Good morning everybody. Welcome back to another episode of the market open. It is Monday, October 27th. We are live. It is the first market open coming to everybody from someone who is now officially 28 years old. It's actually the day that you all have been wishing happy birthday for for the past 364 days. Today is actually the day for us to have my birthday.

You know, it's so funny that this thing became a meme. It's like I don't even know how it became a meme of just wishing someone happy birthday, but it came it became a meme to such an extent that Tom Lee thought it was my birthday back in August because a bunch of you guys said it and I don't know if he's going to see my actual birthday today and what he's going to say, but there we go. We're live and officially 28 years old today. Thank everybody for being here.

We got a lot to talk about, a lot to get into. We got this China US trade update which obviously is very important for the markets and you can see right now in the pre-markets we are greeny green. It's the best birthday gift I guess you could ask and all-time high across the market. Maybe Palantir push for 190 today which would be very nice. We got a bunch of different macro updates that seem to be pretty bullish in regards to rate cuts coming up. Uh labor market data and a few other things that seem to be at least helping the way we have some of this pre-market momentum which is also really important.

Uh and then we have earnings. We have a couple of earnings in the pre-market that are pretty important to talk about. We'll talk about some earnings after the close as well. But tomorrow we got SoFi, PayPal, and UNH in the morning. And then after that, you've got Amazon, Apple on Thursday, Microsoft, Google, and Meta on Wednesday along with rate cuts on Wednesday. The FOMC decision. There's a 96.7% chance we're going to get a rate cut. So, it is just going to be a wild, wild week.

Uh it's a week for everyone to lock in. This is a week where, you know, portfolios can really take some massive swings hopefully to the upside. At least right now, we're experiencing to the upside. I mean, I think the majority of people here probably are recovering anything they lost over the past couple weeks in the pre-markets alone, potentially even even hitting new all-time highs in the portfolio. So, very very very exciting stuff. We got a lot to get into, a lot to get going, and I am excited to be here uh for another day to to talk to everybody. Yes, we have Amcore earnings after the bell as well. So, we'll get into all that and uh we'll see all the other earnings we have later today.

Again, thank you everybody for the happy birthday wishes. I guess I'll just take like a couple minutes right here and just say something and then we'll get into we'll get into the market open. First of all, I I just um I'll get to all the super chats at the end as well so we can just do them all at once at at the end of the show and um I can individually thank everybody. But look, I am very, very very grateful to be in the position I'm in.

I think as you get older, you start reflecting a little bit more on your life. This book about Karp is coming out. I read this entire book over the weekend and uh you know, it's about his life. It's an autobiography on Karp. And so as I was reading this book on someone who has fundamentally changed my life, much less changed so many of our lives and you know one of the reasons I'm even here today is because I I I chose to take a chance on analyzing his company. It really made me reflective about my life and just thinking about what has happened over the past 28 years.

Um and more than anything I thought about what has happened over the past four years which is you know this entire community being built. I think I think one of the most intrinsic elements, the most objectively intrinsic things that we can all agree on as a species is that all of us need community. You know, whether you're Democrat, Republican, no matter what race, gender, it's like at the end of the day, you need a community for some level of meaningful happiness.

It's really hard to just be individualistic your entire life and only care about yourself. uh because because all the gains of life, whether it's through through professional success, financial success, it's hard to celebrate it if there's no emotional gains. And a lot of those emotional gains come from celebrating your wins with a community.

And so, uh I I I just think one of the things I'm the most proud of over the past 28 years that I've been able to do is is somehow develop a skill set that would be necessary to cultivate a community and then over the past four years have the work ethic to to build this community to be where it is today. And I would not be here, if I don't say this enough, I would not be here without you guys. I would not be here every morning. I would not be able to be in this position. I would not get the opportunities I get to to be invited to these events from all these uh you know, companies that that want to talk to me.

I would not be able to be invited to go do podcasts with all these CEOs unless there was there was an audience that cared. And the fact that you guys cared and the fact that you guys have been so happy about my journey over the past four years, I mean, it's it's it's it's I don't even know what to say. It is it is the journey of a lifetime.

And on a day like today, as you get older, you start to get really really grateful over the things that you've done in your life. And you really want to make sure that you let people know how grateful you are because time is fleeting. We don't know how much time we have on this planet. That's the uh that's the what is it? That's the paradox of getting older. It's like you're celebrating life, but at the same time, you are getting closer to the end of life if we're just, you know, being objective about it.

And so I think in these moments it's really really important to just let people know how much you care about the journey that you've been on and and how much you appreciate the support that they've had on that journey. Even if they've not been on every part of that journey and even if they've not been affected by every part of the journey, the fact that they've been part of it is it it just means the world and there's there's really uh there there's really not many words to describe that.

So there we go. Thank you everybody. Appreciate it. If it's your birthday as well today, happy birthday to you as well. I think I see a couple other people that say it's their birthday. So, pretty incredible. 77s says I'm 38 today. I love it. 2838, we're here. We're alive.

