2025年投资回顾与展望:AI、地缘政治与全球资产配置策略 Norges Bank Investment Management 2026-01-28

2025年全球市场概览与AI驱动的变革

2025年,全球金融市场在多重不确定性背景下展现出惊人的韧性,并创下历史新高。其中,人工智能(AI: 模拟人类智能的机器系统)的崛起成为主导力量,深刻重塑了科技股格局。华尔街科技股因低成本聊天机器人“Deep Seekers”的出现而大幅下跌,引发了AI领导地位的重新洗牌。具身智能(Agentic AI: 数字形式的机器人)正吸引巨额资本,今年股市约80%的涨幅都由AI驱动。中美两国深知,在新技术领域占据主导地位的国家,将成为本世纪最具影响力的强国。与此同时,全球地缘政治紧张局势加剧,贸易战、地区冲突(如乌克兰、以色列与哈马斯、委内瑞拉)持续不断,各国纷纷实施对等关税(Reciprocal Tariffs: 针对他国关税采取相同报复性措施)。尽管面临如此动荡的宏观环境,挪威银行投资管理公司的基金在2025年末仍达到超过21000亿挪威克朗的规模,连续三年实现强劲回报,其中有两年达到两位数增长,总回报超过2300亿挪威克朗,彰显了长期投资策略在不确定时期的重要性。

Original English Source

Technology shares on Wall Street have fallen sharply in response to the emergence of a low cost chatbot, Deep Seekers, already leading to a reranking in AI leadership. Agentic AI is basically a robot in a digital form. AI is sucking up incredible amount of capital. About 80% of the gains in the stock market this year have been powered by AI. And I think the two big nations, China and the US, know that the country that's on top of the new technologies will probably emerge as the most powerful nation also of this century. In a few moments, I will sign a historic executive order instituting reciprocal tariffs on countries throughout the world. Reciprocal, that means they do it to us, and we do it to them. Very simple. We begin with developments from Kyiv ongoing war, like the Ukrainians. I very much hope that we will have peace in Ukraine, but I am worried that we might push peace to keep ceasefire, which will lead to a very expensive peace. You don't have the cards right now. The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, which came into force yesterday, appears to be holding. Is the United States now at war with Venezuela? There's not a war. An all-time high for the market, despite this remarkable backdrop of uncertainty. I actually think to have a long-term plan and a long-term mandate in these turbulent times is a very, very good idea. Right, warm welcome. Who would have thought that with that backdrop, the fund was now at the end of the year, standing at more than 21000 billion. And strong returns, 3 years in a row, 15% up second third year with double-digit returns. And, of course, given the size of the fund, the also the return in Norwegian Kroner has been very strong. So, we also had inflows last year, 327 billion. That is a significant amount, albeit a little bit less than we've seen in the previous three years. So, if you take those three things together, that's what determines the change of the value of the fund from the beginning of the year to the end of the year. The returns are more than 2300 billion. The inflow of 320 billion. And then you have a stronger Kroner, which weakens the value of the fund measured in Norwegian Kroner.

风险预警:四大压力测试情景深度解析

为了应对未来可能出现的极端市场波动,挪威银行投资管理公司发布了一系列压力测试情景,旨在评估基金在各种严峻条件下的表现。这些情景被设计为具有现实基础且可能对基金产生严重影响。首先是AI修正(AI Correction: 市场对AI预期生产力收益未能实现而引发的广泛抛售),即如果AI预期的生产力提升和收入增长未能如期实现,可能导致市场出现大规模抛售。其次是世界碎片化(Fragmented World: 全球经济体分裂成多个贸易壁垒,导致贸易减少、通胀上升和经济增长放缓),在这种情景下,世界将分裂成不同的经济区块,贸易活动减少,通胀加剧,经济增长放缓,这可能对投资组合造成高达37%的严重冲击。第三个情景是区域债务危机(Regional Debt Crisis: 投资者对政府偿债能力失去信心,导致资本从高负债地区流出),即全球多地政府债务高企,一旦投资者对政府偿债能力失去信心,资本将大规模流出这些区域。最后是极端天气情景(Extreme Weather Scenario: 气候变化引发的干旱、洪涝、风暴等自然灾害对农业生产、供应链和宏观经济造成负面影响),模拟了干旱、洪涝、风暴等极端天气事件对农作物生产的影响,进而通过价值链传导,导致经济增长放缓和通胀上升。这些压力测试强调了在复杂多变的市场环境中,识别并量化潜在风险的重要性。

