本周市场概览与焦点

Hello my friends. Today is October 4th, and this is Markets Weekly. 各位朋友大家好。今天是10月4日，这里是《市场周报》。

So this past week, looking at the broad equity indexes, doesn't seem like that much is going on. 回顾过去一周，从整体股票指数来看，市场似乎没有发生太多变动。

We have people whispering of an October, and the market did trend up a little bit, though historically October has been a volatile month. 尽管历史上10月是一个波动性较大的月份，但市场确实略有上涨，人们也开始低声讨论“十月行情”。

Gold and silver also trended higher, did have a notable down day on Thursday, but those losses were recouped on Friday. 黄金和白银也呈现上涨趋势，尽管周四出现了显著下跌，但周五又收复了失地。

Now the big news the past week, of course, was the government shutdown and related to that, the lack of the monthly non-farm payroll prints. 当然，过去一周的重大新闻是政府停摆（Government Shutdown: 指美国国会未能通过拨款法案，导致联邦政府非必要部门暂停运作）以及由此引发的月度非农就业报告未能发布。

So today, let's talk a little bit about what private measures of the labor market are saying, and secondly, let's talk a bit more about the government shutdown. 因此，今天我们首先来探讨一下私营部门的劳动力市场数据透露了什么，其次，我们将更深入地讨论政府停摆的问题。

劳动力市场现状与私营数据

All right. So every time, in every, let's say, era, the market cares more about some things than others. 好的。可以说，在每个时期，市场关注的重点都不同。

When inflation was high, the market cared most of all about CPI, and in prior errors, it cared most about things like money growth and so forth. 当通货膨胀高企时，市场最关心的是CPI（Consumer Price Index: 衡量消费品和服务价格变化的指标），而在更早的时期，市场最关心的是货币增长等因素。

Right now, we are in a period where the market cares most of all about employment, and that's because that's what the Fed is focusing on. 而现在，我们正处于一个市场最关注就业的时期，这是因为美联储（Federal Reserve: 美国中央银行，负责制定货币政策）目前正将重心放在就业上。

Now, over the past few weeks, it's become clear that the labor market is deteriorating. 现在，过去几周的情况表明，劳动力市场正在恶化。

Now, inflation is still a little bit above the Fed's target, but the Fed has signaled that it's worried about the labor market, cut rates last month, and is guiding towards two more cuts this year. 尽管通胀仍略高于美联储的目标，但美联储已发出信号，表示担忧劳动力市场，上个月已降息，并暗示今年还将有两次降息。

Unfortunately, we did not get the monthly non-farm payroll prints last week, and so the market is kind of flying blind, and so is the Fed. 不幸的是，上周我们没有收到月度非农就业报告，因此市场和美联储都像在盲飞。

However, last week, we did get some other reports from the private sector about the state of the labor market. 然而，上周我们确实从私营部门获得了一些关于劳动力市场状况的其他报告。

So we do have some things to go on, and who knows, maybe going forward, with more concern about public data sources, maybe there will be greater reliance on private data sources. 所以我们确实有一些可以依据的信息，谁知道呢，也许未来随着对公共数据来源的更多担忧，人们可能会更依赖私营数据来源。

And to be clear, this is not something that's new. 需要明确的是，这并非新鲜事。

I remember that after the financial crisis, and we were doing Huey, many people were thinking we would have imminent hyperinflation, did not trust the inflation prints, it pointed to things like, you know, the billion price project or shadow staff or something like that, and were confident that actually hyperinflation was happening. 我记得在金融危机之后，当我们进行量化宽松（Quantitative Easing: 央行通过购买政府债券等方式向市场注入大量流动性以刺激经济）时，许多人认为将出现迫在眉睫的恶性通货膨胀，不信任通胀数据，他们会指向“十亿价格项目”或“影子统计”之类的东西，并坚信恶性通胀正在发生。

It's just that the government was lying about it, and of course, that was all nonsense. 他们认为只是政府在掩盖真相，当然，那都是无稽之谈。

However, we do have some reputable measures of, well, estimates of how the labor market is going. 然而，我们确实有一些可靠的衡量劳动力市场状况的估计。

