Host: It's fire season again, and lately we're breaking records, the kind you don't want to break. So what's the outlook for this year and are we prepared? Mike Flanagan is a professor of wildland fire at Thompson Rivers University in Kamloops, B.C. Great to have you on the line, Mike. How are you doing?

Mike Flanagan: Great to be with you. I'm doing great.

Host: All right. Let's take a look at Canada's recent wildfire history. This chart is from the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre. Shows the total annual area burned in Canada from about 2010. We can see things are fairly stable. Then a sudden drop in 2020 and a huge spike there just on the right hand of the screen in 2023 and again in 2025. There seems to be extreme spikes both up and down in recent years. So Mike, one has to ask, what does 2026 have in store for us in this country when it comes to wildfires?

Mike Flanagan: Well, first, a big disclaimer. It's April, so you know what's going to happen. This fire season depends on the day to day weather during the fire season and the number of ignitions we see. And by weather I mean hot, dry, windy weather. We get those and ignitions. It could be a busy summer. Having said that, though, there are indicators that suggest what may happen. One is drought. Much of Canada is abnormally dry or in drought, and that sets the stage for an active fire season. Also, the summer forecast is for many parts of Canada, especially the West, to be a hot summer and and in places dry. So that also is a strong indicator of active fire season. And you know, the warmer we get, the more fire we see. And people say, why is that? Well, the one we get, the longer the fire season, the warmer we get, the more lightning we expect. The longer the warmer we get it. It gets better drying out the fuels, the dead fuels on the forest floor, needles, twigs, leaves. So it's easier for a fire to start, whether it's from a lightning strike or from human activities. And more of that stuff's available to burn, which leads to higher intensity fires that are difficult to impossible to extinguish.

Host: You had mentioned drought. Are there particular areas right now in the province that you're kind of keeping an eye on in terms of areas of concern? I know, again, as you said, quite early, but areas, particularly in the east or in the West, as you mentioned.

Mike Flanagan: So within Canada, you know, it's mostly the West, but within Ontario around the elbow. You know, that part in Ontario and Manitoba, where bands like an elbow, that area, you know, northwestern Ontario, that's the prime territory for Ontario for this 2026 fire season.

Host: From what I gather, forecasting for wildfire is notoriously difficult, but it is something that you do quite well. And I am curious, are we getting better at forecasting wildfires as the technology gotten better? And more importantly, is what we're going to forecast this year in 2026, is this going to be a big indicator as to what sort of the new realities are for Canadians?

Mike Flanagan: Yeah. So first, you know, we've had three really active fire seasons. About 8% of our forest has burned in the last three years. So we've never seen three years like this. I always used to say, oh, you know, some years will be cooler and wetter and we'll get a break. And, you know, I still believe that regionally for like Ontario or Quebec, that's the case. But nationally, we're a big country. So somewhere it's going to be hot and dry and we get ignitions and we're going to have an active fire season. So to me, 2026 is a litmus test. If it's another bad fire season, then I expect the new reality is that most years are going to be a bad fire season. And you know, for folks in Toronto, your place, you know, isn't going to burn down from world on Fire. However, the quality of your life can be in the tank for weeks because of smoke. Smoke from a fire 1000km away can make your life miserable. And you know, that's what we're living with now in terms of forecasting, yes, we are getting better, especially, you know, forecasting extreme fire weather. And, you know, stepping back just for a second, there's a recipe for wildfire and it's universal. It applies to Ontario. It applies to the Amazon. And it has three ingredients. First is fuel vegetation. How much, how dry, what type. Second, ignition people and lightning. And in Canada and in Ontario, it's about 50 over 50. And third hot, dry, windy weather. So if we can forecast the hot dry, windy weather, ignitions are a little more tricky. But there are models out there and we know where the fuel is. That's pretty static, how dry it is that that does change day to day.

Host: Mike, to what extent is climate change responsible for these recent record breaking wildfires that we've been seeing?

Mike Flanagan: So in Canada right now, our ten year average annual burn is about 4 million hectares. And that probably doesn't mean much to your audience. It's about twice the size of Lake Ontario. It's a huge territory. In the 70s, you know, you showed data for the last 15, 16 years. Our records go back to the 1950's, and in the 1970's it was about 1 million hectares. So it's almost a quadrupling of area burned in Canada. And I attribute this largely not solely to human caused climate change. I can't be any clearer than that. Western United States has also seen a quadrupling of area burn. And it's because we're getting warmer and people say, well, why is temperature so important here? I'm not talking about an individual fire like the Fort McMurray fire. I'm talking about fire over a large area like Ontario and over a longer period of time. And it's because our fire season is getting longer, not every year, but on average, our fire season is getting longer because we're warmer. We're expecting more lightning as it gets warmer. 50% of the fires are started by lightning, but they're responsible for 90% of the area burned in. The last reason is as the temperature warms, it's very effective at drying out fuels, which means it's easier for fires to start and spread.

Host: I want to get a better understanding of our firefighting abilities in this province. Are we keeping pace with the scale and intensity of these fires? As you mentioned, fire season is getting longer. There is a lot of, you know, you need a lot of manpower on the ground to deal with these as well if they're extending for days. So help me understand, do we have the ability here in the province to deal with it?