Original English Source

We also released this morning, a set of stress tests. So, those are supposed to be scenarios, which are somehow realistic and very could have very severe impacts on the fund. So, we have four scenarios. One is what we call AI correction, i.e. that, you know, you have a broad market sell-off, should, you know, the expected productivity gains and and income from the AI not materialized. We also have one scenario, which we call fragmented world. And, as you can, you know, understand, it's more about the the world dividing into blocks. You have less trade between these blocks. You have increased inflation. You have lower growth, and that will also impact the portfolio severely, up to 37% as we model. Yeah. Third stress test scenario that you could envisage is a regional debt crisis. So, what that means is that you have high government debt in many parts of the world. And, if the investors lose confidence in the ability for governments to service that debt, they would start to move their capital out of those regions. Yeah. Finally, we also have a fourth scenario, which we call an extreme weather scenario. So, here, we try to model the impact of things like drought, you know, floods, storms, which would have impact on crops, which would feed through the value chain and lower growth and higher inflation as a consequence.

资产类别表现:2025年投资组合细分报告

在2025年,基金的整体相对回报为负28个基点,这主要是由于资产配置的策略性调整所致。具体来看,股票(Equities: 代表公司所有权的证券)市场表现强劲,贡献了正7个基点,是基金整体15%回报率的主要驱动力,其在投资组合中占比高达70%,实现了19%的年度回报。固定收益(Fixed Income: 债券等提供固定或可预测回报的投资工具)资产表现尤为出色,贡献了非常强劲的年度回报,达到5%,占据投资组合约27%的份额。然而,实物资产(Real Assets: 具有内在价值的物质资产,如房地产、基础设施)中的房地产板块表现平平,未上市部分上涨4%,但上市部分下跌4%,总回报为零,由于其表现相对于股票和债券的组合基准而言持平,导致了负的相对回报。基础设施投资组合则取得了18%的良好回报,尽管其在总投资组合中占比最小。此外,由于对股票的低配(Underweight: 投资组合中某一资产类别的权重低于其在基准指数中的权重),资产配置层面产生了负8个基点的影响。尽管如此,自基金成立以来,累计回报仍保持正向,约为2000亿挪威克朗。

Original English Source

Relative returns, negative 28 basis points. And we will explain just where that is coming from. Equities had positive 7 basis points. Fixed income, very strong year. This is the bond portfolio. So really, really great numbers. Real assets, that's real estate. And the reason why those numbers are negative is because the real estate numbers have been flat. But what we measure it against is a combination of stocks and bonds. So, it's the relative kind of result of one thing being flat and the other one continuing to go up, which is the result of that. And then allocation, negative 8, that's mainly an underweight we've had in equities. So altogether, negative 28 basis points. Since inception, still positive, roughly 200 billion Norwegian Kroner. Yeah, so if you go through the different asset classes that the fund is invested in, the 15% on the overall fund is driven by first and foremost, 19%, a very strong year in equity markets. That's the biggest part of our portfolio, 70% as a starting point. Also, very good returns in our infrastructure portfolio of 18%. But that's the smallest part of our portfolio in the middle. Also positive returns for our fixed income portfolio, roughly 30% and also on unlisted real estate.