So, let's talk about those. 那么，我们来谈谈这些数据。

私营部门就业报告分析

First off, we have the ADP (Automatic Data Processing: 一家提供人力资源管理和薪酬服务的公司) monthly employment report that they put out. 首先，我们有ADP发布的月度就业报告。

So, ADP is a large payment processor. ADP是一家大型支付处理公司。

If you work in the private sector in the US, there's a good chance that you get your weekly paycheck processed by ADP. 如果你在美国私营部门工作，你的周薪很可能由ADP处理。

They have about 26 million employees in their service. 他们服务约2600万员工。

So, it's a pretty big sample of how the labor market is going. 所以，这是一个相当大的劳动力市场样本。

Now, the estimates were for the ADP print to show, say, 50,000 in jobs growth. 当时，市场预期ADP报告会显示新增5万个就业岗位。

They actually showed a loss of 30,000 jobs last month. 但实际上，上个月他们显示减少了3万个就业岗位。

Again, it's a huge, huge upset. 这又是一个巨大的、令人震惊的意外。

Now, a big reason for them is that they've revised their model, also updated their model to take into account the big benchmark revisions that we got last month. 其中一个主要原因是他们修改了模型，并更新模型以纳入我们上个月获得的重要基准修订。

So because of those benchmark revisions showing that overall the economy has created fewer jobs than expected, that affected their model and so it gave us negative 30,000 print. 由于这些基准修订显示总体经济创造的就业岗位少于预期，这影响了他们的模型，从而导致了负3万的报告结果。

They mentioned that if not for those revisions, they'd have, say, 40,000 more, which would give them, let's say, a 10,000 increase in jobs, but of course, that would still be below estimates. 他们提到，如果不是这些修订，他们将增加约4万个就业岗位，也就是说，会增加1万个就业岗位，但当然，这仍然低于预期。

So overall, obviously a disappointing print, but it's just one measure. 所以总体而言，这显然是一份令人失望的报告，但这只是一个衡量标准。

So let's look at other measures. 那么我们来看看其他衡量标准。

Another payments processor, Paychex, it doesn't give as granular details, and they're also a sizable processor, cover about 10 million employees in the United States. 另一个支付处理公司Paychex，它没有提供那么详细的数据，但它也是一个相当大的处理商，覆盖美国约1000万员工。

Also, they produce this index, and also they have wage growth as well, according to their index. 此外，他们也编制了一个指数，并且根据他们的指数，工资增长也在其中。

Again, it doesn't look like the job market is doing very well. 同样，看起来就业市场表现不佳。

And if you look at their wage gains, it also seems like it's been steadily decelerating, and let's say increases roughly about 3% annual rate. 如果你看他们的工资增长数据，似乎也一直在稳步减速，年增长率大约在3%左右。

So nothing to write home about. 所以这没什么值得大书特书的。

ISM调查与市场解读

Now other prints that we get are from the ISM (Institute for Supply Management: 供应管理协会，发布制造业和非制造业经济活动报告) survey. 我们收到的其他报告来自ISM调查。

So these are diffusion surveys. 这些是扩散指数调查。

What happens is that they're given a survey and asked to say that, no, are things better, worse, or the same than last month? 其运作方式是，受访者会收到一份调查问卷，被问及情况是比上个月更好、更差还是相同？

It doesn't measure magnitude, it only measures direction. 它不衡量幅度，只衡量方向。

And according to the ISM surveys, if you look at the employment sub-component, it's all below 50. 根据ISM调查，如果你查看就业分项指数，它都低于50。

That means employment is getting worse. 这意味着就业状况正在恶化。

So basically, all the private sectors of employment that we get the past month all show that the labor market continues to do poorly. 所以基本上，我们上个月获得的所有私营部门就业数据都表明劳动力市场持续表现不佳。

Now I think it's really important to note that these measures of employment don't correlate very well with the non-farm payrolls data. 现在我认为非常重要的一点是，这些就业衡量指标与非农就业数据关联性不强。