Thank you all for the super chats. I'll read them towards the end of the show so we can get through everything. But once again, deeply, deeply, deeply, deeply, deeply appreciate from the bottom of my heart all of you guys allow me to live my dream every single day. Man's talking like he's 70 years old. Are you dying of it? No, I'm not. But just like look, I I really do want to make sure people understand how grateful I am. This is a very privileged position to be in this situation.

Uh and and I know I've worked my ass off to get here, but no matter how hard you work, you still you need a little bit of of luck on your side in terms of, you know, you need people to laugh at your jokes, and you guys laugh. You guys really do laugh. I mean, there's a lot of people on YouTube that try to go live and get people to laugh at their jokes, and no one cares, and you guys care. Now, one would argue you're laughing at me, not with me. But the point is, as long as there's a laugh, it really doesn't matter.

And so, the fact that you guys choose to laugh and choose to be here, it means a lot. It really, really, really means a lot. And I wish I could thank each of you in person one day. So, so, you know, we're getting closer to 2026. I'm going to have more details on the meetups. Hopefully, a lot of people can come to those meetups. And, uh, I can individually thank every single person in person for for being part of this community. I mean, this community is is is the reason why I'm I'm happy to be doing what I'm doing. I mean, I am happy to be alive on a daily basis because I get to do this. And the fact that this could bring any level of happiness to the people that are part of what we're doing every day, it just means the world. It really truly it it means everything to me.

All right, let's get started. Thank you everybody for being here. Let's get into it. What do we got going on? Well, we're green. We are greeny green and we are even more green than where we were last night. We had 68205. We're at 68272. Tesla's up 1%. Palantir's up 2%. Hoodie is up 3.1% potentially making its way back to 150. Grab back above $6. Google 264.

Google signed a big deal with Anthropic. It was confirmed over the weekend. Massive level of TPUs are going to be or going to be purchased by Anthropic. So, that's really helping Google price right now. Reddit's up 3%. Amazon, shout out to everyone who bought Amazon with me. 213, 215, 217, even 222. I mean literally there like it's just been a great opportunity over the past couple weeks and you got Amazon moving higher 228. Hopefully we can crack that 230 level before we get into earnings.

Uh Nvidia back to 190. Very nice to see. Palantir 189. Maybe Palantir and Nvidia are going to be twins today. You got Palantir right there. 189.04. Micro strategy is up. ASML is up. Him's back above 50. Roblox is up. Crowd Strike is up. Coinbase is up. Coreweave is up. Rocket Lab is up. Nebius is up. Look at that. 121.95 on Nebius. Iren is up.

I mean, it's just a massive, massive day, which to be honest, look, is very green for a variety of reasons. Could I see a little bit of a sell-off, a little bit of people taking some profits? Of course, we're already seeing that. Some of these pre-market prices are lower than where they were last night. So, I don't think that should scare anyone if we see that. But the trend is on the right side, and we're going to spend a lot of time today talking about the trend from a macro perspective and geopolitical perspective, and ultimately the conclusion on where I think this market can go over the next coming months if we continue this trend.

SoFi, I did buy another 500 shares on Friday. I didn't go live on the market close. Um, honestly, I just I just really wasn't feeling the best in the market close. And that that was another thing I forgot to mention. Like I I I posted I I wasn't going to go live on the market close. And the amount of comments underneath that post that uh you know just said, "Dude, we love you, but you are part of our schedule and uh we hope you get better because you know, missing the market close is something that actually affects our lives because we you know, we we we want to have that part of our life." I mean, that means a lot.

Now, there were a lot of other comments suggesting that my throat was hurting because I was on a grinder date. And that's that's that's for another conversation. Those were those were those were about 20% of the comments. But the other 80% of comments, which is very very nice, and it was very very humbling to uh to know that I really wish I want I could go live. I just I felt horrible, dude. I don't know what was happening on Friday, but I felt if I couldn't give my full 100% then it wasn't worth going live.

But um look, I bought another 500 shares of SoFi on Friday. I I I couldn't say anything because I didn't go live, so I couldn't announce it. But $30.10, my average is now $29.5. I mean, let's see if Noto can give us that 35 level. Have a,000 shares. And we're going to see tomorrow morning what happens with SoFi and if uh if we can keep going from there.

New Bank is up, Door Dash is up, Delta's up, JD is up, Oklo is up, you've got Anduril that is up. Big Bear AI that is up. A lot of the momentum stocks that took a bit a big a bit of a draw down over the past couple weeks, those are starting to recover a bit. So, it's pretty much an everything rally. AMD 259. It is pretty much an everything rally. The only thing that's down is gold, which is actually bullish because you don't want a risk-off asset rallying while the market's rallying because it tends to be a little wonky.