股票市场洞察:科技、材料与金融的驱动力

2025年股票市场整体表现强劲,在春季因关税引入而出现短暂下跌后,市场迅速平稳复苏并以强势收官。推动这一增长的主要因素有三:首先,基础材料(Basic Materials: 生产初级产品或原材料的行业,如采矿、化工)板块表现尤为突出,金属价格(黄金、白银、铜等)大幅上涨,涨幅超过40%。这背后的驱动力包括:通货膨胀(Inflation: 货币购买力下降,物价普遍上涨的现象)侵蚀了传统货币的信任,促使投资者转向黄金等硬资产;全球对关键金属(Critical Metals: 对经济和国家安全至关重要的稀有金属)短缺的担忧加剧,特别是铜矿供应问题和中国对稀土及下游精炼的控制,引发了各国对供应链安全的关注;最后,AI发展对物理基础设施的巨大需求,如数据中心和AI芯片需要大量铜及其他初级金属,进一步加剧了供需失衡的担忧。其次,金融板块也表现强劲。然而,房地产板块是表现最差的行业。从货币收益来看,鉴于科技板块是最大的板块且包含许多最大持仓,其贡献了近9000亿挪威克朗的回报,金融板块贡献了近7000亿,工业板块贡献了3000亿。在单一公司层面,前十大持仓中科技公司占据主导地位,其中五家是美国科技公司,同时荷兰、韩国和中国等地区的公司也榜上有名。这导致投资组合的集中度风险(Concentration Risk: 投资组合中某一资产或少数资产占比过高,导致其价格波动对整体组合影响过大的风险)进一步增加,前十大持仓目前占股票投资组合的20%,达到历史最高水平。

Original English Source

Okay, equities is up, as Jones said, 19%. And what's been going particularly strong here? Well, the whole market, after a dip in connection with introduction of tariffs in in the spring, the market had pretty kind of smooth recovery and ended the year strong. When you look at what's been driving this, we've had basic material being particularly strong. You've seen what's happened to, to metal prices, gold, silver, copper, and so on, really driving that. Financials also strong, and then real estate being kind of the worst performing sector. In terms of where the monetary gains come from, given that the technology sector is the largest sector and account for many of the biggest holdings, you'll see that returns here, nearly 900 billion. Financial is nearly 700 billions and industrials at 300 billion. Yeah. And, if you break that down even further by single companies and see the contribution from our single company investments, you see this top 10 list dominated by technology, 5 of them, US technology companies, but also a couple of other regions represented this year, Netherlands, South Korea, China. Yeah. And, that means that, and we've spoken about this many times before how the concentration risk of the portfolio has increased, and also through 25 increased even further. So, these top 10 holdings, or the top 10 holdings of of the equity portfolio now constitutes 20% of that portfolio. And highest level. We've we've ever seen yeah. Okay, to explain some of the developments we've seen in the market. We are very pleased to have some of our analysts. Just tell you what's been going on in the market. And we start with Arnab calling in from New York. Arnab. Good morning, Nicolai. Thank you. So, for years, the world of bits and digits outperformed the wars of atoms and molecules, perhaps because they couldn't be quarantined or tariffed. But in 2025, the metals in the periodic table made a very strong comeback. There are three main drivers behind this 40% plus gain. First, inflation has eroded trust in traditional currencies. Hard assets such as gold have been climbing for years, but 2025 was exceptional, with gold stocks rallying over 150% as central banks bought aggressively amid geopolitical uncertainties, wars, territorial emissions and trade disputes. The gold rally also spread to silver and other precious metals. Second, the world fears that we are running short on critical metals. Copper mines around the world have been having supply issues. Meantime, China controls most rare and downstream refining. So governments started asking do we have secure supply and the prices have reflected this concern? Finally, AI needs physical infrastructure. Data centers and AI chips require enormous amounts of copper and other junior metals. This is adding to the fear around the demand supply balances. So in summary, in uncertain times, investors and speculators turn to what is tangible and scarce. You can't print more copper or gold, and this fear and scarcity proved quite valuable in 2025. Thank you so much, Arnab. That's very interesting.

