地缘政治与经济影响
Tracy Mumford: 来自《纽约时报》,为您播报今日新闻。我是 Tracy Mumford。今天,4月14日,星期二。以下是我们今天关注的要点。
Original English
Tracy Mumford: From the New York Times, it's the headlines. I'm Tracy Mumford. Today's Tuesday, April 14th. Here's what we're covering.
Tracy Mumford: 感觉我们离伊朗及其的战争已久。但这里的农民们却因此冲突而备受煎熬。我身后的这台收割机就体现了农民们所面临的挑战。我的同事 Damen Cave 正在越南,追踪伊朗战争的全球性连锁反应。越南是世界第二大大米出口国,大米是数亿人的主食。
Original English
Tracy Mumford: It feels like we're a long, long way away from Iran and the war there. But here, these farmers are hurting because of that conflict. This harvester behind me exemplifies the challenges that farmers are facing. My colleague Damen Cave is in Vietnam tracing the global fallout from the war in Iran. Vietnam is the world's second largest exporter of rice, a staple for hundreds of millions of people.
Damen Cave: 这个家伙每天要用大约100升柴油。战争开始前,这大概要花费72美元。现在是160美元。这里的农民们都快吓坏了,正想办法应对如此巨额的成本增加。
Original English
Damen Cave: This thing uses about 100 liters of diesel a day. Before the war started, that would cost about $72. Now it's $160. The farmers here are freaking out and trying to figure out how to deal with that much of a cost increase.
Tracy Mumford: 由于霍尔木兹海峡在过去六周几乎关闭,石油和天然气价格飙升。Damen 说,这不仅让事情变得更贵,也更慢了。自从运输大米和其他货物的巨型船只降低速度以节省燃料以来,长达数周的航运延误已成为常态。Damen 参观了一家大米批发商,在正常时期,那里有一条巨大的传送带会 24/7 不停运转。现在,他说它停工了,堆积着原本会运往中国、菲律宾,甚至是 Trader Joe's 和 Costco 的成包货物。
Original English
Tracy Mumford: With the strait of Hormuz all but closed for the last 6 weeks, oil and gas prices have skyrocketed. And Damen says that's made things not just more expensive, but also slower. Weeks long shipping delays have become common since the huge boats that transport rice and other goods have lowered their speeds to save fuel. Damen went to one wholesale rice distributor where in normal times a huge conveyor belt would have been going 24/7. Now, he said it was stopped and there were bags just piling up that normally would have been shipped out to China, the Philippines, even Trader Joe's and Costco.
Tracy Mumford: 再加上化肥短缺,因为世界上很多供应都来自中东。Damian 说,这对食品价格的长期影响可能相当大。一位稻农告诉他, quote, “如果我种新作物,我就是在往地上倒钱。”
Original English
Tracy Mumford: Add in the shortages of fertilizer since a lot of the world's supply comes from the Middle East. And Damian says the impact on food prices could be long-term. One rice farmer told him, quote, "If I grow new crops, I'm just pouring money into the ground."
Tracy Mumford: 目前,由海峡中断造成的经济后果可能会变得更糟。昨天,美国开始了自己的水道封锁,以阻止那些一直以来设法通过的伊朗石油油轮。目标是通过扼杀该国的石油收入来向其政权施压,但这可能会进一步推高全球石油价格。
Original English
Tracy Mumford: For the moment, the economic fallout caused by disruptions to the strait could get even worse. Yesterday, the US started its own blockade of the waterway to stop Iranian oil tankers that had been getting through. The goal is to put pressure on the regime by choking off the country's oil revenue, but it could drive global oil prices up even more.
Tracy Mumford: 与此同时,在华盛顿。
Original English
Tracy Mumford: Meanwhile, in Washington,
JD Vance: >> 从现在起,大家最关心的问题是伊朗是否有足够的灵活性,伊朗是否会接受我们认为事情能办成所必需的关键事项。
Original English
JD Vance: >> the big question from here on out is whether the Iranians will will will have enough flexibility, whether the Iranians will accept the critical things that we need to see in order for things to get done.
Tracy Mumford: >> 在美国和伊朗的会谈于周末破裂后,副总统 JD Vance 表示,主要症结在于伊朗的核计划。美国一再坚持,该国绝不能能够制造核武器。但《泰晤士报》现在获悉,美国在会谈中实际提出的方案是一项为期20年的计划,要求伊朗同意在未来二十年内暂停所有核活动。
Original English
Tracy Mumford: >> After talks between the US and Iran collapsed over the weekend, Vice President JD Vance said the big sticking point was Iran's nuclear program. The US has repeatedly insisted that the country must never be able to build a nuclear weapon. But the Times has now learned that what the US actually put forward at the talks was a 20-year plan, demanding that Iran would have to agree to suspend all nuclear activity for the next two decades.