Now, granted, gold is down a couple percentage points after being up 60% for the year. But it does signal maybe there's a little bit more risk on versus risk off. And I know gold is conventionally seen as risk-off, but maybe after the 60% rally this year, gold is now risk. But you are seeing a little bit of weakness in some of the commodity trades which potentially is good for the equity markets as more of that money maybe transitions into taking more risk. More risk means more of these risk assets that we all own like tech stocks tend to do a little bit better which is very exciting to see.

Rare earths are down today and the reason rare earths are down is because it does look like based on what Trump said and we have a couple clips to watch uh that they are getting to an agreement on rare earth metals and minerals which means the demand for the domestic suppliers of those rare earth stocks. I mean that demand is still going to be there. It's just not going to be potentially at the level that it was three weeks ago when we thought that China and the US were decoupling. And so that's why those stocks are down. I can see them recovering. I don't know if they get back to all-time highs anytime soon, but nonetheless, uh, it is good for the broader American supply chain if we have China supplying rare earths. And, you know, that's good for the broader equity markets as well.

So, yeah, not so rare earths on a day like I mean, you know, they were rallying because we thought we were not going to be friends with China anymore. If we're going to be friends with China, which it seems like we are, then they probably wouldn't rally. But outside of that, you got a lot of other risk on assets that are just getting momentum and it is very, very exciting.

See, Lululemon is up. Is that actually up? Lululemon. Wow. Lulu's up 5%. I mean, dude, it's going to be hard to find unless we get a bit of a selloff today. It's going to be hard to I mean, this is a broad-based market rally. We're getting into the end of the year. Let's get into some of the reason for why we are seeing this broad-based rally. But I'd be very curious to see if we actually end the day red or green and if we can hold on to this momentum and what stock lose a little bit of steam.

I mean, I think it's going to be a green day. I I I could see a little bit of a sell-off towards the middle of the day, maybe taking some profits from the all-time highs, but I I don't think this is enough momentum to the downside given how many of the narrative catalysts have started to come in the direction of the bulls and if those continues, you know, we probably continue to get a bit more a bit more green.

All right, so let's get Lulu partnered with the NFL. Really? Okay. Well, there you go. Lulu and the NFL. I guess that's enough to pump up the stock. So, I mean, they definitely needed something different. Yeah. Lulu is partnering with the NFL to launch an apparel collection for all 32 NFL teams, huh? Okay. I mean, the NFL is hot right now. You got advertising on the NFL reaching all-time highs. You have the prediction markets being massive for the NFL. So, looks like Lulu is tapping into some of that mind share, and that should be helping them as well.

All right, so let's get into a bunch of the talks we have. First of all, what's going on with China? We got a lot of quotes by Bessent over the weekend and a lot of this stuff is pretty bullish. Here is what he said and here is why the markets are rallying based off his comments in regards to China.

This was the fifth meeting that I've had with my Chinese counterpart, the vice premier He Lifeng and we covered a wide range of issues and I think we've reached a substantial framework for the two leaders who will meet in Korea next Thursday. So uh you know on the on the table the president had given me maximum leverage when he threatened 100% tariffs if the Chinese impose their rare earth uh global export controls. So I think we have averted that. So the the tariffs will be averted and we have a regular meeting regular quarterly meeting uh with the Chinese. uh it was scheduled for November 10th or before November 10th. I don't think we will have to have that. So uh we have been rolling the tariffs quarterly. So we agreed on that. We also agreed on substantial agriculture purchases for US farmers. We agreed that the Chinese would begin to help us uh with the precursor chemicals for this terrible fentanyl epidemic that's ravaging our country. So I would say that it was a very good meeting overall.

So I mean you're hearing it right there from Bessent and then not only did Bessent say that the Chinese embassy and the US this is what they said yesterday. Uh both sides agree that the strategic guidance of the two heads of state they will make full use of the Chinese US economic trading consultation mechanism maintain close communication on respective concerns and promote the healthy sustainable development of economic and trade relations to benefit the two peoples and contribute to global prosperity. So, I mean, you've got the Chinese basically agreeing with Bessent right there that we are going to be uh working with the US to actually make a deal happen.

And then you've got Trump confirming that uh negotiations are going so well or at least initial talks are going so well that he's going to be meeting Xi pretty soon either in China or in the US.

We pretty much agreed that I'll be going to China. When is that? In the earlier part of the year. Okay. and President Xi will be coming into maybe Washington or Palm Beach or someplace sometime after that.

So if the reason we had a 3% draw down on October 10th was because of the China tweet around the United States basically saying hey China's being aggressive with rare earths and we're not going to buy their soybeans yada yada and now that reason seems to be all but not as relevant. It doesn't mean we have a deal yet but it does mean it looks like we have a framework for a deal that will result in something friendly. I mean, Trump's literally inviting Xi to the White House. I really I don't know, maybe I'm being naive about it, but on November 1st or October 30th when they meet in South Korea, uh Trump is on his way back from Malaysia as we speak. I think he's he's actually went to Japan last night, so he should be coming back to the US in in a couple days.

