon Gray: 我认为这又回到了之前的一些观点,那就是你必须非常努力工作,你必须非常关心你正在做的事情。
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I think it goes back to some of the earlier stuff which is you got to really work hard you got to care a ton about what you're doing.
Jon Gray: 我认为这与激情有关。我认为我们之所以成功,原因之一就是我们喜欢它,对吧?
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and I think that ties to the passion I think one of the reasons we're having success at what we do is because we like it right?
Jon Gray: 如果你对你正在做的事情没有这种真正的激情,我认为这会很困难,你应该寻找另一份职业。
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and if you don't feel this genuine passion for what you're doing I think it's hard and you should find another career.
Jon Gray: 另一个建议是,不要害怕发言。我认为挑战之一是,人们经常来到公司,然后安静地坐着。
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the other advice I would say is don't be afraid to speak up I think one of the challenges often times particularly people show up at businesses and they sit quietly.
Jon Gray: 一旦你开始了解你所工作的这个企业是如何运作的,无论是营利性组织还是非营利组织,你都想成为变革的推动者。
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and you know once you start to get a sense of what makes this business you're working at tick could be a nonprofit organiz whatever it is you want to be an agent for Change.
Jon Gray: 几乎每家公司,包括黑石,都可以做得更好。你可以更好地服务客户,你可以减少一些文书工作,你可以找到一个新市场,一个新机会。
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and almost every company Blackstone included can do things better you can serve your customers better you can shorten some of the paperwork you can find a new market a new opportunity.
Jon Gray: 如果你把自己看作一个创业者和变革的推动者,无论你做什么,这都会让你的工作更有趣,与你共事的人也会非常欣赏你,你会从中获得更多。
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if you think of yourself as an entrepreneur and an agent of change in whatever you're doing it makes your job more fun the people you work with really appreciate it you get more out of it.
Jon Gray: 最后一点是,无论你在哪里工作,你都希望感到智力上的挑战,你仍在学习。
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and then the final thing I'd say is wherever you work you want to be feel intellectually challenged you're still learning.
Jon Gray: 我认为,这份工作最棒的部分就是这种持续的学习。这就是我从未寻找过其他工作的原因,因为我总是觉得:“哇,我正在学习新东西。”
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I think I mean I think the best part of the job is this constant learning that's why I've never looked for another job because I'm always like wow I'm learning something new.
Jon Gray: 所以如果你去一个地方,你觉得你在学习和挑战方面不断进步,找到这样的机会会给你带来很多心理上的回报。
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so if you go to a place and you feel like you're continually moving up in terms of what you're learning what the challenge is finding that kind of opportunity again gives you a lot of psychological Rewards.
Niola Tangan: 好的,Jon,您肯定充满激情,并且非常努力工作。如果您正在寻找另一份工作,我相信我们能为您找到合适的位置。
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well John you for sure have passion and working very hard and if you are looking for another jail I'm show we can fit you in somewhere.
Jon Gray: 我不会寻找的,但我很高兴见到您,Niola。非常感谢。谢谢。
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I will I will not be looking but I love seeing you here Nikolai thank you so much thank you.