Good morning everybody. Welcome back to another episode of the market open. We are live and we are early because we've got some jobs data. We've got a lot to talk about. Obviously, we had Nvidia earnings. It seems like Jensen might have saved the market and become Santa Claus for 2025. Let's get right into that jobs data came out about 5 minutes ago and then we'll analyze and see what we've got going on.

Here we go. This is September non-farm payrolls. Are up a robust 119,000. 119,000 would be the best since April when we were up 158,000 in the rear view mirror. Well, last month was downgraded from 22,000 to minus 4,000.

Now, if we look at what's going on with the unemployment rate, it ticked up from 4.3 to 4.4. That was unexpected. 4.4 would uh last time we were at that level. Boy, I have to go back a ways. October of 2021 when it was 4.5%.

Now, if we look at labor force participation rate, it ticked up. That's a good thing. 62.4 equals where we were in May. You have to go to April of this year when it was 62.6 to find a higher number.

In terms of the earnings. Average hourly earnings month over month up 2/10. That's a bit on the week side. We're expecting up 3/10 up 2/10 equals where we were in June to find a lower number. You are going in the wayback machine to August of 23 when it was up one-10th. Take a year-over-year perspective. This gets better from 3.7 our last look and expectation to 3.8. 3.8 would be the best since July when it was 3.9 because these have been trending lower. The high water mark though for the year is 3.9 and we've had four months of that. The first three of the year were 3.9%.

If we look at the uh hours worked and this is always important. It remains at 34.2. To find a lower number, you're going to January when it was 34.1. And finally, we get U6, the underemployment rate. It was 8.1 our last look. It comes in at 8%. 8% would equal where we were in February. To find a higher number, you're going all the way back to October of 2021.

Now, we have initial jobless claims. This is for the week of November 15th. As I said, there's weeks missing. We're expecting 227,000 comes in at 220,000. These numbers do not reflect nervousness in the labor market. They've been very well behaved. 220,000 would be the lowest level of claims since mid July. And finally, on continuing claims, it ramped up just a bit. 1,974,000, and that would be the highest level since uh November of 2021. we see that interest rates had gyrated a bit. Uh but after the

Okay, so those are the job numbers. These were the very important numbers that were supposed to come out today. Uh folks, we're looking at essentially an increase of 119,000 jobs, which is quite the number in terms of the uh amount of jobs that we got. Way better than expectations, quite frankly. way way way better than expectations and it's signaling that well we might not have that many issues in the labor market perceptually. I think there's a lot of nuance to this that we'll break down but this jobs data right here 119,000 jobs above expectations of 53,000 uh unemployment rate up to 4.4% above expectations of 4.3% that's the highest since October 2021.

Now again, remember that is September, not October. A lot of the announcements we saw, we got a new announcement by this morning in Verizon, uh 13,000 more layoffs. Amazon, UPS, Intel, American Airlines, all those companies that we saw laying off people in October. You know, that that probably counts in the October jobs data because it happened in October. But we don't have that October jobs data. The BLS yesterday, Bureau of Labor Statistics said that we are not going to get that October data. You might be saying, why are we not going to get that data? I don't really have an answer for you, but that is officially what the BLS said. we are not going to get that October data.

The November data is going to come out um on December 10th, which is the day of the FOMC. So, the problem here and the reason why rate code probabilities went from 50 to 35% is because the Fed is missing a crucial piece of data for October. However, the Fed is getting a crucial piece of data for September, which is way better than expected. The question becomes, is it enough to say that we don't need to cut rates given that the job market was relatively healthy in September?

Uh if we don't know what happened in October, now even though we added 53,000 more jobs than expected, unemployment is at the highest level since October 2021 at 4 and a half or 4.4%. Remember, this was three and a half% at the end of October of of 2023. So, we are up a significant amount since then. If that gets anywhere near 4.7 4.8 obviously we are going to see that impact on the broader economy if we have that many jobs get laid off. Now it's up to the Fed to kind of make a conclusion on how they think of the September jobs report the upcoming November jobs report the lack of the October jobs report and the increase in the unemployment rate.

