Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Thoughts podcast. I'm Tracy Aloway

and I'm Joe Wisenthal.

Joe, can I start this conversation with what will seem like a random story, but I swear I have a point.

and go on.

Okay. So, a long long time ago when I was visiting my mother in Beijing one winter, she was working out there.

Beijing winters are really cold. They're really dry.

And I was sat in her apartment and all of a sudden I hear this giant crack.

And I run downstairs and it turns out the console that the TV was on had just like completely split in half because the air was so dry and it was so freaking cold.

And I never considered that you could have weather locations where the weather was so extreme that you actually had to factor that into your furniture.

I never thought I mean I do have one sort of connection to that which is uh we're going to start bragging about our international experiences etc.

You know, I've mentioned my family lived in uh Malaysia for a year and we bought this big round table that we brought back with us to Illinois

and I do remember now that there was some discussion about like, oh, this was designed for the humidity of Malaysia, etc.

Maybe have some natural give, etc., but it was fine.

But it's funny you say that cuz yes, now I would not have remembered that otherwise.

All right. Well, the reason I bring it up,

we're so sophisticated in international

sophisticated. I hope everyone's factoring in climate considerations into their furniture, but there is actually a reason that I'm bringing that up, which is we are in Alaska, and Alaska does have cold, very, very dry winters, and it's also very, very large.

It's very hard to get things into and out of the state.

And so, I think it would be really interesting if we actually talked about the furniture industry within Alaska.

We need no more introduction. We need no more. Let's do it.

All right. So, we do in fact have the perfect guest. We're going to be speaking with Dave Kavitt.

He is the CEO and founder of Furniture Enterprises of Alaska.

So, really the perfect person to speak to. Dave, thank you so much for coming on All Thoughts.

Thank you so much for having me here.

So, tell us about Furniture Enterprises of Alaska. What exactly are you doing there?

Yep. We are furniture retailers.

We have 14 stores under six different brand names.

And so we have our stores are uh Sadler's furniture, Williams and K home furnishings which is more design and custom order products.

Saders is midmarket.

We have two Ashley stores that are a licency of them.

We have three mattress firm stores, a Lazy Boy store and a Ultimate Mattress store which is a higherend mattress retailer.

So what we do is we segment the different demographics in the marketplace and then combine the operations back behind it to be able to deliver the furniture at a lower cost than other companies.

And uh tell us a little bit about you mentioned the size of the retail footprint.

Tell us a little bit about the history. How did you get into this?

Are you a native Alaskan? Are you we learned the term sourdough recently. Are you a sourdough? What's the story of you and your company?

Yes, I am a sourdough now. I am 69 years old.

I um grew up in central California in the farming area and it was not the right fit for me.

So, two weeks out of high school, I hitchhiked up here kind of thing by myself and already

that I uh did several different odd jobs.

Um short-term as a commercial fisherman, but we sunk the boat.

Uh that was not good.

I was a janitor and bed maker on the north slope during the building of the pipeline and then I went as a day labor to a furniture company and stayed there ever since.

This is already really fascinating. So, one thing that Joe and I are learning about Alaska in real time is it is incredibly cyclical and sort of you have these boom bust cycles that are tied to what's happening in the oil industry.

So, you mentioned making beds when the pipeline was getting constructed. Is it fair to say that furniture sales follow that boom bust cycle as well?

When there's a lot of activity, lots of people moving to Alaska and building stuff. Do you suddenly see demand for furniture ramp up and then when it kind of goes bust? Do people start selling their I don't know their beds on the corner?

Yes, we definitely have our cycles.

They're not as extreme as that they once were.

The largest of those booms and bust was the building of the pipeline.

And then the first years of the oil revenue for the state that came in and then the state built a lot of infrastructure and those were booming times

and there would be whole subdivisions built on spec and that type of thing as it was growing

and then the oil prices dropped to around $8 a barrel and the construction stopped and the people moved out of the state.

So back in the mid 1980s, Alaskans knew all the terms of your house being underwater and people uh mailing their keys back to the bank and that kind of thing.

And about a third of the homes in Anchorage at that time were walked out on vac vacated by the ownersh.

So that was worst of the bust.

How did the furniture how did you at that point had you already started your furniture operations? Like where were you in your career at that point?