Tracy Mumford: 在某些方面,这与过去美国伊朗政策的演变模式相似,美国官员多次试图拖延时间,推迟伊朗的核野心,但并未彻底终结它们。熟悉当前谈判的人士告诉《泰晤士报》,作为回应,伊朗昨天表示同意最多暂停五年。据一位美国官员透露,特朗普总统已拒绝了这一提议。但双方正在讨论时间表,这可能标志着谈判取得进展的迹象。
Original English
Tracy Mumford: In some ways, it's a repeat of how US Iranian policy has gone in the past, with many instances of US officials trying to buy time, delaying Iran's nuclear ambitions, but not ending them completely. People familiar with the current negotiations told the Times that in response yesterday, Iran said it would agree to a suspension of up to 5 years. President Trump has already rejected that offer, according to a US official. But the fact that the two sides are talking about timelines could be a sign of progress in negotiations.
Tracy Mumford: 昨天,两名国会议员因性行为不端指控而辞职。首先,来自加利福尼亚的民主党众议员 Eric Swalwell 表示将辞职,就在CNN和**《旧金山纪事报》公布了他曾性侵一名女工作人员(他对此予以否认)并与其他女性有不当行为的报道几天后。Swalwell 已暂停了他的加州州长**竞选活动,但越来越多的议员,包括他的许多民主党同事,表示支持迫使他也退出众议院。
Original English
Tracy Mumford: Yesterday, two members of Congress resigned amid allegations of sexual misconduct. First, Democratic Representative Eric Swalwell of California said he would resign just days after CNN and the San Francisco Chronicle published reports that he sexually assaulted a former staffer, which he denies, and engaged in misconduct with other women. Swallwell had already suspended his campaign for California governor, but a growing number of lawmakers, including many of his Democratic colleagues, said they would support forcing him out of the House, too.
Tracy Mumford: 作为回应,Swalwell 发表声明称,未经正当程序因一项指控而被开除出国会是错误的,但 quote,“我的选民因为我分心于我的职责而感到困扰,这也是错误的。”他并未提供辞职时间表。几小时后,来自德克萨斯的共和党众议员 Tony Gonzalez 也表示将离开众议院,因为他面临着对其行为日益增多的公众谴责。
Original English
Tracy Mumford: In response, Swallwell issued a statement saying that being expelled from Congress without due process over an allegation is wrong, but quote, "It's also wrong for my constituents to have me distracted from my duties." He didn't offer a timeline for his resignation. And hours later, Republican Representative Tony Gonzalez of Texas said he would also leave the House as he's faced growing outcry over his behavior.
Tracy Mumford: 他被指控胁迫一名女工作人员与其发生性关系。该女子后来自杀身亡。记录他与该女子关系的短信近期被公开。最初,该代表否认了这段关系,随后称这是一次“错误”,并表示他与她的死亡无关。昨天,在宣布辞职的一篇帖子中,他写道,quote,“凡事都有时,上帝对我们所有人都有计划。”
Original English
Tracy Mumford: He's been accused of coercing a staff member into a sexual relationship. The woman later killed herself. Text messages documenting his relationship with her recently became public. Originally, the representative denied the relationship, then called it a mistake and said he had nothing to do with her death. Yesterday in a post announcing his resignation, he wrote, quote, "There is a season for everything, and God has a plan for us all."
Tracy Mumford: 在两个州,是否在11月前举行特别选举来填补代表空缺,将取决于各自的州长。Swalwell 在加州的席位位于一个民主党占多数的选区,因此不太可能易手。在德克萨斯,Gonzalez 的选区在绘制时倾向于共和党,但在过去一年中,民主党在该类选区表现出乎意料地好。
Original English
Tracy Mumford: In both states, it's up to the governors if they want to call for special elections to replace the representatives before November. Swallwell's seat in California is in a heavily Democratic district, making it unlikely to change hands. In Texas, Gonzalez's district was drawn to favor Republicans, but Democrats have been performing surprisingly well in special elections in districts like that over the last year.
Pope Francis: >> 亲爱的阿尔及利亚兄弟姐妹们,愿和平与你们同在。
Original English
Pope Francis: >> Dear Algerian brothers and sisters, peace be with you.