So habitually, people usually ignore the ADP prints. 所以通常情况下，人们习惯性地忽略ADP报告。

However, directionally, they seem to move, they tend to move in the same direction. 然而，从方向上看，它们似乎趋于同向变动。

So the non-farm payroll prints, when we eventually get it, probably won't look very good. 因此，当我们最终获得非农就业报告时，其结果可能不会很好看。

Now, one thing to note is that you have a lot of people looking at this and just shrugging it off and saying, you know, this is all due to supply side issues. 现在，有一点值得注意的是，许多人对此不以为然，认为这都是由供给侧问题引起的。

I have to say, because of the crackdown in illegal immigration, that's what's affecting the job prints, and that is definitely part of it. 我不得不说，由于对非法移民的打击，这确实影响了就业数据，这无疑是其中一部分原因。

But it's also pretty clear, though, that there's a demand component, because if we suddenly have less supply of labor, you would expect that the price of labor, so wages, to go up, but that's just not happening. 但同样非常清楚的是，也存在需求侧因素，因为如果我们突然劳动力供应减少，你会预期劳动价格，即工资会上涨，但这种情况并没有发生。

So definitely a demand component there as well. 所以那里肯定也有需求侧的组成部分。

Now, one thing that I thought was super interesting the past week was that when we had the poor jobs market data from ADP, the market actually went up, the stock market went up, the bond markets, you know, priced in more rate cuts, so rates went lower, but the stock market actually went up. 上周有一件我觉得非常有趣的事情是，当ADP公布了糟糕的就业市场数据后，市场实际上是上涨的，股市上涨了，债券市场也消化了更多的降息预期，所以利率下降了，但股市反而上涨了。

So that seems to be a tell that we're in a regime where bad news is good news, whereas normally you would say that, hey, we're increasing the probability of a recession, maybe that's not good, maybe stocks should sell off, but it seems like there's a class of investors who think that bad data, more rate cuts, market go up. 这似乎表明我们正处于一个“坏消息就是好消息”的时期，而通常你会认为，衰退的可能性增加了，这可能不是好事，股市应该下跌，但似乎有一类投资者认为，糟糕的数据意味着更多的降息，市场就会上涨。

So that's an interesting shift in the regime, and that's volatile, that could change at any moment, but that seems to be what's happening at the time at the moment. 所以这是一个有趣的制度转变，而且这种转变是波动的，随时可能变化，但目前看来情况就是如此。

So that leads us to my next topic, the government shutdown. 这便引出了我的下一个话题：政府停摆。

政府停摆的机制与影响

So what happens during a government shutdown? 那么，政府停摆期间会发生什么？

So this is different from the debt ceiling issue. 这与债务上限问题不同。

So periodically we go into debt ceiling issues or government shutdowns. 我们周期性地会遇到债务上限问题或政府停摆。

The last shutdown we had was during Trump's first term, and that's when the president demanded border wall funding in exchange for government funding, didn't work well for him. 上次停摆发生在特朗普第一任期内，当时总统要求边境墙资金以换取政府拨款，但对他而言效果不佳。

That shutdown went on for over 30 days, and eventually he caved. 那次停摆持续了30多天，最终他妥协了。

But a government shutdown is when Congress and the legislature can't agree on whether or not to have a bill to continue to fund the government. 但政府停摆是指国会和立法机构无法就一项继续为政府提供资金的法案达成一致。

The government can access the debt markets. 政府可以进入债务市场。

It can issue Treasury debt, no problem. 它可以发行国债，没有问题。

It just doesn't have the authority to spend the money, and that's what we're arguing towards right now. 它只是没有权力花钱，这正是我们目前争论的焦点。

Now, when the government can't agree on, you know, to have a bill to continue to finance the government, then the government just shuts down until it gets a bill. 现在，当政府无法就一项继续为政府提供资金的法案达成一致时，政府就会停摆，直到获得一项法案。

Now, during a shutdown, there's a division of employees between essential and non-essential. 现在，在停摆期间，员工被分为必要和非必要两类。