科技板块深度剖析:AI的机遇与挑战

2025年对科技行业而言是又一个非凡的年份,该板块增长超过20%,贡献了市场总回报的近60%。然而,表面之下,这一年也充满了异常的波动性和赢家与输家之间的巨大差距。年初,投资者面临高性能中国AI模型的挑战,开始质疑西方在AI领域的主导地位,导致1月底出现深度抛售。4月的“解放日关税”引发了另一次急剧抛售,但这最终成为股票强劲上涨的起点,投资者重新转向AI基础设施(AI Infrastructure: 支持人工智能系统开发、部署和运行所需的硬件、软件和网络资源)。年末,OpenAI(一家人工智能研究与部署公司)和Oracle(一家全球领先的企业级软件和硬件公司)等公司发布了大量AI公告,但投资者也开始审视这些投资的规模,并对公司间看似循环融资(Circular Funding: 公司之间通过相互投资或贷款,人为抬高估值或掩盖资金来源的融资模式)的现象提出质疑。

在细分领域,并非所有科技公司都表现出色。半导体公司(Semiconductor Companies: 设计和制造半导体芯片的公司)凭借其紧俏的供应脱颖而出,成为相对赢家,而一些软件公司则表现不佳,因为投资者仍在努力评估AI究竟是增强还是颠覆了传统的商业模式。在科技巨头中,Alphabet(Google的母公司)凭借成功推出Gemini 3(Alphabet开发的多模态大型语言模型)成为明显的赢家,至少暂时重新夺回了AI领域的领导地位。展望2026年,AI的普及程度将如何持续是关键问题。全球大型企业已开始大规模部署AI工具,并看到了显著的生产力提升。目前,超过一半的《财富》500强公司正在使用AI代码编辑器Cursor(一款基于AI的代码编辑器),而ChatGPT(OpenAI开发的大型语言模型聊天机器人)每周服务超过8亿用户。然而,市场并非没有风险,我们正为科技领域又一个动荡的一年做准备,围绕潜在泡沫、盈利能力、电力限制以及与中国的竞争等辩论将继续主导市场对话。

Original English Source

We move on to technology, and we will hear from our portfolio manager, Kaina Sucha, who is a portfolio manager in hardware technology. Kaina, are you with us? Absolutely, happy to be here. 2025 was another remarkable year for tech. Can you hear me? Okay, yeah, go ahead. Yeah. 2025 was another remarkable year for tech. As you saw the sector gained over 20% and drove nearly 60% of total marker returns. But under the hood, it was year of exceptional volatility and wide gaps between winners and losers. Most of you may remember the deep sell-off in late January when investors were confronted with the introduction of high-perform Chinese AI models and began questioning Western dominance in AI. Yeah. Liberation Day tariffs in April triggered another sharp sell-off, but was ultimately the starting point for strong rise in stocks through October as investors rotated back into AI infrastructure, while the end of the year saw a growing number of large AI announcements from OpenAI, Oracle and others. Investors again began scrutinizing the size of these investments and started pointing fingers at what looked like circular funding between companies. Yeah. Under the surface, not all tech was in the green last year. Semiconductor companies stood out as the relative winners, especially those that sought tight supply, while certain software companies underperformed as investors grappled with whether AI enhances or disrupts traditional business models. Among the tech giants, Alphabet stood out as a clear winner, reclaiming the AI crown, at least for now, with a successful launch of Gemini 3. The question moving into this year is how the adoption of AI will continue. Large companies around the world have started implementing AI tools at scale and are seeing meaningful productivity gains. Already. Over half of Fortune 500 companies are now using Cursor, the AI code editor, and ChatGPT now serves over 800 million users weekly. But the market isn't without risks, and we're bracing ourselves for yet another volatile year in tech where debates around potential bubbles, profitability, power constraints and competition with China will continue to dominate the conversation. Thank you, Kaina.