Yes, I was then a half owner of the furniture company that I'd gone to work for and it was just terrible.

I mean, revenues dropped like 70% type of things.

We had 14 banks and savings and loans at that time and half of them were closed by the FDIC or the whatever the savings and loan one is called again at that time.

And so we ended up having to do workouts with the banks and the FDIC and people along that line.

Sorry, before I forget, were you really on a commercial whailing? Oh, sorry. Were you

upstairs?

Yeah. No, no, no. Listeners need no further context.

Does everyone know that Joe is obsessed with Moby Dick and Whailing at this point to the point where you accidentally introduce it into sentences?

Uh, you're on a commercial fishing boat. Did it really crash?

And were there any sort of did that, you know, when is there lessons from business that you could take from the allegory of of going down on a ship?

Yeah, I think it would be to uh it didn't go down uh with us on on it.

It did go down

and I I think it would be to uh interview the uh person leading that uh

I was um I just got up to Alaska. I met another fellow who was the same age I was, but uh we were both just turned 18,

but he had a fishing boat and said that uh I could work on it.

He wouldn't pay me, but I'd get experience.

And we went out and he ended up not knowing what he was doing and we got caught into a storm, heavy seas,

and that boat took on a lot of water and the engines died and we were hailing a Mayday out in the Gulf of Alaska.

And luckily a another ship, a tanker, heard it and said, "Do you want us to call the Kodiak Coast Guard for you?"

We said, "Absolutely, cuz we are sinking."

And they came back and said, "Boys, we got bad news for you. It's too rough.

Oh,

they're not coming.

And they came out and got you.

That tanker did.

Yeah.

The Coast Guard. It was too rough.

Coast Guard couldn't but

Yeah. Couldn't do it.

And so they came out and it took us a little while of the boats bumping together.

They were 550 ft long. We were 42 ft and it slapped together at one time.

They hung a ladder off the edge of that boat and I saw that and I scrambled up to the

Must have been the most satisfied ladder you've seen in your whole life.

Absolutely. We thought we were we thought we were goners,

you know, because you only last half an hour in that cold water.

So, okay. So, no more fishing from fishing to furniture. Yep.

What should people know about furniture sales in Alaska? What are the special considerations versus say furniture sales in the lower 48?

Yeah. The biggest thing that separates us from the lower 48 is the additional freight cost to Alaska.

You know, we're a long ways by road.

We only have the one road, the Alaska Highway, which goes through Canada and up to us and and only heavy equipment really gets shipped over that.

Everything else is shipped to the Port of Seattle and then put onto ships and it takes 3 days for those shipments to arrive to us.

And it's um we pay more for that freight from Seattle to Anchorage than we do from the containers that we bring in from China and Vietnam, Malaysia in those areas. Yeah.

So, explain that more. Intra US shipments are costlier than trans-pacific shipments.

Yes. I just checked because I figured it might come up.

We're paying currently $1,900 China to Seattle of then we have to reload that onto a carrier that can bring it up to here and it's about $9,000 from

Wow.

Seattle to here.

Wow.

Is there a Jones Act? Sorry, but I have to Is there a Jones Act angle to this story?

Jones Act is a part of that for sure.

Wow.

Jones Act everywhere. Can you not get shipments direct from China? Could that happen?

No. There is nowhere near the volume out of the Anchorage area and where the port goes.

There's maybe 650,000 people. We have about 760 in the state, I think.

And so, we just don't have just no economies.

So, I have to imagine that one of the keys to running a successful furniture business in Alaska is you have to be really, really good at shipping and logistics.

And to some extent, it sounds like you're basically running a distribution center for furniture, right?

Is that the thing that you're sort of competing on or is that the area of expertise that you really have to have in order to be successful in this business?

I would say yes. We are good at the merchandising.

We're good at the market segmentation, the advertising.

We're good at everything, but we excel in logistics.

We have a full-time person. We're not that big a company, but a full-time person that puts together those and uh is always negotiating the the rates and trying to make sure that every container is filled to the maximum that can be.

We can't pay for dead air space and containers.

What was 2021 like?

So, you know, we as a podcast first started getting really interested in, you know, shipping and logistics and freight is very important because like everyone else, we didn't think about it much in the 2010s when there was plenty of excess capacity.

And then what was 2021 and 2022 like during those sort of extreme levels of both inflation and uh you know, just bottlenecks in the supply chains.