However, is there an argument and we're going to find out today. Is there an argument uh that the market doesn't care anymore? The market doesn't care anymore. I mean, we're going to get into Nvidia earnings, but as you can see, stocks in the pre-market, Nvidia not really budging, up 4 and a.5%. AMD still up 3%, Tesla up 2%, Oracle up 3%, Meta up 2%, S&P 500 up 1.4%. It's down slightly from 673, but still holding 67197.

Is there an argument that the Nvidia earnings were so good and so strong, which we're going to talk about, but my goodness though, we needed that type of a quarter from Jensen and boy did he deliver. Uh, were those earnings good enough for the market to overlook this? Or when the market opens, do we dump because of the data being too good, which means we're not getting a rake in. And if we don't get a rake up, we're going to have bigger problems in the economy and then Nvidia is not good enough. I don't know. But in the next hour, we're going to find out kind of how the market goes back and forth on this.

Um but nonetheless, this is kind of what we're seeing in the context of this data and this is quite incredible. Oh yeah, you're right. Jobs date is December 16th, not on the 10th. The Fed FOMC meeting is on the 10th. So the Fed's not even going to have the December jobs data or the October job, sorry, November jobs data, which makes this even more complicated because this is the only piece of data they get.

I mean, they'll get a couple more things over the next coming weeks like PPI, CPI, etc., But they're not going to get the November report until six days after FOMC. So they literally have to now judge it on the perception of the October report, the September report we just got. And then the increase in unemployment up from 4.3 to 4.6. I mean, it's a difficult thing for the Fed. In my opinion, it shouldn't be that difficult. There's enough headlines to easily say, hey, maybe we like should be cutting

Fed probabilities right here from 35 to 39%. At one point, it was at 27% yesterday. So you are getting uh about a 7% boost which is good on the rate cut probabilities but it might not be enough and ultimately over the next coming weeks we're going to get a bit more data.

So for those that are just joining the jobs data is 119,000 jobs in the month of September above expectations which is good. Uh we are not getting the October data which most people perceive as bad which would be kind of the warning sign to the Fed to cut rates and unemployment is now 4.4 versus 4.3.

Last thing we'll say on the Fed real quick and then we'll get to Nvidia is the Fed minutes came out yesterday and they were not pretty at all. Just being quite frank, I mean most participants in the Fed felt that it is appropriate to keep rates unchanged for the end of the year. Uh only as several of them suggested further cuts and most participants were concerned that cuts could add to the risk of higher inflation. Uh which is another thing that really tanked the rate cut probabilities yesterday to 35%. So the Fed is not on the side of rate cuts. data could change their mind. We're not giving them the type of data that would change their mind outside of the unemployment rate going up by 0.1%. But realistically, you need like a pretty crappy jobs report to get them to think, hey, it is time to cut and that matters more than inflation.

And we're going to find out if they end up getting the data or if they end up perceiving the data is going to be enough to cut. So that's what we got on the jobs data.

However, it might not matter. It might not matter because Nvidia absolutely smashed. Yesterday was one of the best earnings we have ever seen from Nvidia and they really needed to deliver like they had to put up some big freaking numbers to save this market. And based on the pre-market action, it really does feel we'll see what happens when the market opens. Google trading at alltime highs. Cipher got a new deal in the data center space. Iran, Nebius, all these companies getting a move. Google right there. Look at that. 30435. That's up another 4% after being up 3% yesterday. That's not easy for a company like Google to do.

Amcor, shout out to all my folks that got Amcore. That's up 10% in the pre-markets. That is because of Nvidia. Core Wee, wow, I didn't even look at Cor this morning. That's up 10%. Nebus is up 8%. Oracle's up 3%. Meta's back above 600 at 2%. And then the S&P 500 up 1.55%.

It really, really feels like Santa Claus is back. And that Santa Claus is dressed as the CEO of Nvidia. So, what did we get on the earnings? I'm sure a lot of people were watching with me yesterday. Thank you for everyone who was here uh with Tanner, Neil, Jose, and I watching these earnings. This was a big one. Regardless of if you own Nvidia stock or not, they really needed to up the ante and deliver in a world in which most of the market feels there is an AI or not most of the market, but the perception of many parts of the market feels there's an AI bubble.