金融与固定收益:在不确定中寻求稳定

2025年,金融板块再次表现强劲,整体上涨30%。其中,银行股表现尤为突出,美国大型银行如花旗集团(Citigroup)和高盛(Goldman Sachs)以及许多欧洲银行的股价都翻了一番。值得注意的是,欧洲银行指数在过去五年中已跑赢“七巨头”(Magnificent Seven: 指美国市值最大的七家科技公司)。银行表现强劲主要有三个原因:首先,经济持续增长,刺激了贷款需求,并确保了强劲的偿债能力。其次,华尔街市场繁荣,波动性创造了交易机会,企业乐观情绪上升则推动了并购服务需求。第三,监管机构、政界人士和银行都致力于促进经济增长,形成了协同效应。展望未来三年,市场预期银行盈利将持续增长,但这需要华尔街和经济保持增长势头。鉴于当前价格走势,实现这一目标的门槛已大幅提高,因此投资团队正采取更谨慎的策略,将风险敞口降低,并转向金融服务中一些此前不受青睐的细分市场。

与此同时,固定收益市场在2025年尽管经历了关税冲击、AI革命、地缘政治动荡和财政担忧等诸多事件,但整体而言仍保持相对平静。市场面临着AI将导致生产力提高、通胀降低、利率下降,还是会引发投资增加、能源需求上升、利率走高这一复杂问题。在诸多变数下,各国央行在制定利率政策时需权衡多方因素。2025年固定收益市场呈现两大主要模式:一是大型经济体10年期国债收益率差异缩小,例如英国和美国因央行降息而收益率下降,而日本因加息和财政担忧而收益率上升。二是收益率曲线显著陡峭化,即央行下调短期利率后,短期与长期借贷成本之间的差距扩大,这反映了不确定性增加、投资者偏好变化以及预期发行量增加。例如,欧洲央行去年四次降息,但德国10年期国债收益率仍略高于年初水平,主要受政府支出预期增加的推动。展望2026年,固定收益市场将继续面临更多不确定性和冲击。

Original English Source

We are moving on to financials, and we have Phil joining us from London. By it here, Nicolai, it's a pleasure to be with you again. As your chart showed, financials delivered another strong year up 30%. At the top of the list were the banks, big banks in the US like Citigroup and Goldman Sachs, but notably European banks, many of whom doubled during the year and perhaps interestingly for you in the room, the European Bank index has now outperformed the Magnificent Seven over the last five years. Why is this happening? So, let's focus on the banks. And I'll give you three reasons. Firstly, economies have continued to grow. This has fueled loan demand and has meant that debt servicing has remained very strong. Secondly, Wall Street is booming. This is a combination of volatility, which is creating trading opportunities and rising corporate optimism, which is fueling demand for mergers and acquisitions services. And. Thirdly, regulators, politicians and banks are all aligned in trying to get their economies to grow. Where do we go from here? And this is a bit more tricky. Market now expects that banks will continue to grow their earnings in each year for the next three years. This needs Wall Street to keep going and economies to keep growing. This is certainly possible, but the bar is a lot higher given price movements. So on the team, we are taking less risk today than we were 12 months ago, and we have rotated at the margin into some of the less favored segments of financial services. Let's see if that works. But that's what I have you today. Okay. Thanks a lot, Phil. So, we'll move from equities to fixed income now. That's roughly a third of the portfolio or 27% to be exact. It had a strong year last year. We had 5% returns on our fixed income portfolio. And to talk about what happened in the fixed income markets. We have Gudri Hado, who is head of fixed income Europe for us. Good. It, please, mine. Okay. Yeah. So 2025 was a year when a lot of things happened, and yet fixed income markets were still for the most part, and with a major exception, relatively calm, so you had tariff shocks, AI revolution, geopolitical shocks, renewed fiscal concerns. And then uncertainty both about how these would actually play out, but also about how they would affect inflation, labor markets, monetary policy. So take AI, is it going to lead to increased productivity, therefore, lower inflation, therefore, lower rates? Or is it going to lead to increased investment, higher energy demand, and therefore, higher rates? And so with many moving pieces, what are central bank policymakers weighing when they set their interest rates? So, if you look at the market, there is sort of two main patent in 2025. That I can see the first one, which is a smaller difference between the 10 year yields in large economies, that isn't necessarily strongly connected to either one of these shocks. So, the highest yields, the UK and the US, they saw their ten year rates fall as central banks cut interest rates and lower yielded Japan moved in the opposite direction. So yields rose as Japan raised rates, but also as fiscal concerns mounted. And second yield curves steepened significantly. So, that is, as central bank cut short-term interest rates, the gap between the short-term and the long-term costs widened. So, that's due to increase uncertainty as well changes to investor preference and also expected increased issuance. So say Germany, for example, the ECB cut rates four times last year, and yet German ten year yields ended slightly higher than where they started, which was largely driven by expectations of increased government spending. So looking ahead to 2026, it's already clear that it will continue to be a year with more uncertainty and more shocks. And we look forward to following it. Very good, Gudri.