Non-essential employees go home. 非必要员工回家。

There's about, let's say, 700,000 to 800,000 of these. 大约有70万到80万这类员工。

But they're basically on furloughed or holiday or something like that. 但他们基本上是休假或放假之类的。

But don't worry, they are not paid at the moment, but when the government resumes, they get back pay. 但别担心，他们目前没有工资，但当政府恢复运作时，他们会得到补发工资。

So the economic impact of this isn't super large. 所以这带来的经济影响并不是特别大。

You can say that workers that would have gone to local restaurants to get lunch, now they're not doing that. 你可以说，原本会去当地餐馆吃午饭的员工，现在不去了。

And so the local restaurant will suffer. 因此当地餐馆会受到影响。

But insofar as the workers having money to spend, you know, they're going to skip a paycheck, but they'll get that in back pay. 但就员工有钱可花而言，他们会错过一笔薪水，但会通过补发工资获得。

So, it's not that big of a deal. 所以，这并不是什么大问题。

Essential workers will continue to work. 必要员工将继续工作。

So, that's like the police, the military, airports, and it looks like a lot of the national parks will continue to function as well, which is great because I would hate to be a tourist, fly all the way over to the United States, go to Yellowstone, and find out that it's closed. 例如警察、军队、机场，而且看起来许多国家公园也将继续开放，这很好，因为我可不想作为游客，千里迢迢飞到美国，去了黄石公园却发现它关闭了。

停摆背后的政治博弈

So it seems like the impasse right now has to do with healthcare. 所以目前僵局似乎与医疗保健有关。

So the Democrats would like to have renewal in a lot of the tax credits or the credits that support healthcare, or Republicans want those to lapse. 民主党希望延长许多支持医疗保健的税收抵免或补贴，而共和党则希望这些补贴失效。

Now the argument Democrats give is that these healthcare subsidies are going to impact a lot of Republican voters as well. 现在民主党提出的论点是，这些医疗保健补贴也将影响许多共和党选民。

And that's totally true. 这完全正确。

Poor people are part of the Democratic party and part of the Republican party. 穷人既是民主党的一部分，也是共和党的一部分。

And if the Republicans continue with their, you know, not wanting to renew these healthcare subsidies, a lot of their own voters will be impacted. 如果共和党继续不愿延长这些医疗保健补贴，他们自己的许多选民将受到影响。

And so they feel that this is a good political issue. 所以他们认为这是一个很好的政治议题。

The messaging from the Republican side is that, well, the Democrats are trying to shut the government down because they want to give benefits to illegal immigrants. 共和党方面的说法是，民主党试图关闭政府，因为他们想向非法移民提供福利。

And honestly, that there's some truth to that as well. 坦白说，这也有一定的道理。

Some of the funding does go to illegal immigrants in emergency circumstances, and that is kind of a very unpopular point. 部分资金确实在紧急情况下流向了非法移民，这是一个非常不受欢迎的观点。

There's a perception that Democrats are giving benefits to illegal immigrants. 人们普遍认为民主党正在向非法移民提供福利。

We've seen that over the past few years when illegal immigrants are given lodging and hotels and food and so forth, and that's been unpopular since many poor Americans are feeling the pinch. 过去几年我们看到，非法移民获得了住宿、酒店和食物等，这在许多贫困美国人感到经济压力的情况下一直不受欢迎。

So the shutdown, according to the betting markets, can go 17 days, although the people that I listen to who are really politically plugged in suggest that it will resolve faster than expected. 根据博彩市场的预测，停摆可能持续17天，尽管我听取的一些真正了解政治内幕的人士认为它会比预期更快解决。

The big problem, of course, is that, well, from the Republican side, you know, nobody wants to cut healthcare. 当然，最大的问题是，从共和党方面来看，没有人希望削减医疗保健。

From the Democrat side, historically speaking, when you're trying to shut down the government as a negotiating position, it's not politically popular. 从民主党方面来看，从历史上看，当你试图以政府停摆作为谈判筹码时，这在政治上是不受欢迎的。

So that's why President Trump had to cave in 2018. 这就是为什么特朗普总统在2018年不得不妥协的原因。

And this time around, the Democrats, of course, are aware of this. 而这次，民主党当然也意识到了这一点。