You know, those were trying times for us, but at least everybody was in that same boat.

Yeah. going to say and we had to put out our orders where we usually try to put them out a few months in advance.

We were having to put them up out up to 8 to 10 months in advance.

And of course the freight rates were coming in.

We had been paying about $1,700 a container transpacific before that.

And I think our peak was around 22,000 for a container.

But the demand was there you know and during that time it's was the biggest boom for the furniture industry that's ever been

because as people in COVID times could not go to the bars and the restaurants.

They weren't traveling and they decided to take that money that they usually spend other places and put it into furniture

and so uh we had to pass on those costs to the consumers of course but it happened and

it worked. At times like that, how does it work in terms of getting inventory?

Because I imagine it's not just Alaskan residents that want a whole bunch of new furniture because they're stuck inside and everyone feels like redecorating their house at that particular moment in time.

People in the lower 48 are doing the exact same thing.

It's probably not enough furniture stock to go around at that particular moment.

How are you actually placing orders? And I guess how does it work in general when you're buying inventory from big brands like a Lazy Boy or like a mattress firm,

right? That's really two different things.

One, if we're talking about during the COVID times, we had to align ourselves and ensure that the people that we're placing the orders with would actually ship them.

And we put a lot of focus into that.

We did narrow down our selection to people that could get it shipped to us finally, even though there was um rolling delays on that at all times.

That that was overburdened type of thing.

But it's different now. It's back closer to how it has been in the past.

And we go to the furniture markets. We go to four of them a year and we select the items.

And then when we bring something into our showrooms, we start the backup process and ordering in what we think demand is going to be.

We do keep those items on our showrooms and then we sell our backstock and we sell into incoming stock.

So we're keeping a close hand on when the arrival dates are going to be so that our sales staff can say this is out of stock right now. It's coming in in three weeks

and we can even book a delivery date from that that point.

So, I didn't realize there are furniture markets, but I guess that makes sense.

So, the idea is these are big like wholesale furniture markets where you have the wholesalers sort of unveiling what they might have available to the retailers every year.

Yes, there's two in High Point, North Carolina, and then two in Las Vegas that we attend.

the ones in High Point where you should find out a little bit about it. It is just a massive

market that's tens of millions of square feet manufacturers displaying the new products.

I want to talk about the contemporary economy a little bit. One angle that strikes me is very furniture relevant is housing.

And due to interest rates, there's a lot of perceived stagnation.

I mean, there is a lot of stagnation in the housing industry in general.

Not a lot of people aren't moving due to mortgage lock in.

There's not a lot of new construction happening right now due to financing costs.

What are you seeing? Like I don't know much about the Alaska housing market, but you know, what are you seeing in the Alaska housing market right now

and I have to imagine whatever is happening feeds into the impulse to buy new furniture or not?

Yeah, unfortunately on in 2015 Alaska the oil prices took a dip

and when that went down then the oil companies laid off their people and a lot of them and since then we've not recovered.

So we are now in the 10 years of a

uh recession in in my opinion

home building in Anchorage has been very slight.

only a 25 to 50 homes a year have been built in the past decade.

And so each one of those is an opportunity for us to furnish. But it's been pretty slow.

We've had a decrease in our population from about 305,000 to about 285,000 maybe somewhere in that uh right now.

Home building in the rest of the state has been slow.

The only place that is happening is in the Matnusa Valley, which is um about 35 mi outside of Anchorage.

Land is less expensive there. There's less municipal regulation and that kind of thing.

So, they're building several hundred homes out there a year and that's our hot spot right now.

Talk more about that. So when you see a particular area of Alaska booming or when you hear that I don't know there's going to be you know some new oil project built in one particular town or city do you immediately start thinking like well maybe we need to open a store over there

do you sort of direct your business to where that oil money is going?

No. It's a good question but no where the oil is developed is on the north slope of Alaska and there is no town there.

It is just the oil camps there.

The closest to that are some uh native villages like Barrow which is now called Up AIC and there's another native village up there

but those are a few hundred people kind of thing. So no no market.

All the infrastructure is through the Anchorage area.

Talk to us about tariffs. What substantively are you seeing on that front?

Tariffs are troubling to me. I lean as a conservative.