Tracy Mumford: 本周,教皇方济各(Pope Leo)开启了为期10天的非洲之行,目的地包括阿尔及利亚、安哥拉、喀麦隆和赤道几内亚。这对教皇来说是一次重要的外展活动。尽管如此,他此行的开端却陷入了与特朗普总统的来回争执中,特朗普在教皇批评伊朗战争后对其进行了抨击。
Original English
Tracy Mumford: This week, Pope Leo kicked off a 10-day trip to Africa with stops in Algeria, Angola, Cameroon, and Equatorial Guinea. It's a big moment of outreach for the Pope. Though, the start of his trip has become tangled up in a back and forth with President Trump with Trump lashing out at the Pope after the Catholic leader criticized the war in Iran.
Mokco Rich: 但与教皇方济各同行的同事 Mokco Rich 表示,他在此行的重点依然是两个主要目标。
Original English
Mokco Rich: Still, my colleague Mokco Rich, who is traveling with Pope Leo, says he remains focused on two main goals for the trip.
Mokco Rich: 一是非洲现在拥有天主教徒人口最多。全球五分之一的天主教徒生活在非洲,而且它也是增长最快的天主教人口,因为那里有许多年轻人。所以,他肯定希望通过来到非洲来接触教会的未来。
Original English
Mokco Rich: One is that Africa has the largest population of Catholics now. One out of every five Catholics in the world live in Africa, and it's also the fastest growing Catholic population because there's so many young people. So, he definitely wants to reach out to the future of the church by coming to Africa.
Mokco Rich: 但此行的主旨是和平与团结。我认为和平部分是因为他希望在非洲谈论它,但他也正利用这次旅行作为平台,在全球范围内谈论和平。自美国和以色列开始攻击伊朗以来,他一直相当直言不讳,甚至在社交媒体上引起了特朗普总统的注意。
Original English
Mokco Rich: But the sort of overarching theme of the trip is peace and unity. And I think peace is partly that he wants to talk about it in Africa, but he also is using the trip to have a platform to talk about peace around the world. He's been pretty outspoken since the United States and Israel started attacking Iran to the point where he drew out President Trump on social media.
Mokco Rich: 所以我认为,他正在利用这个机会来谈论普遍原则。在他的演讲中,他已经谈到了违反国际法、减少不平等的必要性,以及尊重、尊严与团结。所以,我认为它们都是关于非洲的具体主题,也是他希望提升的更普遍的主题。
Original English
Mokco Rich: So I think that he is using this opportunity to talk about general principles. He's already in his speeches talked about violations of international law, the need for reducing inequality, respect and dignity and unity. So I think they're both kind of specific themes addressing Africa and more general themes that he wants to elevate.
Tracy Mumford: 明天是报税日,而《泰晤士报》一直在关注报税截止日期如何成为许多无证移民面临的重大难题。几十年来,IRS(美国国税局)默许鼓励无证纳税人申报他们的税务,数百万人都这样做了。一些人认为这是表明他们努力遵守规则并避免可能危及未来获得合法居留身份的途径的一种方式。但去年,随着IRS决定与移民官员分享更多信息,一反长期以来的隐私惯例,这一切都改变了。
Original English
Tracy Mumford: Tomorrow is tax day and the Times has been looking at how the filing deadline has become a major dilemma for many undocumented immigrants. For decades, the IRS implicitly encouraged undocumented taxpayers to file their returns, and millions did. It was seen by some people as a way of showing they were making an effort to follow the rules and to avoid jeopardizing any potential future pathway to legal residency. But that all changed last year when the IRS decided to share more information with immigration officials in a controversial break with long-standing privacy practices.
Tracy Mumford: 现在,许多无证人士担心申报可能会导致他们被驱逐出境。全国各地,帮助移民报税的组织表示,他们看到报税数量明显下降。这可能对移民产生广泛影响,使他们无法获得他们指望的退税。联邦政府也可能因此受损,可能损失掉无证人士每年缴纳的数十亿美元税款。一位政治科学家告诉《泰晤士报》,政府将税务与移民官员之间的这种新合作视为“向无证移民和混合身份家庭发出信息:处于阴影中更安全。”IRS 没有回应置评请求。
Original English
Tracy Mumford: Now, many undocumented people fear that filing could get them deported. Across the country, organizations that help immigrants with tax returns say they've seen a noticeable drop off in the number of filings. That could have widespread impacts for immigrants, preventing them from getting tax refunds that they were counting on. And the federal government could also take a hit, potentially losing out on some of the tens of billions of dollars in taxes that undocumented people pay every year. One political scientist told the Times that the new collaboration between tax and immigration officials is quote sending the message to undocumented immigrants and mixed status families that being in the shadows is safer. The IRS did not respond to a request for comment.