There's no fallout immediately. 目前没有立即的负面影响。

Stock market continues to up. 股市持续上涨。

A lot of central services continue to function. 许多核心服务仍在运作。

So there's really no urgency to end it. 所以真的没有结束它的紧迫性。

But as this goes on, I think there's more pressure on the side that's not willing, that's using this as a bargaining chip to cave. 但随着时间的推移，我认为不愿妥协、将此作为谈判筹码的一方将面临更大的压力。

Now, why is this an issue? 那么，这为什么会成为一个问题呢？

So this seems to be a hold. 所以这似乎是一个僵局。

This seems to be driven largely by Minority Senate Leader Schumer of the State of New York. 这似乎主要由纽约州参议院少数党领袖舒默推动。

Now earlier in the year, there was also the prospect of a shutdown. 今年早些时候，也曾出现停摆的可能性。

Senator Schumer caved very quickly back then, and that drew a lot of criticism from within the progressive wing of the Democratic party, and he is sensitive to that. 当时参议员舒默很快就妥协了，这在民主党内的进步派中引起了大量批评，他对这一点很敏感。

A lot of people in the Democratic party are looking at all the things that President Trump is doing. 民主党内的许多人都在关注特朗普总统所做的一切。

They're very worried, and they really want their leaders to stand up and do something about it. 他们非常担忧，并真心希望他们的领导人能够站出来做些什么。

Now, another wrinkle in this is that Senator Schumer, Senator of New York, is facing a potential challenge by progressive star Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in 2028. 现在，另一个复杂因素是，纽约州参议员舒默可能在2028年面临进步派明星亚历山德里娅·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯（Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 简称AOC，美国政治人物，民主党成员，代表纽约州第14国会选区）的潜在挑战。

So, it seems like some people think that he might be facing some pressure to act a bit tougher and appease a bit more of the progressive elements in his constituency. 所以，似乎有些人认为他可能面临压力，需要表现得更强硬一些，以安抚选区内更多的进步派选民。

Otherwise, you know, maybe he'll lose in 2028. 否则，他可能会在2028年输掉选举。

And AOC is a very formidable political star, and of course, she's part of the progressive wing. 而AOC是一位非常强大的政治明星，当然，她也属于进步派。

So, looks like we're going to just kind of hold this until probably we get some kind of resolution. 所以，看起来我们可能会一直僵持下去，直到可能获得某种解决方案。

My best guess is that this will get resolved next week, and when that happens, I think the markets will like it, and maybe traditional safe havens that were perceived to benefit from this, like gold and crypto, might have a pullback. 我最好的猜测是，下周此事将得到解决，届时我认为市场会对此感到满意，而那些被认为会因此受益的传统避险资产，如黄金和加密货币，可能会出现回调。

Now, one thing to note, though, is that, you know, one of the reasons why you can have this end quickly is that you kind of want some kind of forcing mechanism. 然而，有一点值得注意的是，之所以能够迅速结束，是因为你需要某种强制机制。

So, it looks like we're not getting big complaints from people. 所以，看起来我们并没有收到民众的大量抱怨。

Looks like we're not getting good complaints on the market. 看起来市场上也没有出现强烈的抱怨。

So, it could also be one of these weird circumstances where unless the market goes down, we won't have a resolution. 所以，这也可能是一种奇怪的情况，除非市场下跌，否则我们不会有解决方案。

And so, but when we do have a resolution, the market will go up. 因此，一旦有了解决方案，市场就会上涨。

So, it's kind of silly like this. 所以，这有点像这样，很荒谬。

Anyway, we'll find out next week. 无论如何，我们下周就会知道了。

So far, it doesn't seem to be a big deal. 到目前为止，这似乎不是什么大问题。

And again, this can drag on for a long time. 而且，这再次可能拖延很长时间。

Last time it lasted more than 30 days. 上次持续了30多天。

Right now, it's only been three. 现在，才刚过了三天。

All right, so that's all I have prepared for this week. 好的，这就是我为本周准备的所有内容。

Talk to you all next week. 我们下周再聊。