政策反复与军事对峙:特朗普的霍尔木兹海峡博弈及经济变局
在对外政策方面,美国总统特朗普在宣布向通过霍尔木兹海峡的船只征收通行费的激进计划后,迅速撤回了该提议,并重新回到军事施压的策略上。特朗普表示他不赞成收费的理念,认为必须保持航道自由,否则其他国家也会效仿。美军随后对伊朗目标实施了长达7小时的新一轮空袭,而伊朗军方也针对巴林、科威特和约旦的美军设施发起了反击,尽管这些袭击据称均被拦截。这种剧烈的政策波动反映出特朗普在应对强硬对手时更倾向于即兴发挥和直觉决策。与此同时,六月份的经济数据显示,在停火协议生效期间,美国通货膨胀(Inflation: 货币贬值导致物价持续上涨的经济现象)有所放缓,这主要得益于能源及非能源领域价格的普降。但随着近期油价回升,未来的通胀走势仍面临巨大的不确定性。
Original English
Here's what we're covering. After announcing a drastic plan for the US to charge ships a fee to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, President Trump quickly backtracked on his own proposal yesterday. "Frankly, it's better cuz I don't like the idea of a fee. It's got to remain free because other otherwise others will do the same thing." And he returned to the approach he had at the start of the war, that the US will strike Iran, "very hard," until the country agrees to make a peace deal. The US military said it carried out a new round of attacks overnight that stretched for 7 hours. "The only way you can negotiate with these people is through strength, and the only strength is military strength." Analysts say the abrupt flip-flop underscores how much Trump seems to be relying on impulse and improvisation as he tries to confront an adversary that is not bending. He has pivoted between tactics, at times contradicting his own administration and himself. One expert on Iran told The Times, "On the one hand, he keeps saying, 'We want to make a deal with you guys and make Iran a thriving economy.' And on the other hand, he says, 'I'm going to obliterate your civilization.'" Another analyst said that much of the president's foreign policy this term, whether it's tariffs or the US's new role in running Venezuela, has depended on the willingness of other countries to make concessions. But with Iran, he's encountered a country that is not willing to play by his set of rules. The Iranian military launched its own strikes overnight targeting US military facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan. Officials in all three countries said the attacks were being intercepted. Meanwhile, new federal data released yesterday showed that last month, when the ceasefire was still in place, inflation slowed. "We've seen oil prices come down over the last few weeks and that has flowed through to gas prices, but we also saw broader improvement. Even when you strip out energy, we saw slower inflation in June. And so that's an encouraging sign that we might see some continued progress on inflation as the year goes on." Ben Casselman is the Times' chief economics correspondent. "The big caveat, of course, is that oil prices have been rising again. This data was from before the ceasefire began to break down. And so as oil prices rise, that's going to affect prices in July and August and going forward."
执法争议与司法风暴:ICE执法暂停、布兰奇听证会及特朗普赔偿案
在美国国内事务方面,联邦执法与司法体系正面临多重变动。针对德克萨斯州和缅因州接连发生的两起因追击车辆导致执法人员开枪致死事件,美国移民和海关执法局(ICE: U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement,美国负责边境管控与非法移民遣返的联邦机构)已接到命令,暂停执行大部分交通拦截。尽管白宫边境事务主管汤姆·霍曼坚称这只是确保操作规范的临时停顿而非政策改变,但自特朗普重返执政并推动更具攻击性的移民执法以来,已有22人遭到联邦探员开枪射击,且这些探员均未配备执法仪。在华盛顿,代理司法部长托德·布兰奇即将面临关键的参议院提名确认听证会。作为特朗普的前私人辩护律师,他在此前清算司法部官员及涉嫌政治意图的起诉中所扮演的角色引发了极大争议。此外,在最高法院拒绝审理上诉后,特朗普已按照地方法院法官的命令,向作家卡罗尔支付了总计560万美元的名誉诽谤及性虐待赔偿金及利息。
Original English
Now, a few other quick updates on the Trump administration, starting with the immigration crackdown. As of yesterday, ICE have been ordered not to carry out most traffic stops following back-to-back deadly shootings in Texas and Maine where agents fired on drivers after pursuing their vehicles. "I think it's going to be a short pause and I'm confident that ICE is well trained in vehicle stops and you're going to see us keep moving forward. But this is a..." In an interview on Fox News, White House border czar Tom Homan said the order is not a policy change but a temporary pause "to make sure we're doing the right thing." Since Trump returned to office and pushed for more aggressive immigration enforcement, 22 people have been fired on by federal agents, nearly all of them while in vehicles. Beyond questions about traffic stops, the recent shootings have also highlighted the slow rollout of body cameras to ICE agents. Earlier this year, DHS pledged that the government would "rapidly acquire and deploy the technology," but currently, only about half of ICE field offices have body cameras, and none of the agents involved in the recent shootings were wearing them. Also, in Washington today, Todd Blanche, the acting US Attorney General, will face a crucial Senate hearing as he tries to get confirmed to the role. Blanche, who used to be Trump's personal defense lawyer, is expected to face sharp questions about his role in some of the DOJ's controversial actions over the last 18 months. That includes the government's handling of the Epstein files, mass firings at the DOJ, and politically motivated prosecutions of the president's perceived enemies. "We've had powerful attorneys general, but this is an entirely different situation. This view that Trump has of the Justice Department being an extension of his will, and Blanche's essential acquiescence to that model, are completely new in terms of the annals of the department." My colleague Glenn Thrush says today's hearing could be a big rebuke of how the White House has eroded the traditional independence of the DOJ. But, it may also end up being largely symbolic because Blanche could continue to serve in an acting capacity even if he doesn't get confirmed. And last update, according to online court records, President Trump has paid the writer E. Jean Carroll $5.6 million, the amount with interest, that a jury awarded her back in 2023 after it found Trump liable for sexually abusing her in a Manhattan department store in the '90s, then defaming her by calling her accusation a hoax and a lie. Trump had been trying to appeal the verdict, going all the way to the Supreme Court. But, after the justices declined to review the case, a lower court judge ordered Trump to make the payment.