Um it's hard for me to believe that after all these productive conversations that Bessent has had that they're going to end up with no deal, especially towards the end of the year. Trump knows the midterms are coming up. Trump knows this is the end of his first year as being president. I mean you want to get some landmark legislation. Obviously big beautiful bill was the the most important thing but the next big thing is locking in these trade deals with China, India etc. We already have Japan, South Korea, Europe. If we can lock it in with the major nations, I mean not only would the markets like it, but that could also be very productive for the broader health of the economy. And given we are running up a a deficit, we do need the trade deals to contribute to GDP growth.

So I don't know, dude. It feels like we're going to have some fun towards the end of the year. November tends to be one of the best months of the year as well. Uh so now you've got the trade deal catalyst, you've got the broader earnings catalyst that we'll talk about in a second. And then you've got November being better than expected.

I mean, and then you got the rate cuts coming up where, you know, there is a lot of money on the sidelines at the end of the day. As that money gets to the sidelines, uh you know, it's going to have more of an incentive to potentially get off the sidelines if we continue to get rate cuts. Seems like there's a shot. Seems like there's a shot. We could have a really, really strong end of year. And it looks like that could be what's playing out right now. So, that's what we have in the context of the China updates and doesn't look like that's slowing down at all.

Thank you again for all the happy birthday wishes. Deeply, deeply appreciate everyone for the wishes. Your boy is now 28 and uh we're going to keep working. We're going to keep working every single day as usual. All right, so that's what we had for China. Let's get into some of the other stuff we got going on. First of all, Palantir, uh, there was rumors over the weekend that Palantir was going to be signing a letter of intent with Poland. It officially is confirmed.

Palantir just tweeted, "We are committed to Poland and proud to deepen our partnership with the Ministry of Defense. Today's agreement paves the way for Palantir's AI enabled defense technology to begin rapidly supporting the country's armed forces as they innovate at the forefront of an increasingly complex threat environment and strengthen Poland's position as a sovereign leader in defense."

Technological collaboration between Palantir, the Polish armed forces, the Polish defend industry, and the rapidly growing Polish defense startup ecosystem will make Poland a pioneer and leader in AI for defense. Uh, I think this is really exciting because last week you had a $200 million contract with Lumen, which is another commercial government provider. Palantir, you know, really inching a multi-year partnership.

The the CEO of Lumen was on Fox Business and said, "Alex came into our room and said, "Don't pay us until we can show you the value." and he showed us the value and that's why we're now paying him hundreds of millions of dollars for the company software and it looks like Palantir is taking that same approach which is the value is downstream from actually showing the impact of the software and they've probably shown their software over the past couple of months to Poland and now Poland's Ministry of Defense wants to take a more productive approach working with Palantir makes sense.

I mean at at the end of the day with everything going on in Russia Ukraine a lot of the Baltic states obviously want to take more precautionary measures has worked with many of them including Lithuania And it looks like they now have an official partnership with Poland. I mean, look, the stock is about 80 cents away from an all-time high. I think there's a world where we can crack it. We're going to see at 9:30 when the market opens if it ends up getting dumped and or if there's a bit of resistance right there.

But yeah, for all the people that are Polish in the chat, I see a bunch of people that are from Poland. It looks like Palantir might be potentially uh powering the entire operating system for the Ministry of Defense. So very very exciting for Palantir and it looks like that is another good deal.

Uh Robin Hood, we got an upgrade on Robin Hood 161 for Hoodie. Uh and the reason we got 161 is because of earnings updates. So you've got Compass Point. They raised their price target from 105 to 161.

And here's what they said. Our 3Q EBITDA forecast is 6% above the street and we expect Hood to disclose October trends pacing well above fourth quarter expectations. If we annualize our forecast, transaction revenue is only 2% below consensus for 2026. Fourth quarter offers additional upside quarter over quarter alongside higher prediction market volumes, crypto fee pricing, and staking revenue. Staking is one of those things that's not really baked into a lot of analysts assumptions yet.

While Hood trades at a premium of 62x or 2026 EPS and 43x EBITDA, we're comfortable with our buy rating as long as revenue EBIDA continue to exceed expectations. We increase our price target to 161. Our 2026 EPS is 7% above the street with a meaningful room for upside if recent trends persist. Very nice to see that you're getting another price target from Robin Hood, especially going into 2026.

One of the concerns I think a lot of people have with Hood is that if we do end up in a crypto winter, if we end up in a little bit more of not a bearish market, but a lack of volatile market to the upside, Hood's transaction volumes won't be as strong. Bitcoin right there 115,000, Ethereum above 4,100. If that doesn't happen in 2026, and I'm sure we're going to have some draw downs in 2026 of 10% 15% that just tends to happen every single year. But if the broader trend is intact and you know maybe we end out the year 7,000 maybe we are much closer to 8,000 by 2026 then Robinhood's probably going to be a pivotal player and those prediction markets are also probably going to be very very important for the company to continue to do well.