Capex is not real. AI is fake. It's not useful. this whole revolution over the past two and a half years is meant for nothing. It's all going to collapse. It's a bubble. Michael Burry yada yada. I mean, you had all these concerns over the past couple weeks, which led to this 4% decline in the S&P 500.

And Nvidia delivered 57 billion in revenue. That's up 62% year-over-year. A$130 of EPS, that's a beat as well, up 60% year-over-year. Data center revenue. Street thought they would come in at 49 billion. They came in at 51.2. Up 66% year-over-year. 73.4% gross margins.

The most important thing that I got from the quarter was the revenue guide. Street thought they would come in at 61 billion. They came in at 65. It's a 4 billion increase on the revenue guide. I mean, I don't think they beat by four billion on revenue guide in a couple quarters. Like usually they beat by a billion and a half, two billion. This one was a monster revenue beat and I think Nvidia knew they had to show that type of a beat to continue getting the market to not be that afraid about a bubble.

Jensen Huang says Blackwell sales are off the charts and cloud GPUs are sold out. Comput demand keeps accelerating and compounding across training and inference, each growing exponentially. We've entered the virtuous cycle of AI. The AI ecosystem is scaling fast with more new foundation model makers, more AI startups across more industries and in more countries. AI is going everywhere doing everything all at once.

The first thing that he started off with uh on the earnings call was some people think AI is a bubble. We see it differently. And then he goes on for the next five minutes to explain why we're not in a bubble, why a lot of this is very real. all the different use cases of AI from robotics to way mode to Tesla FSD to agentic workflows etc etc and he basically try I mean implicitly he was telling everyone to shut the hell up and realize that this is a company that is putting up numbers that has never been seen before at a scale and size that can only be dreamt of

I mean with the fact that we are living at this time in this market in this economy to see these types of charts the scaling from a billion in revenue a couple years ago to 51 billion every quart. I mean, this is just unbelievable for Nvidia, but we're seeing it. And the question then becomes, is all is this fake? Is all this a bubble? Is all of this hoopla? Is all this just going to randomly collapse? Is there no infrastructure or foundational paradigm for why Nvidia is growing this much? Is it all just deals that are fake and manufactured? It's like, no, there is way more demand than supply.

As for Jensen, they are getting the GPU shipped as fast as pos possible. there is a one-year upgrade cycle that they are being very very stringent on to make sure that they uh stay the course for that and they have more demand every single year for these types of products. So, I mean, the idea that we're in a bubble, again, I think those fears are not fully gone, but you needed a type of quarter from Nvidia like we're getting right here to get people to at least start realizing maybe the growth is very real and maybe that growth is not stopping anytime soon. And maybe that growth is having very meaningful implications.

And uh Nvidia, I think, you know, said a lot of things last night. We'll talk about them. The number one thing outside of the gross margin expansion, the guidance is that they reaffirmed the $500 billion uh revenue opportunity in the next five quarters. And the CFO, Colette, she didn't just reaffirm the 500 billion. She said, "We believe that 500 billion opportunity will grow going into the next year for 2026." Aka, they're not going to just do 65 billion in revenue. They are going to crush that $65 billion number in Q4 and likely crush the expectations going even further uh going into 2026.

And as a result, the streets excited. So upgrades across the board this morning for Nvidia. Evercore buy at 352. Melius buy at 320. KGI buy at 296. Barrett buy at 275. Barkclays buy at 275. Bernstein buy. City buy. BNP buy. JP Morgan buy. Stifl by. Key Bank. Wolf buy. Jeff buy. Goldman buy. Rosenblot buy. Mazuo buy. William Blair buy. Deutsche Bank. Morning Star by Morgan Stanley. Buy. Wedbush. Buy. All of these upgraded from 210 to 215. Well into the 250s. the highest being 300s with Evercore and Melius Research. I mean, every single analyst is like, "Wait a second. What is going on here? These are way better than expected."

Simple math on this, and we'll get more deeper into the math as we dive into the numbers over the coming weeks. But if you assume Nvidia is going to do 850 of EPS in 2027, right now they are trading at 22 times earnings. That is not a bubble. That is not 500 times earnings, a thousand times earnings. That is not overly. Someone explain to me how 22 times forward earnings is a bubble or euphoric.