Mike Flanagan: So first of all, Canadian fire management agencies are among the best in the world and Ontario's among the best in Canada. They are professional, well trained. Do we have enough resources? Probably not for the fires we've been seeing the last few years. There's something called the national preparedness level, and there's five levels, and level five means we have no resources in Canada. We've been in NPL National Preparedness Level five for the last three years. 2 or 3 days have been at that level five, which means no resources. And we have to go with the States or South Africa or Europe or Australia to bring them in. But, you know, I will say that the approach that Ontario uses, and I'll call it appropriate response, is the way to go to deal with fire in this age. And what that means is they make an assessment on every fire that occurs. So a fire starts two kilometres from Timmins that's unwanted fire, and we go put it out. If a fire starts 100km north of Timmins, they look at, you know, where will it spread in the next week or two? Will it impact infrastructure communities? And they actually look at whether it would be beneficial. They're the only fire management agency that considers the benefits of wildfire. And yes, there are benefits, things like spruce budworm in the East Mountain, pine beetle in the west fires a great agent knocking down these pests and diseases. And it's just Mother Nature doing her work. So fire management should allow Mother Nature when and where possible to do her thing. And you know, these this decision has to be made rapidly within five minutes because when a fire starts and it's an unwanted fire, the sooner you get to it, the better. And that's why, you know, reporting a fire right away. 310 fire 911 is, you know, if you see a fire report right away, especially this time of year, it's spring because you have a lot of dead organic material from last season. And most of the fires started this time of year are by people.

Host: With that being said, I am curious what should Canada be doing more, whether it's at the federal level or the provincial level, to better prepare for what is to come? As I understand, you know, the Canadian government doesn't have sort of the equivalent in the US as FEMA, the the Federal Emergency Management Agency, something that, you know, all in one can kind of deal with the with the concerns here. But what can the other levels of government be doing?

Mike Flanagan: So, you know, I just mentioned we're short on resources. So there's different ways you could give money to the provinces. You could buy water bombers. And actually they're contracting water bombers out this year. Correct. It is an active fire season. But I think having a Federal emergency Management agency is the way to go. We should explore what's being done around the world and apply that to the Canadian context so that we can deal with floods, hurricanes, fires, you know, like hurricanes, for example. There's a hurricane centre and we should be doing that for fire. And actually, I'm going to start a weekly fire weather outlook for the country and post it online. So we can kind of keep an eye on what's coming because we can tell most of the time when that extreme fire weather is coming. And that means be prepared. And yeah, as I said, they're more difficult, but we do know where the existing fires are, and we can kind of know where the lightning may occur. And so we can be better prepared and move resources ahead of time to those locations and being more proactive. Emergency management has phases prevention, mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery. Fire management is great at response preparedness. They're pretty good, but we can be a little more proactive. And of course, things like prevention and mitigation for every dollar you spend there, it usually saves you five, ten, $15 down the road in disaster costs.

Host: I want to get some thoughts and ideas for our viewers who are watching here in Ontario and those in Canada. We have some vast areas of rural communities and towns in this province. We also have urban centres. So for those who are watching, what's one thing that they should understand about wildfire risk this summer and how they can be better prepared?

Mike Flanagan: So observe fire bans. If you're in a higher risk location, if you're in, you know, a community surrounded by forests, especially if it's a conifer forest, which supports what we call a crown, fire spreads from the forest floor to the tops or crowns of the tree. Those are the high intensity fires that are the problem. Have a go bag ready. And you know if if you see a fire report right away. 310 fire 911 and have escape routes planned, especially if your community with only one road in or out, that can be a real issue. Or if you're a fly in community, I mean, fire disproportionately affects indigenous communities in northern remote communities where you don't have escape routes like a road or two. So, you know, just keep an eye on the, you know, the province will have fire weather forecasts and alert the public when things are high, high danger. And they actually do have agreements with industry to either slow down or shut down during periods of high fire danger. So just stay tuned. And if you see smoke, you know, report it right away and be prepared to leave if it's close by.

Host: What should people know about the Fire Smart Canada program?

Mike Flanagan: So Fire Smart has seven principles. And you know, what we need to do is be Fire Smart communities in high risk locations. And the thing is, it really needs to be mandatory because, you know, things like flammable building materials, flammable material right adjacent to your home, especially that 0 to 1.5 metre zone. It should be free of flammable material. A fire typically enters a community through a rain of embers, little burning bits of twig bark, sometimes pine cones. And that's how the fire spreads into a community. But the problem is, if you're close to your neighbour and they're not Fire Smart, those embers will catch their house on fire, and then it will spread structure to structure. So even if you do everything right, you can be toasted because it's not done across the board. And I'll give you an example, Jasper. Unfortunately, a third of the town burned down in 2020 for the new builds are making to the Fire Smart principles. Mandatory building materials cannot be flammable. And that zone 0 to 1.5 metres has to be free of flammable material. So we're on the path and Ontario supports Fire Smart. I believe they're increasing funding for it, but we really have to look at making it using regulations because if you make it voluntary, it won't happen.

Host: Mike, we are going to end things there. Thank you so much for breaking this all down for us today.

Mike Flanagan: My pleasure.