So you're getting some excitement right there from uh or excitement right there from Robin Hood and that's also leading to some of that pre-market action. I mean look if we see 150 it would be very exciting. I do think this 150 run would be a bit more healthier and it's not just for Robin Hood. I think a lot of these stocks, including a Nebius that took a nasty hit from 140 all the way down to 96, Robin Hood from 150 all the way down to 120, the fact that they're now gapping back up even though they're not fully at all time highs is very healthy because the market got a lot of the froth out of the system.

So, you got a lot of the sellers to leave, which is good. Uh, and then number two, uh, you have earnings coming up. So, if Nebus and Hood can crush earnings, which I think they will, they are not starting at all-time highs in terms of making a move higher. They are starting at levels that are depressed from all-time highs, which actually makes it easier to get to new all-time highs. It just just, you know, historically when you look at the market, you need to have a little bit of pain before you have some gain.

So, I think across the entire board, it's it's a much healthier way to get into into the earning season. And obviously, those who took advantage of the dip have also benefited from that as well. So, very nice to see what's going on in the context of some of those growth stocks as well.

All right, so that's what you had on Robin Hood. And now let's transition over to a couple of other updates we have right here in the context of crypto. So first of all Bitmine uh Tom Lee bought the dip didn't buy as much as a lot of people expected but he did buy 3.31 million. They bought about 73,000 Ethereum or 77,000 Ethereum over the weekend.

He says the progress and trade talks between the US and China is positive for Ethereum and crypto broadly. These are global assets and rising tensions triggered the largest ever deleveraging crypto event over a few weeks ago. While the fundamentals of Ethereum and crypto are uncorrelated to equities, Fundstrat work has shown that in the past 15 years, Ethereum and crypto perform better when equities rise. Meaning crypto is correlated to risk on assets via the associated leverage channel.

So you've got Bitmine that now owns 2.8% of the entire asset class when it comes to Ethereum. Bitmine right there at 53.10. That's up 5.3%. I mean Ethereum finally breaking above 4,000. It was stuck at 3700 to 3,900 basically for the past 2 weeks. The question now is if this bad boy can gap up to 5,000 towards the end of November. And I'm optimistic that it can. I don't know if we have that 10,000 level baked into it.

By the way, Bitcoin uh if it just closes at this level, we will have October continue to be intact, which is essentially a um as you can see right here, description of how many times we've had a green October. Last eight Octobers were green. So, if we can continue, even if we entered up by 1.2%. It would be nice.

Why do you think Bitmine didn't buy more? ETH was under 4K for a week. Yeah, I'm not fully sure. I mean, maybe they were just being a little bit more hesitant because they thought if the China trade negotiations didn't go that well that Ethereum would tank to like 3,200 and that's where they could get a better price, which is a fair risk-reward assessment to make. It's like, hey, maybe, you know, maybe the China stuff is more of a um headwind and we need to be cautious. And so they bought as much as they could but not enough to the point where they would essentially spend all the cash that they had which I think is fair to do.

But uh you do have a lot of these treasuries continuing to buy more. I mean even Micro Strategy today, Micro Strategy bought more. It has been a while since they bought as much as they did but 390 Bitcoin 43.4 million is what Mr. Sailor purchased today. 111,000 per Bitcoin and uh now their average is 74,000.

So you have the best companies that are able to continue diluting at a premium continuing to buy as much Bitcoin as they have which is very exciting for the crypto ecosystem as well.

All right, some other clips in regards to some of the things that Trump has said. First of all, uh, Trump and Elon, he actually gave some comments this morning about Elon Musk.

How is your relationship with Elon these days? I think it's good. I mean, you saw that during Charlie's beautiful tribute, Elon came up. It's good with Elon. I like Elon. I've always liked Elon. Elon's good. Have you talked to him since the memorial? Uh, on and off a little bit. Yeah. Very little. Nothing much. Look, he's a nice guy and he's a very capable guy. Uh, I've always liked him. He had a bad spell. He had a bad period. He had a bad moment. It was a stupid moment in his life. very stupid. I'm sure I'm sure he'd tell you that. But uh I like Elon and I suspect I'll always like him.

I mean, look, that's good to see if you're a Tesla shareholder because at the end of the day, we can't forget Tesla still needs legislation over the next four years that's going to be conducive to what they're doing with self-driving and probably also conducive to what they're going to be doing with robotics. So you need some level of meaningful uh cooperation from the administration and the fact that Elon and Trump potentially are uh recovering from some of the strains in the relationship. That is also not the worst thing to see. Tesla stock right there up about 1% in the in the pre-markets as well.

Um so good to see that in the context of Tesla. We have some other updates right here that also are potentially implicating what we've got with Trump. Japan's new prime minister, one of the first female prime ministers of the country, is considering buying around a 100 Ford F-150s for government use as a goodwill move before Trump's visit, which Trump was visiting last night. Trump praised the plan aboard Air Force One, calling the F-150 a hot truck and saying that the PM has good taste.