Now, you may think Nvidia is not going to put up that EPS growth. Therefore, there is no 22 times earnings because they're never going to get to $8.50 a share in 2027. That's fair. You can disagree with like their ability to generate those earnings. But to say that those earnings multiples are euphoric. I mean, Nvidia would have to be trading somewhere around 27530 to even think those forward estimates are in the 40 to 50 range, which you know, one could argue they deserve a forward estimate of 40 to 50 uh just because the quality of company that they are. But that would be a lot more suited to the argument for the people that are saying it's a bubble because they would be saying look at this multiple two years into future. What if something happens? What if you know the demand goes down? How can they be trading at these levels? They're trading at 22 times.

So, it's like it really is not making a ton of sense. And those earnings estimates are only going to go further higher and higher. So, you know, 20 times, 25 times, 30 times. These are not crazy crazy multiples. And as a result, I think that's why the stock is up 5% right here. And the street is getting excited.

Now let's talk about Burry. So Burry went on a tweet storm last night and I have some thoughts about what's going on with Burry. But Nvidia answered Burry straight up. So they said in the earnings call, what is Burry's biggest concern? It's about depreciation and the over depreciation that is leading to the uh restate or the underdepreciation that's re re leading to the overstating of earnings.

Nvidia said the A100 GPUs we shipped six years ago. So models from from what feels like a lifetime ago are still running at full utilization today powered by vastly by an improved software stack. We have evolved over the past 25 years from a gaming CPU company to now an AI data center infrastructure company. Essentially, they're saying uh with CUDA, with Envy Link, with their ability to have better software updates, which is essentially what we we've been talking I mean, Ticker, you did a great video on this, and he said that the software updates from Nvidia uh position their ability to extend the life cycle of their chips. And that's why they're saying we're not just a gaming company anymore. We are a full-on AI data infrastructure company.

And the chips that we shipped six years ago are still fully operational in a variety of different customers. And a lot of those customers can't get their hands on Blackwell because they're not XAI. They don't have first priority. And so they need to use something like the A100. So from that perspective, I mean, I really do think Burry is is gasping at straws here. I'm not saying he's completely wrong. I'm not saying that he can't be right. I'm not saying that we are even out of the woods on Nvidia. I mean, this stock could go down for a variety of different reasons. But at its core, his claim is starting to get a little sus.

And you know, the more someone tweets about this stuff, the more I think they're they're they're just trying to make an argument. I mean I mean like literally last night he switched from GPUs to start talking about stockbased compensation. He's like, wait, if we look at Nvidia from 2018 and their stockbased comp and then if we look at the dilution from the stockbased comp, it's like, dude, this is not this is not something that people are going to meaningfully care about.

Nor is this a concern that I think the broader institutional investor community has. I mean, like, yes, companies will issue stock. That's how they get the best talent in the world. The growth rate on the top and the bottom line, their gross margins, those are the things that fundamentally matter at at at at the trajectory of the company that Nvidia is scaling at. Complaining about stockbased compensation from 2018 and trying to do some reverse engineering math to be like, well, this means that it's deeply overvalued. It's like, no, dude, no one's going to care. Like if if that's his argument to get the entire AI bubble to collapse by complaining about stockbased comp. It's like you need more people to believe there's a story to Nvidia that continues going higher. That story continues to show on the metrics that matter. That's going higher. Investors will tolerate more stockbased comp.

Then he tweeted that every company listed below has a suspicious revenue recognition. The actual chart with all the give and take deals would be unreadable. So he's going back to the circular financing argument. Jensen addressed those concerns headon. He said it's not circular financing because those companies have independent revenue, Anthropic, OpenAI, etc. from other businesses or from other customers. So they're not just like we're not just giving them the money, they're giving it back to us, and then we're giving them more money, they give it back to us. Like they are actually charging other people, enterprises and customers across the world for money, but they are using our investment in the meantime to be able to scale those businesses.