I'm not really a I'm not a Democrat nor a Republican. I'm a independent nonpartisan kind of thing.

It's troubling, you know, because um we buy product from China, but now there's all the tariffs that are happening there that can price out that product to the marketplace.

Today I heard that India is doubling from 25 to a 50% and we have now switched over just had recently switched over some of our imports to India

and I was looking at those yesterday and thinking oh those are a couple of good bedroom sets

so planning must be brute I mean setting aside setting aside cost and we'll get to cost just the idea of like any sort of forward planning

it's brutal right now you know if you're the size of a Walmart or you know these uh Home Depot or something, you can probably get the manufacturers to guarantee you prices.

We are way under that level and we just have to take what they are going to add on to it.

But they're into lack of confidence in how things are working out themselves.

They're skittish and so some of them of the manufacturers won't ship if they think that there's going to be a sharp increase in the tariffs because they don't want to ship and then have the people they're shipping to say

not pay it.

Not pay it.

Yeah.

Oh, interesting. Yeah. And what about just in terms of the added price from the tariffs at the moment?

Are you planning to absorb most of that yourself or do you pass it on to customers in a state where you know costs are already pretty high just because it's so remote and everything has to be shipped in?

Right. We're having to look at those and some of them we go hard back onto the manufacturer saying they're going to have to take on a lot of that and they did originally just absorb portions of that and then started adding some back to the uh cost and then we're absorbing some again like retail we were we're takinging the markups where we can but in some of it is too price sensitive and we're just having to eat that for right now and it's too volatile. Um,

yeah. I think I told you, Joe, but I went to there's like a local British import shop

in I think it was in Vermont recently.

Uh, and so they import everything from the UK. It's like, come here to get British candy and British groceries.

And they basically just stopped publishing their prices because the tariffs were changing on an almost daily basis and they were like, you know what, it's too much trouble to try to update all our pricing to take this into account.

So, we're just like not putting them on.

Yeah. say more about cuz this is from the perspective of the Fed.

I mean this is the trillion dollar question about the degree to which tariffs can be passed on to the consumer or not etc.

And I'm just curious like how you think about like pricing in general and how you sense when there's an opportunity to push price a little bit more have the customer defay some of those costs or not like talk just a little bit about what you're seeing on that front.

Our pricing, even though we're pretty remote and everything like that, goes back to national pricing.

And if we get too high in our pricing, then consumers will shop in the lower 48 and pay that additional shipping up to here themselves.

So that's always something we always have to make sure that we're, you know, negating that difference.

Yeah. Do you sense just in terms of like the economic cycle right now like setting aside tariffs, how does end demand feel among consumers in August 2025 than it would have been in August 2024?

Is there any slowdown in any of the segments that you perceive? Are there some segments that are more robust than others?

Yeah, it's softer right now and a large portion of of that softness I do believe goes back to consumer confidence

and whenever the consumer confidence waines and then they push off deferable large ticket purchases and we see that right now.

Well, one of the reasons we wanted to talk to you is because you have, you know, furniture brands that cover a sort of spectrum of consumers.

So, you have higherend versus maybe, you know, more budget items.

Do you see segmentation in consumer demand between you know maybe people who are buying

slightly more modest furniture versus the people who are buying more higherend or custom?

Yes. Right now and with my knowledge of the furniture industry uh nationwide is that of course the higher end is more insulated from that.

And when it gets down to the starting price points that we have for people, let's say that are apartment, you know, dwellers, renters, and stuff like that instead of homeowners. And with the inflation taking a bite out of their incomes, that's where we're seeing it hit us the hardest.

What are you seeing on the labor supply, particularly, I imagine, like movers or people who deliver the furniture or either retail workers in the showrooms, etc. How easy is it to hire right now?

Uh, not easy at all. It's a little bit better now than it was a couple years ago, but it is very difficult.

Why? What What's the What's the constraint?

Well, it's it's there's more jobs available than people.

What?

What are the sectors that are like where are they when you look at like, okay, there's some prospective employee and they could choose to work between you and someone else and you're competing with some other employer. What are these sources of employment demand that you're competing with here in Alaska?

Uh with us, you know, we're a very non-skilled labor force and so we bring in the people.

Preandemic, we were starting people at about $15 an hour for any position.