So, you're already getting some more of these global leaders saying, "Hey, let's find a way to warm up to Trump and let's uh do something that can create the negotiations in a meaningful way." I mean, you saw what happened with Canada over the weekend. Obviously, the some of them stopped playing the ad and uh you know, Canada essentially Trump said, "We're going to increase the tariffs by 10% on Saturday." Market kind of didn't care too much about that. They cared more about the China stuff, but Bessent commented on China and or commented on Canada and basically said they were really stupid to do what they did.

And he got Canada kind of capitulating to the opposite direction by saying, "All right, it looks like we're going to have to negotiate here." a major trade issue which is Canada. Of course, this week, President Trump abruptly broke off trade talks with uh Canada and put another 10% tariff on Canada in response to an ad that the government of Ontario ran. It features former President Ronald Reagan. Why is the president setting trade policy based on a television ad he doesn't like?

Uh well, Kristen, let's let's think about this. This this is a kind of propaganda against US citizens. You know, it it's it's psyops. Why why would the government of Ontario, I'm told, that they've spent they have spent or were planning to spend up to $75 million on these ads that come across the US border. So what what was the purpose of that other other than to sway public opinion and you know it's some kind of propaganda that the premier of Ontario unilaterally launched.

Will will the 10% tariffs apply to all Canadian goods? Mr. Secretary, uh Kristen, I I've been traveling since this unfortunate event happened. I know that the ad's been taken down. So, you know, we we'll have to see, but I I just think it was ter terrible, terrible judgment by by this premier, you know, who has a bit of a reputation for being a hothead. Does the president know if the tariffs will apply to 10% tariffs will apply to all Canadian goods? Has he made a determination about that? Well, uh, well, I I'm sure he I'm sure he knows and I'm sure the ambassador Greer, uh, knows, but again, you know, we're we're here out in Asia and we're doing these big trade deals out in Asia that we just signed the Malaysian deal today, which was fantastic. And, you know, I've been spending the past two days negotiating with the Chinese. So you know what's whatever is going on back in North America I think is the taking second fiddle to President Trump's leadership out here in the Pacific.

So the markets didn't care too much about that Canada 10% tariff. I imagine Trump will either get rid of it or use it as a form of leverage and negotiation. But the one thing I will say on this and and this is what I said kind of on Friday. Um, I don't think we've ever seen a president of the United States use the leverage of being the president of the United States like we've seen Trump use it. And and whether you like it or hate it is a different question, but I don't think any diplomatic uh consultant would say in the middle of the night you should tweet that you're putting a 10% tariff on Canada and that all trade negotiations are officially terminated based on seeing an advertisement.

Right? You know, most diplomatic consultants would tell you, "Hey, that's not the right way to approach it." Trump has just not cared. He's not cared whether it's China, Canada, South Korea, whatever he's going to say, he's just going to publicly say it to the people. He's not going to go through an intermediary or a middleman. He's just going to directly post it. Everyone's going to consume it. The world's going to react. It's going to be chaotic. And then from that chaos, there is potentially some bright side uh or bright line when you get to the other side.

And so far, in some instances, it has not worked, but in other instances, it has worked because you just go so direct and you cut through all the BS and you use the leverage of saying, "Oh, we're the United States. If you're not going to export rare earths to us, then we don't want to do business with you at all. If you're going to run these commercials that, in the words of Ascent, operate as a psyop, then we are done talking to you." And like the other side, because they need the US because we are the large consumer of everything ends up having to capitulate at least to an extent. And if it doesn't fully solve the issue, it maybe gets you closer to a deal.

Whether you like the tactic or not, it is a tactic that I don't think any other president in the history of America has used to the extent that Trump has used it. And the question is just, you know, is that going to be a tactic that fully works over the long term? We're going to see, but so far you are getting some effects based on how I guess chaotic the diplomacy is. And potentially those effects are more positive than not.

macro. Let's talk about some of the macro. Here's what we got. So, after next week, seasonality starts to look really bad for the bears. This is the S&P 500 index based on a seasonal uh perspective. And as you're seeing right there, this is when it's a little choppy. Around that October to early November time after next week, aka towards the next week or to towards the first week of November, you start to get some upside. You start to get a lot more upside. and that upside tends to be uh a bit more aggressive.

So, I mean, if you are a bear going into November and December, you've got I mean, first of all, if you've been a bear all year, you've had like one option to to to kind of to to to capitalize on the bearishness if you had shorts or anything like that. And that was April. And that was a very short-term moment that you had to be able to capitalize on it. Uh because then it ended up being about the dip. And you had some dips in between that. The the biggest was the 3% draw down on October 10th. And now that that's kind of been recovered, you got to really ask yourself where are those opportunities coming? And it doesn't look like it's going to come in November, December.

Unless something really bad happens in the macro, labor market, Trump trade deals, etc. Rate cuts are probably not going to play a factor into that. Maybe earnings really disappoint, but it seems like so far earnings have been pretty good. So what is the bare case going into the last two months of the year? Government shutdown potentially is a tailwind when we reopen, but even if we continue to be shut down, the markets have not seemed to care.