房地产与可再生能源:新策略与增长动能

在经历了几年由利率上升驱动的市场动荡后,2025年房地产市场相对稳定,但缺乏与科技等更具吸引力领域相比的相对吸引力,整体表现平淡。未上市房地产上涨4%,上市房地产下跌4%,总回报为零。然而,数据中心(Data Centers: 集中存放计算机服务器和网络设备的设施,用于存储、处理和分发数据)领域却异常火爆,市场情绪高涨。尽管上市房地产市场甚至回吐了前一年的部分涨幅,但市场对复苏的预期可能被过早地提前了。房地产市场的复苏信号几乎肯定将来自其强劲的入住基本面(Occupational Fundamentals: 衡量房地产市场健康状况的关键指标,如租金增长、空置率和新开发项目),目前租金正在逐步上涨,而开发和新建筑活动则保持低迷,这通常是新一轮复苏即将形成的迹象。展望2026年,我们预计基本面将继续改善,新的投资策略将能够抓住那些在多年动荡后急于出售的卖家的机会,因此我们对未来持谨慎乐观态度。

与此同时,可再生能源基础设施(Renewable Energy Infrastructure: 用于生产、传输和分配可再生能源的物理系统和设施)作为一项资产类别,在五年前开始受到关注,基金最初在构建该投资组合时采取了审慎缓慢的策略,但近几年已加速布局,并扩充了团队。2025年,该领域表现非常出色。全球可再生能源建设速度创下历史新高,仅去年一年就新增了800吉瓦的容量,相当于挪威整个电力生产系统20倍的规模,而挪威建设其系统耗时125年。此外,全球几家最大的可再生能源公司的股价在2025年趋于稳定甚至有所上涨。这主要是因为全球对电力的需求激增,以满足数据中心、AI、电动汽车和热泵等日益增长的需求,我们正目睹一切电气化(Electrification of Everything: 经济和社会各个领域对电力需求的普遍增长趋势)。风能和太阳能仍然是新增容量最经济、最快捷的方式,并得到了日益优化的电池技术的支持。然而,这也带来了新的瓶颈,例如将清洁能源输送到需求地的电网(Grid: 输送电力的网络系统)。2025年,我们对未上市可再生能源的投资超过以往任何时候,达到了1000多亿挪威克朗,在全球风电场和太阳能项目持有股份。与RWE(一家德国能源公司)的新合作确保了我们在欧洲最大海上风电场的重要地位,仅这两笔交易就使我们的投资组合规模翻了一番。2025年最大的单笔投资是获得了德国最大的输电系统运营商TenneT Germany(一家德国输电系统运营商)22%的股份,这些输电系统对于实现能源转型和保障能源安全至关重要。未来我们将继续投资于回报稳健、技术不断进步、国家稳定且基础设施至关重要的领域。能源转型势不可挡,它已成为常态化业务的一部分,并且正在以前所未有的速度推进。