And now we're at 21 to $25 an hour type of thing and they come into us unskilled and then we have to build the skills with them type of thing.

So we're not looking for people with degrees and education and that kind of thing, just workforce.

And again, they if if they don't like being retail, we need to work weekends.

If they don't want to work a weekend, they can find another job someplace else.

Since Joe brought up constraints on labor, I'm going to ask what's becoming, I guess, a classic question in a lot of these episodes, but what would you say is the biggest constraint on your own business?

Whether it's finding enough workers, whether it's sourcing enough furniture, whether it's shipping costs, maybe it's regulation that's, you know, limiting the amount of homes that can actually be built around Anchorage.

What's the biggest one for you?

The biggest one for us is the uh the decline that we've had in the population.

Mhm.

And and this and it's now rebounding from that, but it's going to be slow or it is slow.

And so it's just the the size of the marketplace.

We have stores in Anchorage, Fairbanks, uh the Kai Peninsula, and the Matnus Valley.

And in between that, it's about 550,000 people in our total market that can drive to one of our stores.

We do sell some to the people of what we call the bush communities where we sell it to them,

but we have to load it into airplanes and that type of thing, and it has to be flown out to them

type of thing. So, it is just the population.

Is there a rate sensitivity aspect of your business either towards your own cost of capital or I have to imagine some of the buying is borrowed or the consumer is borrowing to money to buy the bed etc.

Do you see any sort of clear link between high interest rates right now and how your business operates?

the amount of consumers that are financing the purchase that we do do like the uh financing.

We have that available for them and then we run the promotions where we do 36 months up to uh 60 months without interest that we pay for that interest up front to the U finance company.

But that is still that is slowed way down over the peak that it was pre- pandemic as people are just not they're concerned about getting into too much debt.

Sure. How much of the slowdown in customer demand post pandemic? How much of that has to do with just people bought a lot of stuff in 2122 and maybe you don't need you know another new bed for a while or another new coffee table or something like that

versus actually we are seeing a sort of fundamental structural slowdown in the amount of stuff that people are able to buy.

Yes, I am not smart enough to understand that during the pandemic what we did was made up for past purchases that they didn't make or if they bought into the future.

I really don't know uh the difference and maybe a few years from now some smart people will write something I'll read it and say oh yeah that's it

kind of thing but it had to do it.

Now, furniture when you buy it, like a dining room table, most people are expecting to get 20 25 years out of it unless it splits from uh too much uh moisture left in in the wood

kind of thing. But furniture does last 5 to 25 years. So, it's a very slow cycle.

What would you tell your 18-year-old self about life in Alaska and doing business and a career in Alaska?

That is maybe the most surprising or most interesting or the most important lesson for that trajectory you've had.

All right. So, being kind of personal when I was a teenager and stuff, I had no self-confidence.

Uh that type of thing. I didn't do well in school. I didn't understand why, but I have some learning disabilities and that type of thing.

I got up here, thought I'd be a laborer, that kind of stuff.

So then anyway I got into the furniture business turned out to be pretty good at it

and I run a good business there still is the economies come and go to Alaska and that kind of stuff but the basic of the uh state has never lost its luster for me.

I love living here. Uh I love the mountains. I love the animals.

I mean we have hundreds of bear and thousands of moose that live within the city of Anchorage and you see them and that kind of thing.

I still get all excited about that.

Who's walking down the street while I'm here?

I'm telling you, you that can happen more in the winter time than the summertime, but in the winter time, yeah, you got to break and let them go through walk through Midtown.

And they're big animals, too.

Anyway, I uh Good times, bad times, I'm staying here. Love it.

Have you ever had a furniture delivery disrupted by wild animals?

Not that I can think of.

All right. Well behaved moose, then.

I have just one more question I think which is the other thing that I I think maybe unusual about Alaska is again because it's so remote because it's quite difficult in some respects to get new materials, new items here.

I imagine there must be a lot of competition from the used market.

So if you have a bed, you know, a bed's not a great example.

If you have a couch or a coffee table, you want to buy something new, you're not just going to throw that coffee table away.

you're probably going to try to sell it on Facebook Marketplace or something like that.

Do you feel a lot of competition from the used furniture segment?

It's not that much competition for us except for it is there and it is the Facebook marketplace is

is where it is. So probably some of these items get bought and sold a few times.