So, it does look like there is some real strong positive momentum going in towards the end of the year and you know that might not be easily slowing down. On top of that, take a look at this. The NASDAQ is on track to be up seven months in a row. And if you look at this chart, when the NASDAQ is up at least seven months in a row, on average, one year later, stock market's up 13%. 100% of the time.

So when you have that consecutive run of tech stocks the way that the NASDAQ is running, it does signal that it likely means we are going higher over the long term and if the earnings picture continues to be as strong as it's been, it looks like that doesn't have to slow down.

On top of that, I showed this chart last week, but important to serve as a reminder, the cash level for the average institutional investor, this was based on a Bank of America survey of fund managers, is at 3.8%. you have a significant level of fund managers reducing their cash balance, which one could say is a little toppy because that means there's not that much cash on sidelines. Another person can say, well, a lot of that money is being deployed and a lot of the fund managers that are chasing performance because they haven't performed this year because they weren't effectively buying the dip on certain levels.

I mean, if you're a fund manager and you miss the dip in April and then you miss the dip again on October 10th, I mean, you really got to be annoyed at yourself and you probably have no choice but to either stay in cash and just accept that you're going to underperform the market this year, which then begs the question, why do you even manage funds in the first place? And that's a existential question for a lot of these fund managers because literally their, you know, business, their livelihood depends on it. Or do you chase? And if you have to chase, then that just creates a melt-up.

And this melt-up is now aided with rate cuts, which again continues to to add more value to the bullcase. Unless you think there's another dip coming, which maybe there is, but if we just had a draw down, maybe you don't need to have another uh another 3% draw down.

And I think that's that's kind of what I wrote up last night as well. I mean, we are cutting rates into a market that's at all-time highs and putting up double digit earnings growth. So, we just had a 3% draw down. The reason for that draw down was because of China. That seems to be going away. More geopolitical peace around the world is a tailwind. Potential ceasefire with Russia Ukraine could be a tailwind. Earnings have been incredible so far. We got a lot of earnings coming up this week that hopefully continues it.

AI capex not slowing down. Big tech companies producing monster numbers only reinforces why they're spending so much on capex. You still have seven and a half trillion dollars on the sidelines. Not all of it's going to come into the equity markets, but even if a couple hundred billion, remember the money market funds on average for the past 15 years have had three trillion on the sidelines. COVID is what created that extra four trillion that was added to it. We don't need to have that four trillion come out, but if you have a couple hundred billion come out, that's still a massive tailwind for the broader economy.

Government reopening will be good. And then Nvidia might have a internal tailwind by being able to sell to China soon if that is negotiated from this trade deal, which is a massive bullcase for all the semiconductor names because if Nvidia is able to sell more GPUs, Micron, SMCI, they will get more business.

And so there's things to be concerned about like the labor market. There's definitely issues out there in the economy that we can't ignore, but the broader trend just seems to be more bullish than not. And that is that is very exciting to see as we head into the end of the year.

All right, here we go folks. It is Monday, October 27th, 9:30 a.m. Thank you everybody for being here. The first market open as a 28-year-old man. Appreciate you all from the bottom of my heart for being here. The stock market is now open.

All right, wake your ass up. Let's get into it. Here we go. Nvidia 189.95 190 up about 2% on the day. Again, this one was at 195 at the all-time highs. 190 right there for Nvidia. Robin Hood 141. That's up 3% on the day. Palantir. Oh boy, we are very close to breaking 190. That would be an all-time high. 188.04. Got a little bit of rejection right there at 189. If it can break through 190, then we would be seeing that all-time high.

Nvidia again up 2%. Tesla's up 1%. S&P 500 682 682.85 that is green on the day. AMD right there 255 that's up. We do have some red candles right at the open which is normal kind of what I think most of us expected because we were really flaming hot in the pre-markets. Now we got to see if people come in and buy those dips. But as you can see right there AMD from 258 to 255. That's red. From grab to 6.02 to 5.96. That's red. SoFi just lost 30. You're seeing it kind of across the board. But I think that's okay as you're starting to get some momentum and buyers come in.

Wow. Palantir. 190. There she is. 190. Oh, she's going for 191. She is going for 191 right here. That is a new all-time high on Palantir, ladies and gentlemen. That is a new all-time high on Palantir. 190.5. Honestly, the best birthday gift I could ask for. There you go. 191. There she is. 191.

You got earnings coming up in about a week. 3.3% on the day. Congratulations to everyone on Palantir. That is absolutely incredible. Amazon 228. PayPal's up 1.5. Salesforce up a little bit. Meta 754. Meta was at 690 for the majority of the past couple weeks. Meta now here back at 750. The Googs 265. It hit 267 this morning. Hims is up 1%. Uber's up 1%. Roblox up 1.2. Crowd strikes up half a percent. Rocket Lab up 1.4. CoreWeave up 1.49.

that built its empire on smartphones. So they're launching new data center AI chips starting in 2026. And they also just announced their first major customer. That would be Saudi backed AI startup Humane targeting roughly 200 megawatts of capacity starting in 2026.