Original English Source

Okay, real estate. So, as you know, real estate has been an area where we have not performed well over the last few years. Last year, the unlisted part were up 4%, but the listed part was down 4. So total result. Here is is a big fat 0. We have made changes. We have a new strategy, which is out. And we also have new management running this. And we are pleased to have Alex with us from California. So pretty, pretty early for you. Good morning. Thank you Nikcoai. So for real estate, 2025 was a year of relative stability after several years of turbulence in the markets, really driven by the rise in interest rates. And so while an unexciting year was a relief for some, it still suffered real estate that is from a lack of relative appeal compared to those more exciting areas like tech. The one area that was hot in our space was data centers. And the exuberance there was seen every day. But aside from that, the sentiment was relatively muted. Yeah. At the same time, the list, the excuse me, at the same time listed real estate even gave back some gains from the prior year. The expectation of a recovery was brought forward in listed markets, perhaps more than was more than was pardon me more than people expected. So the market has been looking for that sign of recovery where it's going to come from is almost certainly from what our actually quite strong occupational fundamentals. Okay. Rents have been gradually rising. Development, and new construction is subdued, and that is always the sign of a new recovery about to form. So, we expect the fundamentals to continue to improve through the course of 2026. We expect our new strategy to be able to take advantage of sellers who now, at the end of those years of turbulence need to sell. And so we're cautiously optimistic about the road ahead of us. Thank you. Thank you, Alex. And thank you for staying up for us. So, we'll round off this walk through of the different asset classes with infrastructure for renewable energy. So, this is an asset class that came into demand that five years ago. We were deliberately slow in building up that portfolio. But that has changed over the last few years. So, now we're ramping up. We also built out the team. So, we think we are in a very good position to build this portfolio even further. It had a very good year last year. And to tell us more about that, we have Hadal from Hyn, who is our global head of energy and infrastructure. Hu. Thank you, John. Yes. We are seeing that the renewables are coming back into favor for sure and also record pace of buildouts. Last year alone, we saw a global buildout of 800 gigawatts of new renewable capacity that's like adding 20 times of Norway's entire power production system in just one year. And this took Norway 125 years to build. Also, we saw that the share prices of several of the largest renewable energy companies in the world have stabilized or even moved up somewhat in 2025. Why? Well, the world needs more electricity for data centers for AI electric cars, heat pumps and so on. We are seeing the electrification of everything. And, wind and solar are still the cheapest and fastest way to add new capacity now also supported by ever better batteries. This has created new bottlenecks, such as the grid, which is needed to move this clean energy to where people are. At EmBM, we have invested more than ever in unlisted renewable energy in 2025, over 100 billion Norwegian Kroners. We have now stakes and wind farm and solar farm projects around the world. We have a new partnership with RWE in 2025, which secured significant positions in the largest offshore wind parks in Europe. These two transactions alone more than doubled our portfolio. Our single biggest move in 2025 already, however, was to secure a 22% stake in TenneT Germany, Germany's largest TSO transmission system operator. These transmission systems are critical for enabling the energy transition and for energy security. We'll continue to invest going forward, where we find the most robust returns, most improving technologies, stable countries, and essential infrastructure. The energy transition is not going away. It gets less attention because it's become part of normal business, but it's moving faster than ever. Thank you, Tro. Thank you. Thank you, Harald.

总结:2025年基金业绩与未来展望

综上所述,2025年对挪威银行投资管理公司而言是又一个强劲的年份。基金实现了15%的年度回报,按会计核算超过2000亿挪威克朗,是表现最好的年份之一。尽管略低于基准28个基点,但基金在年末的总规模超过25000亿挪威克朗。公司一如既往地公布了所有持仓,以确保透明度。面对AI的颠覆性影响、复杂的地缘政治格局以及全球经济的结构性转变,基金通过多元化的资产配置和前瞻性的风险管理策略,在不确定性中取得了显著的投资成果,并为未来的持续增长奠定了基础。

Original English Source

Okay, so we'll round off this press conference with the key points for 25. Another strong year, 15% returns in accounting terms. That's more than 2000 billion Norwegian Kroners. So, one of the strongest returns there as well. We were slightly behind the benchmark, 28 basis points, and the funds stood at more than 25000 billion Kroner at the end of the year. We also published all our holdings as.

📌 文中提及的人物和组织

关键字: ai-impact asset-allocation market-volatility geopolitical-risk renewable-energy-investment