Paul: Erin Kelly is the CEO of Advanced Symbolics Inc. and she joins us on the line. How are you doing, Erin?

Erin Kelly: Great.

Paul: All right. Well, Polly has got some data for us about the NDP. Let's look into it. The NDP got 6% of the vote in the previous federal election. Where do things stand right now with the party?

Erin Kelly: Well, it's not much different. I suppose you could call it a little bit of an improvement. We're seeing them at around 9% today and the Conservatives and Liberals in a statistical tie at 44%.

Paul: I think with this party, I think what's most interesting is who is supporting them, who's behind them. Help us understand who are the people who are supporting the NDP right now.

Erin Kelly: It's interesting. I mean, the NDP has historically been seen as a party of the working class, but their base has actually changed quite dramatically. They've virtually lost the working class. And today we see that the NDP is really appealing more to that highly educated, upper middle class contingency. So we're seeing doctors and teachers, artists, journalists and some municipal workers who who have who have stayed with the NDP. And it's really interesting when we look at the working class that have stayed with the NDP, we see a really, really clear delineation. So if you're an auto worker or a steelworker, it used to be that your conflicts were with management. They were domestic, so to speak. And people look to the NDP at that time. But today, these workers, they see their challenges being more international, right, with tariffs, with Trump. And they've seen this bigger economic shift in, you know, throughout the last decade that they that they see themselves being threatened more by macroeconomic forces. But some municipal workers, like bus drivers and things like that, teachers still have conflict with management. Doctors are having battles with provincial governments. That's management. So those types of union workers are still with the NDP or some have moved to the NDP. But the ones who see themselves as having more macroeconomic issues have moved to the conservatives.

Paul: We have heard over and over again from different NDP leadership candidates that the party needs to return to the working class, to its working class roots. But what does, Paul, you have to say to that doesn't seem like it's going to be that easy. Can they do it?

Polly: No. No, no. In a word, no. And for two reasons. Number one, this group is already being well represented by the conservatives. And they're happy with the conservative leadership. They like Pierre Poilievre, they like Doug Ford, they like Danielle Smith. So these politicians, these leaders are appealing to them. So number one, until there is a dissatisfaction with these leaders, there's no way for somebody else to come in and suddenly pick up what they've spent years developing. The second challenge is that in order to get that demographic, they have to campaign on those issues. And I don't think the NDP can suddenly pivot to criticizing immigrants and things like that without looking inauthentic. I mean, the populist leaders are authentic. They're they've been that way. Pierre Poilievre has been a die hard conservative since he was a student. Right? He comes to it authentically and his criticisms are authentic to him, have been consistent. If the NDP suddenly changes their tune to have a whole different platform, they're not going to be seen as authentic. And being authentic is very important to this group, even more so than to other groups.

Paul: All right. I want to have a look at a breakdown that Pauline made of blue collar workers versus white collar workers. Help us understand what are we looking at right now.

Polly: So you'll see there's two different coloured bars. So the gold bars are the white collar workers. And what's important to them. What would score political points with them. And the blue bars are the blue collar workers. What they want to hear on the campaign hustings right now.

Paul: And what does this reveal of the NDP party?

Polly: Well, they have different priorities. So if you're in the NDP and you your constituency is now those white collar workers. So you don't see the Green Deal here, tax the rich. It's get rid of tax breaks for the rich, not tax the rich. And there's a very subtle difference there which we can go into if you like. But they're into youth unemployment. They want to see fair immigration policies. They're saying, hey, if we need doctors, let's bring in doctors and let them be doctors. Why do we have doctors driving cabs? These are one of the number one things that they want to see is getting the we're hiring. We're bringing in immigrants for their skills, but we're not utilizing their skills. Once they get here, they want to see that red tape go away. They want to see a real strategy, especially now with AI. They're concerned about their kids getting jobs and having careers. So that's what you really want to focus on there. And then getting rid of these loopholes in the tax system. In the blue collar, the number one thing is housing. And they've got this 3 million homes thing that's really popular online. And they want that because they want the jobs that go with it. These are construction workers, plumbers, electricians. Yes, we need housing. It is also going to be a boom to to their economy. And then you have this Canada proud element. This is the flag waving putting the flag on your car. Very proud Canadian. And it's not that white collar workers aren't proud Canadians. They are of course, but they're not flag wavers. And it's not something you can campaign on.

Polly: As the NDP begins to rebuild, what does it have to do to bring back some of those blue collar workers they have lost to the conservative? Or can they do that?

Polly: I just don't think they can. If they wanted to, they would have to. So you see here travel visas, you see immigration reform. So in this blue collar space, they see immigrants as a threat to their to their jobs. They they think Canada needs to severely limit immigration. And the white collar workers think we need to bring in more skilled immigrants. They want to see us lift the ban on students, for example. They think that's bad. They want to see. They think students are good for. The economy brings talent into the economy. So in some ways these groups are opposed. And the NDP historically has been, you know, in the last two campaigns, at least more in that gold bar realm. So for them to completely flip, I don't think they have the constituents that can do that. They don't have the party members that could credibly do that, and it wouldn't be seen as authentic. And like I said, it's very important to this group. This is part of the reason why Trump is so popular. They see him as somebody who does what he said he would do. So that authenticity is really important to this group. And I don't think the NDP suddenly flipping the messaging would be well received. They'd have to get a very special leader in to be able to do that.

Paul: Well, you speak about that authenticity. You know, right wing populists have successfully been able to tap into that anger, the grievance. Can the NDP potentially return to its populist roots and tap into those same sentiments?

Polly: I don't think so. I think the sentiments are just very different from the anger that the NDP has been expressing the past. I think they I think if they double down on look, look at these both these gold bars are they're great campaign issues. Right. How do we get our new Canadians working in the fields for which they trained? How do we how do we navigate AI, etc. for young people? Young people are really hurting in this economy. These are great campaign platforms that the NDP are aligned with already. They don't have to realign. They can credibly take up this mantra. They just have to focus on that. You know that that is what people are concerned about. They're really concerned about the economy. And these are great issues for the economy where the NDP would have credibility. I don't think they would have credibility. And some of these anger issues that the conservatives have picked up on.

Paul: Erin Kelly we are going to have to leave it there. Really appreciate the insights. Always a pleasure to have you and Polly on the program. Thank you.

Polly: Thank you.