Number two, he said, "We have a lot." He essentially, Jensen was like, "Dude, we have so much money, we don't know what to do with it." Like, we can't give a dividend. Uh we can't increase the dividend to two pennies. We can't just keep buying back our stock. They did buy back a decent chunk of stock this quarter. They have 60 billion in cash. Like they have to invest it in the overall ecosystem. And Jensen made a point to really explain why they're investing in that ecosystem and supporting that ecosystem.

And the third point was a nice shot at AMD, but nonetheless, it kind of proves Jensen's point, which is that we are not giving up equity in our company. We are getting equity in these companies. So, if you want to call things super circular that, oh, this company's only buying your chips because they're going to get a stake in your company, like you can maybe make an argument for that, but again, if those companies can grow, then it's not going to be the biggest deal in the world. Jensen's like, "Dude, we're we're investing in companies and we're giving them some funding to be able to keep executing on their needs and if they do well, we get equity." Aka, if OpenAI collapses or Anthropic collapses, Nvidia is the one holding the bag. They're the one with the equity. So, it's like if Nvidia wants to pump up the bag just to hold it at the end of the day because it's some magic bubble. It doesn't make a lot of sense.

Now in terms of Michael Burry my my simple answer right here to what's going on with Burry is that I think and I said this a couple days ago but I I really do think it's based on a his tweet storm last night. I really do think this is true. I think he misses the glory days of 2008. I really think Michael Burry from a psychoanalytical perspective has been chasing the high that he has wanted to get back to over the past um 15 years.

And it's a very special feeling when you're on the island, you're by yourself, you're up against the world, the world tells you you're wrong, and you stick with your guns and you say, "Nope, I'm going to be right." And then you end up being right and you make a billion dollars. I mean, just like as a human being, if we all step back and we think about that and you know what is investing? Investing is at the end of the day where we're dealing with emotion, psychology, etc. like that feeling must have been such a euphoric high that he has never been able to achieve again that as as you know just like from a human nature perspective you would want to get that feeling

and he's tried to chase it again he's tried and he's been wrong every time he's tried to he has never had a big short 2.0 Oh, and I think he's looking at the AI landscape. He's connecting the dots around circular financing, valuation, uh, depreciation, yada yada, and he's going back into that mindset of, hey, I feel like I'm connecting the dots just like I was with the mortgage back securities crisis.

And there's never going to be an opportunity again, probably for the rest of his life, where he can identify some puzzle that he is now trying to put together and then be able to attach his name to that puzzle as the biggest bubble in modern history. Like if it's not the AI ecosystem, I don't know if there would ever be an opportunity like that again. Now, this is where as an investor, you have to ask yourself, do you actually believe it's a bubble? I think majority of us agree that it's not. And we're looking at the data to back that up. But Burry I think is from a psychoanalytical perspective saying this is my opportunity. This is my shot to be the guy again.

We've said for some time now, our forecast for China is zero. All of our forecast guidance that we showed zero. We should start that's the most important thing that she said. She also said that effectively China is a very important market to us. It's very important to United States. It's very important to China. We would love the opportunity to be able to re-engage the Chinese market with excellent products that we deliver and to be able to compete globally. The Chinese market is very large this year. My guess is probably about $50 billion. It's great for the American people that we're able to compete in the Chinese market. It's great for the China market that we're able to provide Nvidia's technology to them.

this. Now, all this guidance is without China. And late last night, we got an update from Bloomberg, which is again fueling the argument for Nvidia potentially not being a bubble. The White House is asking Congress, as for Bloomberg, to reject a bill curbing Nvidia exports to China. That came out late last night.

Now, this part I'm a little confused on because Jensen or not Jensen, Trump literally on Air Force One a couple weeks ago said that we are not going to have um we are not going to have uh Blackwell shipped to China. I mean, he quite literally said we don't want to ship Blackwell to China. And Marco Rubio was kind of the main guy that convinced Trump to not do this. Um but things have happened over the past couple weeks. What are the main things that have happened? Number one, the stock market's gone down. Number two, uh this affordability crisis started becoming a lot bigger of a thing and you know people started being concerned about inflation and and and and the cost of living etc. and and Trump kind of started losing some steam in the stock market.