公共卫生隐忧与商业版图:环孢子虫疫情蔓延及餐饮跨国扩张
在公共卫生与商业市场方面,多项社会热点同样引人关注。全美范围内已确诊的环孢子虫(Cyclospora: 一种通过受污染食物或水传播的单细胞寄生虫,能导致严重的腹泻等肠道疾病)感染病例在几天内几乎翻倍,疫情波及超过30个州。其中密歇根州灾情最为严重,报告病例超3000例,远超往年均值。由于该寄生虫的潜伏期长达数周,溯源极其困难。同时,去年美国疾病控制与预防中心(CDC)悄然缩减了最全面的食品传播疾病监测网络,这使得公共卫生专家难以实施有效的流行病学追踪。而在商业领域,美式墨西哥快餐连锁巨头奇波雷(Chipotle)本周宣布在墨西哥蒙特雷开设其首家门店。尽管业界对其美式风味能否在墨西哥本土被接受存在质疑,但其标志性的定制卷饼碗等创新模式仍被寄予厚望。历史上塔可钟(Taco Bell)曾两度折戟墨西哥市场,奇波雷此番反向扩张尝试无疑充满了商业博弈的色彩。
Original English
Around the US, the number of confirmed Cyclospora infections has nearly doubled in a matter of days as officials race to identify what's behind the rise in cases, which can cause severe diarrhea. People have gotten sick from the parasite in more than 30 states. Michigan's been the hardest hit with more than 3,000 reported cases, up from an average of just 40 to 50 in a typical year. Cyclospora infections often come from eating contaminated produce, but unlike many other foodborne illnesses, it can take weeks before you start feeling sick. That makes it harder to track for public health experts who have to interview people and try to get them to remember everything they've had to eat or drink over that period. Those tracing programs have also been severely underfunded, and last summer the CDC quietly scaled back the country's most comprehensive system for tracking foodborne illness outbreaks. One expert in infectious diseases told the Times that as a result, the US is probably missing a lot of cases, but "We will never know because we don't have the surveillance system in place to really look for it." In the past, Cyclospora outbreaks have been linked to fresh fruits and vegetables, including lettuce, raspberries, and other foods. And experts say rinsing produce before eating it can reduce your risk of getting sick.
And finally, the burrito chain Chipotle is celebrating a grand opening this week in a place it sees as an untapped market, Mexico. "We believe that Mexico is a really important milestone for our great brand, and we believe what we do and what we offer will really resonate with the Mexican community." The company's CEO has been talking up its south of the border expansion. The first ever Chipotle in Mexico will open in Monterey tomorrow and it has plans for more. Now, there are plenty of valid questions about whether there's going to be a market in Mexico for an American spin on Mexican food. One restaurant industry analyst told the Times that Chipotle's burrito bowls could help them out there. The heaping customizable bowls are the company's best selling item in the US and could bring a bit of novelty. The expert made a comparison between Chipotle's ambitions and how Starbucks in the late '90s expanded into Europe. Famous for its cafe culture, initially Europe was not seen as a market that needed another place to buy a cappuccino and look at it now. But, bringing Mexican-inspired food back to its roots could be a bit more fraught. Just ask Taco Bell. The chain opened locations in Mexico twice, in the '90s and then again in the early 2000s, but it did not catch on. Those are the headlines. I'm Tracy Mumford. We'll be back tomorrow.