Tracy Mumford: 最后,在过去十年里,投资公司一直在吞并美国许多深受喜爱的食品品牌,收购了 Duncan、Popeye's、Jersey Mike's 的股份。现在,大笔资金正涌入贝果市场。过去人们认为,真正好的贝果既不赚钱也难以规模化。烘焙过程过于讲究,涉及到所有的发酵、卷制、发酵、水煮和烘烤。
Original English
Tracy Mumford: And finally, in the last decade, investment firms have been gobbling up many of America's favorite foods, acquiring stakes in Duncan, Popeye's, Jersey Mike's. Now big money is coming for the bagels. The wisdom used to be that really good bagels were not profitable and not scalable. The baking process is too finicky with all the proofing and rolling and rising and boiling and baking. But
Bagel Business Owner: >> 你不能告诉我这些贝果不是你见过的最漂亮的贝果。
Original English
Bagel Business Owner: >> you cannot tell me that these bagels aren't the prettiest bagels you've ever seen.
Tracy Mumford: 部分归功于美食博主和热衷于追逐潮流的顾客,对“完美贝果”的需求现已爆炸式增长。
Original English
Tracy Mumford: Thanks in part to food influencers and trend obsessed customers. Demand for the perfect bagel has now exploded.
Bagel Business Owner: >> 内部如此有嚼劲,外部又如此调味香脆。
Original English
Bagel Business Owner: >> And the inside is so chewy and the outside is so seasoned and crispy,
Tracy Mumford: 特别是在南部和阳光带,那里人口激增,而特色贝果店则显得新颖独特。
Original English
Tracy Mumford: especially in the South and the Sun Belt where populations are surging and specialty bagel spots can feel novel.
Bagel Business Owner: >> 他们每20分钟制作一批新鲜的,而且只有五种口味。
Original English
Bagel Business Owner: >> They're making fresh batches every 20 minutes and they have just five flavors.
Tracy Mumford: 投资公司现在正向这些企业注入数千万美元,希望将它们变成成功的典范。它们寄望于那些想要与大型连锁店与众不同的消费者。Einstein Brothers、Bugarers、Noah's(它们都属于 Panera)的增长一直停滞不前。但精品手工贝果,前景一片光明。
Original English
Tracy Mumford: Investment firms are now pouring tens of millions of dollars into those businesses, hoping to turn them into runaway successes. They're banking on people who want something different than the big chains. Einstein Brothers, Bugarers, Noah's, which are all owned by Panera, their growth has been stagnant. But boutique artisan bagels, game on.
Bagel Business Owner: 一位佛罗里达州的企业主,在疫情期间在家开始制作贝果,他说当他开了第20家店时,quote,“我突然收到了我听说过的每一家投资基金的电子邮件。”
Original English
Bagel Business Owner: One Florida business owner who got started making bagels at home during the pandemic said when he opened his 20th store, quote, "I suddenly got emails from every investment fund I'd ever heard of."
Tracy Mumford: 尽管如此,一些人仍然怀疑投资公司是否能长期推动贝果行业的发展,因为它们追求的是利润。一本关于私募股权的书的作者告诉《泰晤士报》,quote,“这种玩法总是试图将使其独特的东西普遍化。这是一个可能获利并让你遍布美国每条主街的举动,或者它可能惨败。”
Original English
Tracy Mumford: Still, some people are skeptical whether investment firms will boost bagels long-term as they chase profits. The author of a book on private equity told the Times, quote, "The play is always to take the thing that made it unique and try to universalize it. It's a move that can pay off and put you on every main street in America, or it can collapse spectacularly."
Tracy Mumford: 以上是今日的头条新闻。今天在《The Daily》节目中,我们将深入探讨科技行业在程序员开始尝试让AI代为完成工作时所发生的情况。您可以在《纽约时报》应用或您收听播客的任何地方收听。我是 Tracy Mumford。明天再会。
Original English
Tracy Mumford: Those are the headlines. Today on the Daily, a look at what's happened in the tech industry as coders have started trying to get AI to do their jobs for them. You can listen to that in the New York Times app or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Tracy Mumford. We'll be back tomorrow.
📌 文中提及的人物和组织
人物: Pope Francis, Donald Trump, JD Vance, Eric Swalwell, Tony Gonzalez
公司/组织: The New York Times, IRS