I think Trump is taking a strategic look at what Nvidia earnings just did to the market. I mean if you're thinking Trump did not see the market last night and didn't see Nvidia beat earnings and the entire market adds almost 700 billion in market cap, Nvidia adding about 300 billion. Trump saw that and I think he's realizing, all right, we got to keep this party going. We got to keep this party party going. And in order to keep this party going, we might have to sacrifice a bit of national security in order to allow Nvidia to start selling chips into China.

Now, I'm still skeptical that they're going to get the clearances because again with Trump, you just never know. But based on that Bloomberg reporting, it does seem like uh the the the the president or the the the White House and administration officials, you got David Sax, all those guys are recognizing how unbelievably vital Nvidia is to every single 401k in the country, how abysmal it would be if this thing collapses and part of it not collapsing and keeping the revenue opportunity as strong as it is. And by the way, without China, it already I mean, without China, they're getting upgrades to $300. with China, you're talking about an extra 20 to $30 billion a year in revenue. I mean, that completely changes the estimates again and likely keeps Nvidia strong.

So, I I I think there is an argument that they get China back and if they do, they did they got the Middle East back yesterday. Saudi Arabia signed a deal for 70,000 chips. There's another deal for 600,000 chips that they're getting ready to purchase. Uh all the revenue, all the guidance that we've got so far from Nvidia does not include Middle East. you bring the Middle East back, you bring China back, maybe that ends up really really helping the uh the broader economy.

Walmart, we got Walmart earnings. Let's bring those up. Walmart slightly flat right here in the pre-markets, but we did get a major consumer brand with their earnings this morning. Just coming in with its earnings. Uh we've been waiting for that release. Courtney Reagan is standing by and she has the numbers. Hi Beck. Yes. So Walmart reporting adjusted adjusted earnings here of 62 cents. That's up 7% and it is 2 cents above the streets consensus on revenues of 179.5 billion. That's up 5.8% from last year. Also above the streets 177.43 billion estimate.

With one quarter left in the fiscal year, the retailer is upping its fullear forecast for sales and earnings for the second time. Now expecting revenues to grow between 4.8 and 5.1% and for earnings to fall in a range of 258 to 263 cents. and adjusted operating income to grow between 4.8% to 5.5%. That's up from its previous forecast of flat.

Now, US comparable store sales grew 4 and a half%. That's bettering analysts 4% estimate. also the 45th straight quarter of growth with broad-based strength. E-commerce grew 28% in the US. That's slightly outpacing the global e-commerce growth. Walmart Connect, that's the advertising business, it grew 33% in the US, 53% globally.

I spoke with CFO John David Rainey and asked how Walmart didn't see the same macroeconomic pressure on its results as others have called out. He said, "If there's a little incremental strain on the consumer, they're only going to become more selective to to look for more value, going to become more choiceful. We continue to demonstrate that our value proposition is resonating really strongly with our members and consumers."

Now, look, this makes sense. Walmart, at the end of the day, if people start feeling some pressure when it comes to um being costconcious, they're obviously going to go to places like Walmart that already have the lowest prices. The fact that they increased their uh fullear estimates I think is quite incredible. Walmart right there 3%. And by the way, Walmart's doing this, at least from my understanding, from what the CEO has said in the past by not putting the cost on the consumer because they really want to keep a good relationship with the uh with the Trump administration

increasing estimates, beating revenue, beating EPS up 3% going into the holiday season. Not the worst thing for a company like Walmart. And that's actually helping a lot of the defensives like a Home Depot, Target, Lowe's, etc. that have been uh holding up their earnings as well. Now again, Target decreased some of their guidance yesterday. So, a lot of this comes down to how good of a company are you? But it's not like you're seeing broad-based uh big box retailers like slash their earnings and say the consumer sucks. No one's buying stuff. Everyone's scared. You know, we have a real issue. You're just not seeing that. You're seeing that from Chipotle and Starbucks. And maybe that's a problem with Chipotle and Starbucks and that shouldn't be ignored for the overall health of the consumer, but you're not seeing it from a Walmart, which is a very important thing.