But again, that's usually for younger people just getting started and or a temporary.

they're just going to get something to, you know, last maybe six months to a year and then buy better quality furniture once they're established.

So, yes, it is there. It's off our radar for the most part.

All right. Well, Dave, thank you so much for coming on. That was really fun.

Thank you so much, too.

Joe, imagine hitchhiking to Alaska to become a commercial fisherman and then get into the furniture business.

Imagine um getting into the commercial fisherman business, finding someone roughly your age and experience.

You know, it's hard not to be, you know, the mind comes to uh Ishmael and Clequ from the 1851 novel by Herman Melville movie Dick and then um and then your boat crashing and then uh and then uh saving your life, etc.

That's where your mind goes, Joe.

It's hard not for the mind to drift there.

Can I ask if we go on a whale watching tour, am I just going to hear like Captain Ahab references for three hours?

I'm just going to go around to everyone on the boat. I'm gonna say, are you the Ahab, the Ishmael, or the Starbucks?

And I'm just gonna ask and and I'm gonna categorize everyone on the boat.

But no, that was a great like he was a great Alaskan character.

A great Alaskan character. And also, I still think the furniture industry is such an interesting one to kind of look at the economy through.

Yeah, totally.

It's an interesting lens to look at the economy through.

And there were a couple things that I would pick out of that conversation.

So, one just on the tariffs,

yeah,

there's a theme that we've heard over and over again, which is the big guys probably have the pricing power and the relationship power in order to get a lot of their manufacturers to try to absorb some of the tariff costs in a way that the smaller guys do not have.

Well, and to this point, it's really interesting that the manufacturers themselves won't accept certain orders because they're not confident that the economics will make sense at the end and that the customer will just walk away from it.

Which is just a really interesting dynamic. He's like, "No, like you could just imagine like no, I swear I'll pay, right? I swear I'm going to pay. I'm good for it."

And that adds another and then this gets to like the idea of not just tariff level, but tariff volatility.

Just like you wake up one day and the tariffs double in India and then you're like rethinking your planning.

Exactly. And I I suspect you know like the longer the tariff uncertainty persist like the more behavior like that you're going to see where people are just like I don't know if we want to strike this contract at all.

There's like two levels here, right? Because tariffs mechanically raise the cost of doing business.

But then on a more sort of abstract level it's just business gets more costly in this environment.

And you know you always hear oh people hate uncertainty etc.

And sometimes there's just this cliche that people say because whatever, but here it's like extremely extremely concrete.

The other thing that was really interesting to me, and again, this is a sort of broad theme that comes up quite often on the show, but this idea of

if you're a homeowner in the current environment, you kind of you have it made, right?

I mean, I guess depending on what your mortgage rate is, but if you bought before rates went up, you have a lot of excess purchasing power with which to buy new furniture for your home.

versus, for instance, if you're a renter and you're paying those higher rents, you don't have that cushion from like prepandemic rates.

And so, it feels like there's still this issue of halves and have nots in the housing market that still feeds into something like furniture sales, too.

I also think like uh the economics of population decline are just really interesting because right small population that's very hard to reverse because and we we've talked about this in other areas which is that you have some capital stock right like

you have a 100 houses okay and then you have people move away those houses don't just stay there they deteriorate over time you don't you lose that capital stock

and so like how do you like reverse

especially in Alaska if you're not doing upkeep

yeah that's right and I mean we didn't get into this but like that is just like a sort of like problem of like the sort of negative.

It's very hard to reverse the sort of decline in any business or any industry because of just sort of the constriction in supply side capacity that occurs from structural decline.

It's also just broadly amazing how big a deal the 2013 2015 oil bust actually was.

And I guess you know we were covering the oil market at that time and so we wrote a lot of stories about you know

the feed through into the bond market and stuff like that

but a place like Alaska is really feeling it in a very real way and still right like almost a decade later or a decade later I should say kind of amazing.

Yeah.

All right. Shall we leave it there?

Let's leave it there.

This has been another episode of the thoughts podcast. I'm Tracy Aloway.

You can follow me at Tracy Aloway

and I'm Joe Weisenthal. You can follow me at the stalwart.

Follow our producers Kerman Rodriguez at Kerman Arman, Dashelobel Bennett at Dashbot, and Kaleb Brooks at Kalebrooks.

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