So they're not essentially going after AI training. That's the market that made Nvidia worth over $4 trillion. Qualcomm is targeting inference. That's running AI models, not necessarily building them. So every time you use chat GPT or generate an AI image, that's inference. So training builds the models. Inference uses them billions of times a day.

Qualcomm thinks the market is going to be enormous. Nearly 6 trillion almost 7 trillion dollars in data center spending is expected through 2030 according to McKenzie. And so just capturing about 5 to 10% maybe just even 5% of that market would transform Qualcomm's business. Their products are complete server systems based on their hexagon NPU.

So that'd be neural processing unit chips already used in billions of smartphones around the world. One key advantage, and this is where it gets a little technical, it's a 768 gigabytes of memory per card. They're saying that's more than what Nvidia and AMD offer in this particular uh rack type setting. That matters though for running larger AI models. And so this is where Qualcomm hopes to compete. They'll sell these complete systems that you're seeing on your screen right now for or also individual components. Qualcomm says even Nvidia or AMD could become customers for some of their parts.

But the timing really matters because for example, OpenAI recently announced it's buying chips from AMD, showing big AI companies want alternatives to Nvidia, especially within the inference market. But Qualcomm only named one customer so far. There's no pricing details. They're launching in 2026, which is years behind Nvidia's dominance, but there's no taking away from the fact that this is a big new market for Qualcomm guys.

Yeah. And I mean as you point out Christina no shortage of potential competitors obviously AMD and Nvidia but others as well and we you know sometimes I don't think we talk enough about the fact that Alphabet I mean their TPU is for inference as well right and gives them potentially a leg up to a certain extent this is kind of a different subject but on a cost per token basis in terms of what it costs them and a lot of this goes back to that I guess for the hyperscalers

what is your you know what's the cost per token going to be I don't know where this thing's going to get priced and what it's going to be able to do but that will become important.

Yeah. Normally in the chip world they refer to it as total cost of ownership TCO and so Qualcomm didn't provide specific details. A lot of companies how they benchmark it is different. They're saying that the total cost of ownership will be cheaper uh because of the power efficiency of said chips because these aren't GPUs that are using a lot more power. The NPUs and more custom-made chips tend to use a lot less. So, that's going to be their selling point going forward. I'm sure in the coming months they'll reveal some more data around that. But to your point, Google really stands out. Even Jensen Wong from Nvidia has spoken many times about just how advanced Google has become in the TPU market and just they've been here for a long time. This isn't a company that just made a chip uh you know, five years ago. So, uh, that's another company to look out for. No doubt.

All right. What are we thinking? Do we think it's hype? Oh my goodness. 203. What do we guys think? Do we think this is hype for Qualcomm or do we think they just entered into the race with Nvidia and AMD? Dude, who would have thought Qualcomm enters the race? 20% move, $31 up on the day and completely sends a surprise to semiconductor investors that maybe didn't think Qualcomm was going to be competing with uh the biggest chip companies in the world.

All right, that's it. Thank everybody. Means a lot. Means the world. Appreciate you being here. I will try to remain as uh as much as a core human that I've been uh since 2021 when starting this channel throughout the ups and downs and you know mistakes whatever has happened I think has led to to this moment and uh at its core I I think it's I think it's been the journey of a lifetime. It's been incredible to be here.

All right. Thank you. Appreciate it, guys. I'm sorry if there's a couple other super chats I did not get to. Uh I'll be back on the close. We'll see what we got for earnings. Um, we'll do the birthday photo thingy at the end of the day and uh we'll do we'll do the giveaway as well. We'll do the giveaway as well towards the end of the day and uh we'll have some fun questions for the for the giveaway. So, there you go.

All right. Love you all. Appreciate it. Um, I think that is pretty much it. We still have to do word of the day, right? Okay, let's do let's do word of the day. This should be the last one for today.

Okay, here we go. Uh, effulgent. Effulgent. Radiating brilliance, shining brightly, full of light or joy. Effulgent.

I would say the stock market is pretty damn effulgent today. Up 1% on the S&P. Tesla's up five. Palantir's up two. Hoodie's up five. Nvidia's up three. SoFi's up three, Google's up 2.7. I mean, you're really getting some exciting moves right here. And if we can continue this on to the end of the day and then going into earnings starting tomorrow and then this would be a very effulgent stock market for the for the end of the year.

All right, that's it. Thank you everybody. Appreciate it. Thank you for the super chats again. Means the world. I'll be back on the market close. We'll do a fun birthday stream. We'll cover the markets and we don't have any major earnings today. We have a couple of companies including Cadence. We'll look at those and uh then we'll keep going from there. Thank you everybody. Deeply appreciate you all. Love you all. I will see you guys on the market close. Bye everybody. Have a good one.