The stock market is now open. All right, wake your ass up. Let's get into it. Nvidia up 5% on the day. 1959 that's up 4 and a.5% 19593. Bitmine that's up 3%. Micro Strategy that's up 3%. Walmart that's up 3%. Nebus up 3.4. Cipher up 13%. Goos was pushing 304 right now. It's at 30290 303.

I am at the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank with the president, Beth Hammock. Uh Beth, thank you for having us here in Cleveland. Steve, we're thrilled that you came out and made the trip. Great. What an interesting conference you're putting on about financial stability. A good time for that, but also good time to talk about the outlook for Fed policy. Uh let's start with the easy thing, which is my question about your takeaway from this morning's jobs report. Um well, we've only had a short amount of time to break down the report, and it's only just one number. Again, we don't make too much of any one individual report. And this one is a bit stale. It's a bit dated because it comes from September. Um, it does look like it was a mixed report, but it's in line with my expectation that we we would see some further softening in the jobs market, which just highlights the difficult time that this is for monetary policy because we are seeing some signs of softening in the labor market, but we're still seeing elevated signs of inflation.

Basically, she's saying no. And the sad thing is the average American does not have time to peace like the fact that when she says we need to be more restrictive, all of us have an understanding of what that means because we're like we're in it every day. But the average person who does not keep up with the Fed, even though their entire life and every monetary decision they make in terms of a house or a car or credit cards, all of that depends on these interest rates. They don't have time to understand what that what she's saying. But she's basically saying, "No, we're not going to cut rates." And it is quite ridiculous given the type of labor market data we're seeing. But this is another Fed president that's on the side of basically saying we're not restrictive enough,

We just lost the 50-day moving average on the S&P. So, look, the the the fact that stocks are falling in the face of these earnings means I think I agree with you, Steve. This really has nothing to do with Nvidia. This is some

No, it has nothing to do with Nvidia. I mean this is and really think about this everybody when you look at these numbers okay if you put Nvidia 225 okay it's 24 times let's I'm going to highlight Nvidia 24 times at 225 you can put it at 250 26 times it's still cheaper than Apple at 250 a share

The macro is not good. I will tell you that right now. Look, all the people that are trying to play this off like AI isn't a problem and all this stuff, they're wrong. AI is going to be a problem in the job market. I'm sorry, but I am deathly worried about what the job market becomes in the next 10 or 15 years, but that doesn't change the fact that these companies are trading at attractive valuations. One thing does not have to do with the other. Now, our elected officials need to figure something out for AI and jobs, but that has nothing to do with the stock market. And everybody needs to separate those two things.

Yeah. But in all fairness, AMD is still up 50% over the past year.

Well, see, and that's the thing, and people get annoyed hearing this, but it's true. And I have to internalize this myself on names like Nvidia Pounder Hood. These names are up, Robin. It's still up 200% this year. Like

most people weren't buying AMD at 200.

I'm just saying that there are things about the market that are creating an overall story that has nothing to do with other companies. That's all I'm saying.

I agree there. There are obviously names like you got a lot of quantum names, nuclear names, Oak, like a lot of this stuff ran up like crazy.

So, so I agree with you there. It's just when you see like a Meta or an Nvidia get hit the way they're getting hit and then obviously it's going to take a rocket lap down way more than than that that creates an ugly storm for a lot of people.

And look, a lot of people that are in Nvidia have an average of 110 to 120. So yeah, are we really complaining that it's at 189?

No. And I I I I don't I agree. I don't think there's cost to complain for I mean, even if we even I you and me said if we even stay at 185, we'd be happy after earnings. It's just the the rugpull that seems to happen almost every day where we go up and that's I think what's really emotionally

I mean I I don't know if we can say that Alphabet at 299 is a rug pull or Amazon 223 is a rug pull. I mean we can say

Amazon definitely Amazon at 260. That one pulled everybody. Google, you're right.

Yeah. I mean look, Amazon 223. I mean I it's still I think undervalued but we're not seeing it at 150. Look there are companies that need to come back to reality and there are companies that deserve to be higher but that's every market and it's getting frustrating but look there are still great companies out there and we need to get some things done. You need the war to end overseas. You need lower rates and we need to have the Fed start cutting that period.